More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’ • Hacker News Board

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#371

Post by srcreigh » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #319

srcreigh wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only hard question is hospital triaging. Who gets treatment if there's only room for 50% or 20%? Who can even decide? Does anyone volunteer to be excluded from medical care? This affects more than just covid patients too. Any way we choose, it amounts to sacrificing XYZk people so we can go back to living a normal life. I don't think that's an exchange most people are willing to take. And yes, lockdown measures a…

Hospitals have always been overwhelmed. Check out this 2018 article about the flu: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/01/08/hospital-overrun-by-flu-... Empty beds aren’t making money for hospitals so they often run close to capacity.

The question is of degree. Is "covid overwhelmed" meaningfully the same as "yearly flu season overwhelmed"? Based on Government actions, it seems like covid is much worse.

(I wish I had the epidemiological understanding to look at data and understand that conclusion, but I don't.)

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#372

Post by edmundsauto » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #326

afavour wrote: post #129

I'm vaxxed. I'm boosted. I'd very much like to be done. But my children cannot be vaccinated. As a parent of a young kid it kind of feels like everyone has just moved on. I know folks in here will tell me that statistically speaking my children are unlikely to be hospitalized and so on, and I agree. But I know enough kids who got COVID and suffered the symptoms (e.g. a months-long scratchy cough) that I'm not going t…

RSV is more dangerous than COVID-19 for most small children. We don't shut down society because of RSV. https://www.medscape.com/answers/971488-177692/what-is-the-p...

And we aren’t shutting society down because of the risk of C19 to small children either. The risk to children is part of that, but the risk to the adults who care for them is another reason. Additionally, staffing levels are impacted because the adults who have it.

Also, generically, when we have a super spreadable disease, we want to minimize transmission. This is done as a precaution against mutation (the more infections mean more mutations!) and because we don’t have a good idea what the long term effects are.

If you only look at the daycare closures in isolation, you’re not doing the calculus for the system. If there is one thing we’re learning during Covid, it’s how interconnected we all are.

Finally, is the acceptance of RSV a result of a good public health decision? Or have we, as a society, just massively underindexed on ignoring public health?

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#373

Post by pdabbadabba » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

xkbarkar wrote: post #233

stuckonempty wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They have also indicated that getting vaccinated does not reduce your ability to spread the virus That is not correct. Vaccination does reduce, but does not eliminate, transmission of the virus “ We found that both the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccines were associated with reduced onward transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from index patients who became infected despite vaccination.” https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105…

look at data for iceland, 92% of the adult population and spread is mainly among the double vaccinated. Triple is lower but that is expected to wear off ( if Isreal is to be beleiveied ). https://www.covid.is/data . No, vaccination dos not reduce spread of omicron. Not even a little. It does do a fantastic job of reducing hospitalisations among delta infected.

I fear you're committing the baseline fallacy. If 92% of the population is vaccinated then the virus can easily spread mainly among the vaccinated while still spreading among that population at a far lower rate than among the unvaccinated.

Think of it this way: assume that an unvaccinated person, on average, spreads COVID to 10 people and a fully vaccinated person spreads it to only 1. Then put 92 fully vaccinated people and 8 unvaccinated people (I.e., vaccination in proportion to the Icelandic population.) into a room full of people. The 8 unvaccinated people will infect 80 additional people, while the fully vaccinated will infect 92. Thus, "most" of the transmission was from vaccinated people, even though the vaccine reduced transmission by 10x.

And this is probably obvious, but its worth emphasizing that vaccinating those last 8 (percent of the) people would still have a hugely beneficial effect. If they were all vaccinated, then, in the toy example, they would infect a total of only 8 people instead of 80, leading to only 100 total cases, rather than 172.

Of course, even setting this aside, the bigger issue is that your casual parsing of one country's aggregate statistics is just no substitute for the actual scientific research that GP cited.

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#374

Post by ethbr0 » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

bequanna wrote: post #279

el_benhameen wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am with you on all of this, with one small, slightly hopeful note. My under-5 is enrolled in the Pfizer study, and they are not starting over from scratch. The existing cohort is going to receive a third dose at >2 months past their last dose (starting at the end of this month, probably), and then immunogenicity will be reassessed. I am incredibly frustrated that pfizer and the fda have been so slow to roll the vac…

Are the children in this trial part of high risk groups? I guess I am quite surprised to hear that there are drug trials for healthy children that young. In this case, the risk/reward seems very imbalanced almost to the point being unethical.

We give other vaccines to children that young [0]. As far as I know, there are really only two differences vs adult vaccines.

Regulatory - The FDA et al. have a higher standard for what they'll approve in young children, given their developmental stages and substantial post-vaccine expected lifespan.

Biological - Early childhood immune systems work differently than adults', in that they have substantially boosted innate/naive defenses, but much poorer adaptive defenses. Consequently, whether and at what dosage a vaccine will be effective changes.

(Welcome corrections if the above summary is inaccurate)

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolesc...

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#375

Post by el_benhameen » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

avidphantasm wrote: post #334

el_benhameen wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am with you on all of this, with one small, slightly hopeful note. My under-5 is enrolled in the Pfizer study, and they are not starting over from scratch. The existing cohort is going to receive a third dose at >2 months past their last dose (starting at the end of this month, probably), and then immunogenicity will be reassessed. I am incredibly frustrated that pfizer and the fda have been so slow to roll the vac…

Given that safety has been proven in 6mo to <5yo, and the dose for the 3yo and 4yo is in question (hence testing 3rd dose), I see no reason why doses one and two cannot proceed in these groups. Surely some exposure to the virus is better than none. At least give parents the option. My 3.7yo is the same weight as a median 5yo. My wife and I have had two doses of Pfizer and one Moderna booster. We would get my daughter…

I very much agree with this. The FDA seems to have decided that there is zero urgency with regards to under-5s and that they will continue to be belatedly reactive like they have for every other question during the pandemic.

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#376

Post by TimTheTinker » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

snowwrestler wrote: post #133

I feel like COVID has become like a marshmallow test for adults, where those who can manage their emotions and make rational decisions can set themselves up for greater long-term rewards. It looked for a while there like this could be a thing that gets “done”—that we would get a good vaccine into enough people, then incidence would decline so far it just goes away. That didn’t happen. We’re stuck with it for a forese…

> I know someone who almost quit a great job because they were mad about a vaccine mandate from their employer. [...] That is what failing the marshmallow test looks like.

Or perhaps it's a matter of personal principle. Personal conscience and conviction used to be held sacred in the US ... to the point that conscientious objectors wouldn't be forced to fight in wars (they could be assigned to work as medics in Army MASH units, for example, as my grandfather was in the Korean war). In modern US politics, it has become politically incorrect to have a personal principle or conviction that contradicts the approved viewpoint, or otherwise goes against the grain.

Because consideration for personal liberty has gone by the wayside, people are reacting by flatly refusing to be vaccinated. Many are convinced that the vaccine is actually harmful... and I'm convinced that viewpoint only gained traction because of the strong-arming going on in government.

It would have been much better to communicate clearly what we know, keep updating that communication regularly as new data comes in, fund efforts to develop and distribute vaccines, and let people choose without mandating anything. I'd bet the world would look very different today, and far more people would be vaccinated, if the US government had taken this route.

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#377

Post by Karsteski » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

ketzo wrote: post #220

wonderwonder wrote: post #124

I am one of those, triple vaxxed and done. CDC has now said that the majority of those that died had 4+ co-morbidities. They have also indicated that getting vaccinated does not reduce your ability to spread the virus. So if that is the case, there is no longer a real need to vilify the unvaxxed. CDC statement appears to indicate that the primary reason for people dying is poor physical health prior to infection. Wit…

> there is no longer a real need to vilify the unvaxxed I very, very much disagree with this. Unvaccinated people have a much higher rate of severe illness that requires hospitalization. Filling up hospitals unnecessarily kills people, and delays preventative care. People who are voluntarily unvaxxed without a medical necessity are, to be clear, 1) categorically stupid 2) responsible for the injury and death of other…

I very, very much disagree with this.

Obese people have a much higher rate of severe illness that requires hospitalization. Filling up hospitals unnecessarily kills people, and delays preventative care.

People who are voluntarily obese without a medical necessity are, to be clear, 1) categorically stupid 2) responsible for the injury and death of others.

-------------------------------------------

See how off-putting this gets very quickly?

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#378

Post by wombatpm » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

dekhn wrote: post #42

peregren wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine may have kept you out of ICU. It doesn't seem logical to change to a "let the chips fall where they may" based on this experience.

at this point I want better public health evidence from CDC etc that "the vaccine may have kept you out of the ICU". I need better quantification of the various risks before continuing to live an extremely inconvenient lifestyle to ostensibly save other's lives.

Here is where the details of COVID matter. Is it just a respiratory disease where once you are past the acute phase you are fine, or is it a multisystem disease where the long term consequences (kidney, heart, brain, blood clotting issues) we be on the rise for years and decades to come? The long term consequences (WHICH NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE) are frightening.

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#379

Post by bequanna » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

Larrikin wrote: post #325

bequanna wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the children in this trial part of high risk groups? I guess I am quite surprised to hear that there are drug trials for healthy children that young. In this case, the risk/reward seems very imbalanced almost to the point being unethical.

There are so many shots new borns and toddlers receive. It is not unusual at all for the young to receive vaccines.

Right…Vaccines we have been using for many years.

Re: More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’

#380

Post by holbrad » Mon, Jan 10, 2022, 7:48 PM UTC

bko wrote: post #318

snowwrestler wrote: post #133

I feel like COVID has become like a marshmallow test for adults, where those who can manage their emotions and make rational decisions can set themselves up for greater long-term rewards. It looked for a while there like this could be a thing that gets “done”—that we would get a good vaccine into enough people, then incidence would decline so far it just goes away. That didn’t happen. We’re stuck with it for a forese…

> It looked for a while there like this could be a thing that gets “done”—that we would get a good vaccine into enough people, then incidence would decline so far it just goes away... That didn’t happen. We’re stuck with it for a foreseeable future. Well, one can cry for the world that was, or one can get up and live in the world that is. Whats the magic number? There are places like New York that have 95% over 18 wi…

It's almost like the COVID vaccines don't work very well to prevent spread. (It clearly helps against being hospitalised)