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Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

reuters.com

371–380 of 688 posts

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#371
post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

if crypto is a ponzi scheme, then isn't cash also a ponzi scheme? cash can become just as worthless, when no one believes in it anymore, just ask zimbabwae. personally, if i'm going to be in a ponzi scheme, at the very least I want something with a limited supply. Also, what other option do we have for store of value? Equities are way overvalued beyond reason. Fixed income/cash are becoming worthless very quickly. re…

>if crypto is a ponzi scheme, then isn't cash also a ponzi scheme? cash can become just as worthless, when no one believes in it anymore, just ask zimbabwae.

That's not how it works. You need to destroy the local economy first. For example, repossessing land of productive farmers and shutting farms down causes famines. If the local economy wasn't destroyed people would rush and start exporting their local products to markets that actually value them. You would end up with a lot of inflation but not Zimbabwe levels.

I recently read up on Venezuelan capital controls and honestly the only thing that came to my mind is that the politicians there want to destroy the currency as much as possible as if a functioning currency were the spawn of Satan that must be prevented at all costs. I'm personally surprised it takes that much to destroy a currency. You pretty much have to be actively evil to get to Venezuela levels.

Given enough care currencies can recover from pretty much anything as long as the local economy stays alive and relationships with foreign countries are being maintained. The only thing that cannot be recovered is the lost potential and time of all the individuals that make up the country.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Currencies are used to purchase things. If the purchasing power of 1 BTC changes dramatically, it matters.

You're assuming I care how much something costs in dollars.

Yeah, because websites won't adjust the price in crypto for goods and services if its price relative to dollars drops.

I'm long on crypto myself, but come on. This crash still affects the prices of goods and services, unless all you're buying is other crypto and nothing else. We are nowhere near the point where shops don't assume they have to check the bitcoin/usd cost every few minutes to adjust their pricing.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#373
post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

For context: - The stock market crash of 1929 was a ~25% crash - The dot com bubble crash was also roughly a ~25% drop - The 2008 market crash was a roughly 20-30% drop Various coins have now lost 10-30% of their value in the course of a couple of days. But it's just steam being let off? No big deal? Business as usual? If the same thing happened to the actual markets it would be another historic event.

For additional context though: BTC price was $9426 a year ago today. It's down 30-40% on a month view, but up 400% on a year view

The stock market 4Xing in a year would be quite historic

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#374
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's because Bitcoin is very tightly held, and the amount of tradeable float is very very small compared to holdings. By the diamond-est of hands: those who lost their keys.

Which effectively make the total amount of live tokens (the rough equivalent of share count or money supply in stocks or currencies) more deflatory than useful for any application outside of pyramid games. All projections of market cap that include the dead tokens are even more worthless than other market cap projections. Problem is: there's no way to tell the dead from the merely sleeping. The bigger the share of da…

But surely most of the coins were lost when they were cheap rather than now? If that's the case most of the deflation stemming from lost coins already happened and isn't going to happen in the future, so it's not really a big issue.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#375
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem like anyone believes cryptos are supposed to be currencies any more. All the talk around them is around them being a new, exciting, and potentially very lucrative investment class. If you go to Coinbase's front page, you see that you can buy and sell them, like you can with Robinhood. It's not trying to be a PayPal. The currency-ness does serve an important purpose. It helps bring in investment for th…

USDC, DAI, USDT are all used more than ever, orders of magnitude more People dont have to talk about them as currencies because they just work No different than cellular reception in an underground subway, you dont have to think about it anymore

> USDC, DAI, USDT are all used more than ever, orders of magnitude more

Even these cryptos aren't being used as currencies per se. They're popular, sure, but they're popular because A) they allow traders to move funds between crypto 'investments' without converting to fiat (i.e. without triggering cap gains), and B) They allow investors to "avoid market volatility" (but in a manner far riskier than fiat, given that even DAI or USDT could go to zero tomorrow).

...but they're still not currencies. Nobody is buying a hamburger with DAI.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency is a misnomer. Most cryptos aren't trying to be currencies in the traditional sense. For example, RAI is a stablecoin on Ethereum that's not pegged to any fiat currencies. You can think of RAI as a stable form of ETH.

What does that even mean?

It means that ETH which is a decentralized cryptocurrency can be used as a collateral for an algorithmic stablecoin called RAI that adjusts its price based on the price of ETH from a Uniswap price feed and a PID controller and arbitrage. To mint RAI you need to deposit ETH. The goal of RAI is to create a stablecoin which dampens the price movements of ETH over long periods of time.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wouldn't disappear, money is just changing hands. Bitcoin doesn't add or destroy any value, it's just a speculative way of zero-sum trade. When you buy bitcoin, someone else gets your money.

When the price crashes money disappears.

>When the price crashes money disappears.

Thought experiment. I buy 1 BTC and pay you $50k. The current market price is $35k. Where did the $15k go?

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#378
post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

Bitcoin & Ether are both down -40% from a week to a month ago. Both of those are, in theory, large enough that investors "letting off some steam" shouldn't move them that much. If $SPY dropped 40% we'd all call it a crash. This isn't that different. Also unlike the stock market, crypto is under the delusion of being a viable currency. If USD or Euro dropped even 20% we'd start questioning if it's a recession, much le…

Perspective: BTC and crypto in general retraced to January 2021 levels. Since the article was printed we have recovered 25% of that correction.

The perspective is volatility.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, it's because the hype isn't around the technology (which is the interesting part and for the most part, why we're on HN), it's around the speculation. From the outside, looks like a bunch of gamblers constantly getting each other off on whether their bets will make them millionares. It's just...sad...at a level.

I agree. But also try taking a step back: why are they gambling? Sure, greed is ever-present in human history—that's a given. But also listen to the doubt in the present establishment. I know what it's like to be poor and what the banks do to you in that state. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that there's so much being thrown at it. The chances of and potential returns are almost guaranteed better than a savi…

Almost guaranteed? If one put all that money into S&P indexes instead of coin, they'd be up 20% versus betting on crazy coin returns.

Most people aren't equipped to handle the volatility of the coin market and most people don't understand that you don't actually lose until you realize losses. Therein creates almost more guaranteed stress than actually making money, as we're seeing now with all the bag holders from the past couple months getting destroyed.

Re: Crypto crash deepens, stocks slip

#380
post #11

As an outside observer, who has no crypto holdings at all, but is very deeply invested in the public stock market with a heavy weight on technology stocks... this doesn't look like a crash to me at all. It just looks like some steam being let off and old investors cash out and new investors get more comfortable with how much and where to invest. I consider crypto currency as it is to be an elaborate Ponzi scheme (per…

Conspiracy theories aside, one thing to keep in mind is that cryptocurrency market is largely unregulated. This means that it can be and does get manipulated by the major players (aka "whales").

The likes of Goldman Sachs, hedge funds, etc. are still able to manipulate the fiat and equity markets despite all the regulation - just imagine what happens on the unregulated cryptocurrency end. An example is that Coinbase was fined a couple of months ago for wash trading: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8369-21

It looks like prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from the low this morning by 20%+. So this was perhaps a flash crash, though the cryptocurrency market is always highly volatile.

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