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Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

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Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine if it was cheaper to buy a house and service the mortgage on it, than to rent. In such a case, is the rental market still a great thing? Yes I agree some rentals are necessary given the practical nature of the housing system. But once they become the cause of people being unable to afford to buy their own home it is an issue that needs addressing.

> Imagine if it was cheaper to buy a house and service the mortgage on it, than to rent. In such a case, is the rental market still a great thing? What I'm trying to say is that if the government is manipulating the market by giving tax advantages to the homeowner market, and tax disadvantages to the rental market, that it's not a good way to spend public funds. Home ownership is exactly cheaper because it's so subsi…

I’m not sure how charging taxes on landlords is spending public funds that they would have otherwise had if that tax was not present. There’s no loss of public funds here.

I’m also not sure how government policies that deprive people of the ability to own their own home (since they are priced out of the market by landlords, and landlords now own way too much of the housing stock) is a good thing.

Right now in NZ about 1/3 of people rent [1]. It’s an all time high across all age groups.

I’ve got nothing to back this up, but seems reasonable for people given the choice to own their property vs pay someone else, that they would want to own the property. Yes there are some that want to rent but i seriously doubt it’s anywhere near 1/3rd of the population. I also suspect a significant number of people who prefer to rent would not have this opinion anymore if house prices were not so inflated. Maybe 20-25% but no way the 1/3 of all Kiwis that we are seeing now.

Also does 1/6th of all residential property NZ need to be owned by someone with 20+ properties under their belt? [2] Is it good use of public funds to allow such behaviour rather than say encouraging (non residential rental) businesses to grow and expand

I’m not calling for elimination of rental properties, just a fair limit on them. In my opinion it’s more important every person is able to buy a single home than every landlord be able to buy as many homes as they want.

1. https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Reports/Housing-in-...

2. https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/mum-and-dad-landl...

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#372
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher supply would mean lower prices. By definition affordability issues and supply issues are the same barring some kind of regulatory capture or abuse of credit.

Credit abuse is subjective - accessibility to credit for all parties equally mean that it will continue to be profitable for property investors to buy up more and more of the housing supply without constraint. Building 'more' housing is not the answer. Preventing people from holding real estate as assets is the solution. We don't privatise ownership of water or air - two basic resources for humans to survive. Privati…

Holding realestate as an investment is the incentive for developing land and maintaining buildings.

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#373
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pour pretty much everything into S&P 500 plus have some cash for balancing. Yes i bought a few apartments when i was basically a kid in my early 20s but not in the last 15 years and not planning to ever buy any real estate unless i'll come to be able to do it on a proportion of my income that lets me completely ignore "investment" consequences of such a decision (say Yes commercial real estate is a good thing. Ther…

Thanks for your insight! > Single family house you'd want to live in, clearly "no". It's almost always a bad investment decision. Is this still true, though? Asset management companies - most famously Blackrock - are now pouring billions into acquiring exactly that: single family homes. And with prices growing in the double digit percentages every year across North America, it seems almost guaranteed in every metropo…

But we've been there so many times already. People complained on precisely the same 15 years ago, then prices crashed. There can't possibly be a way that (cyclically adjusted, long term) mortgage payment vs income will sustainably rise.

Just hang in there and in 3 years we will hear complains about "millions of people who bought houses are now with underwater mortgages because Fed rates are up and thus prices are down, and are being massively foreclosed". Because people are negative. No one will ever complain that "you can make millions by selling your house you bought on the cheap 20 years ago" or that "houses are easy to buy" (10 years ago or will be again 5 year from now). You will only hear complains from gamblers who lost the gamble - bought at the wrong moment of failed to buy at the right moment. But, in the end of the day, both are just gamblers.

We have reliable data on inflation-adjusted home prices since 1953. In 1953, median home price was $18K which is $180K inflation adjusted, now it is $314K (https://dqydj.com/historical-home-prices/). Mortgage rate in 1953 was 5% (https://www.jstor.org/stable/41833636), now it is 3.01%. Which results in 30-year payment being $1325 vs $966.28 per month or only 37% higher.

Now remember that median home size in 1953 was 917 sq ft and it is and it is 2333 sq ft. now., a 2.54x growth, and that real per capita GDP has grown 3.44x since 153, and feels like entire hysteria is completely made up. Which means, average productivity of US worker now buys more than 6x floor space (with mortgage) or about 5x (without mortgage), compared to 1953 which wasn't a time of housing shortage either.

We can't be "back to times of renters and landowners" because if that is the case - people can't buy places and have to rent - it would mean that landowners are not making a good return on their investment. Why would they continue to do the same thing? But as for me, i'm fine renting my whole life. A mediocre place is no better than a rental - a nice place takes a fortune to maintain and i'd much rather retire 5 years earlier than do that. Uber rich mostly live in rental condos and penthouses these days (while they may own lots of real estate, just not the kind of it they'd be ok living in).

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine if it was cheaper to buy a house and service the mortgage on it, than to rent. In such a case, is the rental market still a great thing? What I'm trying to say is that if the government is manipulating the market by giving tax advantages to the homeowner market, and tax disadvantages to the rental market, that it's not a good way to spend public funds. Home ownership is exactly cheaper because it's so subsi…

I’m not sure how charging taxes on landlords is spending public funds that they would have otherwise had if that tax was not present. There’s no loss of public funds here. I’m also not sure how government policies that deprive people of the ability to own their own home (since they are priced out of the market by landlords, and landlords now own way too much of the housing stock) is a good thing. Right now in NZ abou…

> I’m not sure how charging taxes on landlords is spending public funds that they would have otherwise had if that tax was not present. There’s no loss of public funds here.

It's not, but giving tax breaks to home owners is. Giving tax cuts to home owners and not home renters is by definition not equitable, you'd be favouring one group of people over the other. And if you look at who has it economically better, you'd statistically favour to give tax cuts to the economically better-off group most of the time in almost all countries. If you then, on top of that, tax landlords, it leads to even higher rents and even larger disadvantages for the renter class. That's something you haven't acknowledged, except by saying 'perhaps some of these renters can become owners, too!' -- and that's a fair point, but also wholly insufficient. We know not everyone can, needs or wants to be an owner. We know a rental market is important. Yet the tax manipulation you suggest very much disadvantages the usually poorer-than-average income rental group and favours the richer-than-average owner group.

> I’m also not sure how government policies that deprive people of the ability to own their own home (since they are priced out of the market by landlords, and landlords now own way too much of the housing stock) is a good thing.

What policies are you talking about that would deprive people of the ability to own a home?

> Right now in NZ about 1/3 of people rent [1]. It’s an all time high across all age groups.

Just like in the US. Just like in my country in Western-Europe. I'm not sure how large you think it should be, more, less? Should we strive towards anything at all?

> but seems reasonable for people given the choice to own their property vs pay someone else, that they would want to own the property.

That doesn't seem reasonable at all. Would you say the same for example, in a world with a shrinking population, large amounts of vacant land and cheap technology to mass-construct homes? In such a world, property prices would (ceteris paribus) drop over-time. Most people would be entirely disinterested in owning a home in such a world. Why not simply cheaply rent, wherever you decide to live, move as often as you want, as often as your tastes or moods change. Of course this world is hypothetical, but I use it to show that the choice to own a home isn't natural, it's conditional.

Now I agree that in the current market, it's preferred to own a home, because prices and rents are going up, but a mortgage can be more or less locked in. Of course people prefer a 30y mortgage contract at 2k per month and see their home equity triple in 30y, than to rent at 2k and see their rents triple in 30 years, for example. But the point is that this ownership preference is thereby conditional on what the market does. At the same time, every academic study, every central bank etc in the world is saying that low interest rates and tax breaks are pushing prices up. That means you're doing two things. The very condition you have that says 'owning is preferred' is in fact exacerbated by your policy to subsidise owning (with public funds), which screws over the rental market and everyone unable to own (which has always been 20-30% of the population, typically the poorest one). And second, you're favouring this generation over a future generation. That subsidy isn't sustainable, but creates massive wealth for current owners (who bought into a market at $200k homes) at the expense of future owners who are born into a market where a home costs $1 million. That also is poor public policy.

> Also does 1/6th of all residential property NZ need to be owned by someone with 20+ properties under their belt? [2] Is it good use of public funds to allow such behaviour rather than say encouraging (non residential rental) businesses to grow and expand

I don't really see the big issue with minor property concentration. They all must rent out at market rates. Someone with 20 properties (in a country with a few million properties) is not setting the price levels, but just following them, just like anyone with 1 property would. Would it help if the company or person who owned 20 properties, would instead be 5 companies or persons who owned and rented out 4 properties?

> Is it good use of public funds to allow such behaviour rather than say encouraging (non residential rental) businesses to grow and expand

I don't see what spending of public funds you're referring to, thereby also not sure how that prevents businesses to grow and expand.

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#375
post #226
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s utterly bonkers. The median single family home in Vancouver costs CAD $1.9M (USD $1.5M).

Even more bonkers is the average house price in Canada (all of it) is over $700k now. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/photos/canada-real-estate-pri... It’s half that in the US.

I wonder if thats because most of the Canadian population is localized to their mega cities like Toronto, Vancuver etc while US has a much larger rural population.

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#376
post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vancouver is famous all over the world as an attractive city (for example I live in Berlin, Germany, and many people I know would like to visit Vancouver). I've never been there, but I have heard it is next to the sea AND next to the mountains, and it lies in a first world country with a solid economy and good health care. Maybe the prices just reflect demand?

And likely it will not be affected much by the climate change.

Hasn't British Columbia where Vancouver is at, had terrible weather this year? Looks like Vancouver is actually more vulnerable to the climate crisis compared to other major Canadian cities; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57654133

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#377
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Credit abuse is subjective - accessibility to credit for all parties equally mean that it will continue to be profitable for property investors to buy up more and more of the housing supply without constraint. Building 'more' housing is not the answer. Preventing people from holding real estate as assets is the solution. We don't privatise ownership of water or air - two basic resources for humans to survive. Privati…

Holding realestate as an investment is the incentive for developing land and maintaining buildings.

I'm completing against the idea that 1 person can own 100 houses while the other 99 are forced to rent from that person.

Developing land is a no brainer. No need to keep making the rich richer while pricing out first time buyers from the market.

We can all afford to purchase water and there's no fear of it running out when investment is properly done to manage water as a resource. Surely we can do the same with housing so people can afford to buy.

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is caused by a whole number of factors that incentivise people to buy houses they won’t live in. Housing in Sydney is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. The more people spend on it the more it’s value increases hence attracting more investors who drive prices up. In order for this to stop the majority of the public will need to find this whole situation unacceptable. I find it absurd that citizens from…

And factors that incentivize people to buy houses with rooms they won't live in! I.e. owner-occupiers. I'm trying to say that these people are a major cause of high prices but they're the "us" and the "goodies" and even the "victims" so it's not popular to blame them. Instead, the popular opinion is to blame some outgroup like foreigners, nebulous "rich" people, "evil" investors, etc. One way for it to stop is for ow…

They are contributing to the problem no doubt but I doubt they are the major reason. The prices of apartments are also rising. I rented a studio for 10 years in Sydney and the price doubled in that time. I would have purchased it or one similar if not for the lending restrictions that properties had to be over a specific size. So instead of owning my own place I paid off half of the owners investment property while they delayed and refused repairs at every opportunity.

I am not demonising these people. I am just merely saying that the Australian government, the banking industry and Australian society at large believe that it’s more important that a citizen/non-citizen can lease a residential property than it is for an average citizen and wage earner to be able to purchase a property to live in.

I find it funny that at the beginning of the pandemic when people were buying up all the available toilet paper to sell at a markup they were “selfish” but somehow doing the same with shelter is not.

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#379
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for your insight! > Single family house you'd want to live in, clearly "no". It's almost always a bad investment decision. Is this still true, though? Asset management companies - most famously Blackrock - are now pouring billions into acquiring exactly that: single family homes. And with prices growing in the double digit percentages every year across North America, it seems almost guaranteed in every metropo…

But we've been there so many times already. People complained on precisely the same 15 years ago, then prices crashed. There can't possibly be a way that (cyclically adjusted, long term) mortgage payment vs income will sustainably rise. Just hang in there and in 3 years we will hear complains about "millions of people who bought houses are now with underwater mortgages because Fed rates are up and thus prices are dow…

To put things further in perspective, if you put same $18K into S&P 500 in 1953, assuming 30% dividends tax and dividends reinvestment, now you'd have $13.3M, or $23700 per month after-tax dividend income (averaged), which is more than enough to rent any place, in any location. People who are saying that something was wrong with housing prices really need a reality check.

(caveat is that ETFs did not exist till 1975 so it wasn't as easy for a small-time retail investor to put $18K into S&P 500 in 1953, so this is not entirely apples to apples comparison).

Re: Billions in 'unknown' funds flowing into Canada's housing market [video]

#380
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holding realestate as an investment is the incentive for developing land and maintaining buildings.

I'm completing against the idea that 1 person can own 100 houses while the other 99 are forced to rent from that person. Developing land is a no brainer. No need to keep making the rich richer while pricing out first time buyers from the market. We can all afford to purchase water and there's no fear of it running out when investment is properly done to manage water as a resource. Surely we can do the same with housi…

>Developing land is a no brainer

Yes, because you can proffit by doing it.

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