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Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

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371–380 of 469 posts

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#371

Wow, this was calculated to make me feel old. I actually own some of the more speculative non-fiction books on "Cyberspace," in particular the representational aspect. I did expect some higher levels of abstraction to be present when it comes to working with data, browsing file systems, making connections, and so on. I was not necessarily expecting wireframe graphics, but yes, more abstraction. The closest I have see…

Which books would those be? What exactly was your part in your grey hat days?

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#372

Wow, this was calculated to make me feel old. I actually own some of the more speculative non-fiction books on "Cyberspace," in particular the representational aspect. I did expect some higher levels of abstraction to be present when it comes to working with data, browsing file systems, making connections, and so on. I was not necessarily expecting wireframe graphics, but yes, more abstraction. The closest I have see…

This certainly takes me back. I was a wee teen in the late '90s, but I too remember so many commercials and movies that represented the Internet as a new paradigm for visually-oriented computing. Not really skeumorphic designs of file folders and desktops and 'My Briefcase' icons.

I still think about that GUI Tom Cruise navigates in Minority Report. The film is almost 20 years old, and yet GUI design today seems to be focused on hiding more and more elements, instead of making the canvas bigger to display more info.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#373
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expected RISC to overtake CISC much sooner than it did. I expected IPv6 to be adopted quickly. I expected 6GB to be more storage than I could ever fill. I expected Windows to be quickly dismissed and Unix to become the standard. I expected to have a screen built into my glasses by now.

Regarding screens in glasses: where is the hold up? I've been thinking of prototyping something for the past few weeks (only thinking, hence my question).

Enough battery for all-day power being able to fit in a device that doesn't look like complete shit (i.e. looks sufficiently like normal glasses or sunglasses) seems to be the problem.

However, as far as I can tell every major tech company still expects that problem to be solved and for them to be the Next Big Thing. I don't know why else they'd be putting so much money & PR into consumer AR efforts when it's niche at best, so long as you have to hold up a device to use it, unless they fully expect hardware development to come through in the nearish future and make AR glasses the next smartphone, in terms of becoming must-have and driving the next wave of human-computer interaction.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#374

I thought that by now we would get something like a global virtual reality simulation (something like one in Ready Player One)... instead now we have Facebook, Instagram, Twitter. Huge disappointment to see so much talent so much wasted.

I think that's what Fortnite, PUBG, Minecraft and WoW represent. Obviously the traditional, text+image based sites like FB and Twitter dominate global traffic, but as I understand it, WoW did act as a type of public square for a lot of communities.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#375
I did not expect html, http, or even tcp/ip to become dominant. I didn’t expect CSP centralization. Video over http/tcp? You have got to be crazy. Portable code in text (JavaScript) seemed ridiculous.

I was quite young at the time writing file sharing and chat network applications, and did a lot of experiments building WANs for doom. Most things I was interested required single multicast and rebroadcasted packets with low ping time over a fully-decentralized network. Also, tiny bits of mobile code that would load dynamically as you use a network application. Binary serialization versus plaintext. Progressive data loading, especially with fractal image formats. This wasn’t really about the future though; it was how things worked. Looking back, technology was mostly not about how to do things better, it was about raw horsepower to do things quickly and poorly. A lot of things changed with ISPs too, because they started throttling uploads and now mine doesn’t even allow open ports. P2P ping time among neighbors is much longer than cloud ping, which is absurd. A lot of this has to do with security, which is a bigger desk than I thought it would be.

So, I was wrong about a lot of stuff.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

dead end minimum wage type job Don't worry, the big tech companies are spending ungodly amounts to make this happen.

Will probably be about as successful as last time.

What "last time"? They've been pretty successful so far. There's more programmer jobs today than ever.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#377
post #26

I thought that giving everyone in the world access to the sum total of human knowledge via the internet would be all upside. And I thought that conspiracy theories were harmless fun.

This. At bare minimum, a better-informed population that would be increasingly resistant to gov’t and corporate propaganda. And in a sense, that kind of came to pass. Nobody believes _anything_ the government says anymore, and skepticism is at all-time highs. It’s just… everything. I also bet very heavily against the widespread popularity of video on the net, not due to any technical limitations, but simply because r…

> a better-informed population that would be increasingly resistant to gov’t and corporate propaganda.

This never came to be, because it has one gaping flaw; it assumes governments and corporations wouldn't also figure out how to use the Internet.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#378
post #33

We wouldn’t make applications. Rather we’d deliver components which could interoperate via a binary contract. Components would be “snapped” together by non-programmers to make an application. I suppose that pieces of this became true with the proliferation and adoption of open source. Rather than a binary protocol, HTTP came out on top. SharePoint brought us WebParts which tried to put the power in the hands of busin…

> Components would be “snapped” together by non-programmers to make an application.

That's basically what Salesforce is.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#379

I would say no current programming environment has matched the productivity of Hypercard for front end GUI development. The biggest advances have been distributed version control and dependency management systems.

It's really a shame what happened to the possibilities for end-user programming/scripting at the OS level. The landscape today is quite dreary. Ask a regular person to "make a button" in their computing environment and they can't, because usually their only choice is to learn a full-fledged language and development environment. And this is in a situation where users make prodigious use of buttons in their daily lives.

Re: Ask HN: 90s programmers, what did you expect the future of tech to look like?

#380

Not quite in the 90's but a bit later I was sure that when Moore's Law would stop we would see the trend move to cores. I wrote an article[1] about this change and how we should all prepare for it :-D If I could tell my young self that as of 2021 we are not talking about kilo- or mega-cores but that my new M1 which I am very excited about is a mere 8, I would have been severely disappointed. [1] https://www.gamasutra…

Aside from GPUs, we have progressed on cores, just not as fast as we thought, and multi-core hasn't been around for all that long. Multi-chip modules like AMD's chiplet approach were needed to get things like 64-core Threadrippers. I can't imagine trying to get 64 full CPU cores onto a single die at an acceptable yield.
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