Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#371

Post by dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:35 PM UTC

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #337

dannyw wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately I suspect it'll never be cheaper to build.

Second this. If inflation numbers keep going up 5% per month, the cost of literally everything will keep going up. There are labor shortages in a lot of industries which means employers need to compete on $/hr or workers will go to where they can make more. Not out of spite or greed, it will cost more to feed their family because those costs will have gone up. This also means the housing prices will probably continue…

5% year over year, not per month.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#372

Post by datavirtue » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

karolist wrote: post #252

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

I know a person who built his aerated concrete house working a day job over 3 years, he did 98% of the tasks himself and probably 95% of those alone whilst maintaining a full-time day job. He has a non-english blog with many pictures and process documentation and was a huge inspiration to me whilst I DIY'd my new 2 bdr apartment from this https://imgur.com/a/UXfmx0Y to this https://imgur.com/a/vGntuhJ in the span of…

YouTube...essential craftsman. Builds a spec house and explains every detail from lot prep to selling it. Huge video series. I watched the whole thing and it reminded me of the craftsman I worked with as I was growing up.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#373

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

[deleted]

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#374

Post by exabrial » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:40 PM UTC

I'm really happy Democrats/Republicans didn't try to "fix" the lumber crisis along with everything else they've completely f#@*ed. Let the free market ride! This is incredible news for low income families that have been waiting to build residences but were constantly priced out of market.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#375

Post by toast0 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:42 PM UTC

sneak wrote: post #141

octopoc wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…

I imagine the better way is to hire an experienced GC to go and check on it every day for you. It’s only “better” in terms of time (and perhaps experience), though.

> I imagine the better way is to hire an experienced GC to go and check on it every day for you.

Going every day is how you check the GCs work. A good GC should probably tell you the days where it's more important for you to come and check and what you should be looking for, but being there to notice things and ask questions helps keep things on track.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#376

Post by datavirtue » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:43 PM UTC

magicalhippo wrote: post #294

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut. Some close relatives bought a plot in a newly developed area, and tried to find a contractor to build their home. After listening to others in the area, it was pretty clear there was a couple of good, reputable ones and one avoid-at-all-costs. So they went with one of the reputable ones. The guy decides at some point…

LMAO!!! This is a perfect example. Not surprised, in fact this is what I would expect to happen. People have no idea how difficult it is to become a good builder and make money. It rarely happens.

Stick to buying spec houses. They will always be better than a custom home because people get to examine the house before they agree to buy it. Whole world changes when you are under contract for a build/remodel.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#377

Post by hbn » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:44 PM UTC

Tyr42 wrote: post #351

titzer wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. I'm not sure what you have in mind here, but my brother did an "owner build" in the true sense of the word and sunk every nail into every piece of wood, every pipe, every wire, every window, floor, staircase, insulation, lighting, built all the cabinets, everything. That was 8 years of his life. Two of those years he literally quit h…

I thought you were saying he sunk a nail into every pipe, and damn wouldn't that just suck.

It relieves pressure so your pipes never burst!

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#378

Post by IIAOPSW » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:47 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #210

IIAOPSW wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"factually incorrect news" is not the same thing as "fake news". Fake news is like a fake Rollex. The correctness of the time on the dial isn't the thing that makes it fake. Fake news is fraud without the monetary connotation. If I went and lifted the NYT CSS files and registered some intentionally misleading domain / company name like "Times of New York", I could go around saying whatever I want and a good number of…

Well, sure. So "fake news" is like a fake Rollex. But then, what the "regular" news are is a genuine Rollex, except the company secretly swapped out internal parts for low-quality, less-precise but much cheaper ones, and are selling the watch for the same price, with the same SKU[0]. Sure, buying the genuine watch supports the IP holders and gives you bragging rights, but both the genuine and the fake are bad choices…

There's legitimate gripes you can have with news, but you can't say they don't literally send a person out to conduct interviews and whatever. "Fake news" isn't just less precise or some subjective quality issue about the internals of the organization There is no internals. That's the part that's fake.

Fake news is like the man at the store told you it wasn't ticking because it just needs to be wound up, wouldn't let you take it out of the box, and you got home with it to find the dials are painted on and the inside is a few coins glued together. Whatever legitimate gripes one may have about Rollex cutting corners, it would be laughable to pretend like the time on their dials is just as useless as the ones painted on the fake watch and really its all just an opinion which one is "real".

What do you call something that looks deceptively like a watch but is actually just a prop? I'd call it a fake watch. What do you call a website that looks deceptively like a news organization but is actually just outrage headlines made from mad libs for clicks? I sure wouldn't call it real news.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#379

Post by singhrac » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:48 PM UTC

dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp wrote: post #371

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Second this. If inflation numbers keep going up 5% per month, the cost of literally everything will keep going up. There are labor shortages in a lot of industries which means employers need to compete on $/hr or workers will go to where they can make more. Not out of spite or greed, it will cost more to feed their family because those costs will have gone up. This also means the housing prices will probably continue…

5% year over year, not per month.

And to clarify... that's 5.3% over last August, when (some) prices were depressed because of the pandemic. Inflation is already slowing down.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#380

Post by jedimastert » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 1:50 PM UTC

exabrial wrote: post #374

I'm really happy Democrats/Republicans didn't try to "fix" the lumber crisis along with everything else they've completely f#@*ed. Let the free market ride! This is incredible news for low income families that have been waiting to build residences but were constantly priced out of market.

> low income families that have been waiting to build residences

I don't think building has been an option for low income families for a while, or maybe I just know of very few markets where land was the limiting factor instead of materials & labor.