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More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

nytimes.com

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Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#371

Post by Izkata »

baja_blast wrote: post #169
fumbly wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current plan is to 6x the funding for gain-of-function research, from $200 million to $1.2 billion, in the name of pandemic prevention. That's one serious reason for wanting to investigate whether gain-of-function research may have caused the current one. The risks of such research have been in open debate for years, and the Obama administration even banned it for a while. It's not a far-fetched possibility, and…

> The current plan is to 6x the funding for gain-of-function research, from $200 million to $1.2 billion, in the name of pandemic prevention. Do you have a source for this? Because if true this would be extremely frightening, even if Covid is natural the research is just too risky. GoF research should be banned, I mean it's entire justification for conducting this research in the first place is that it "helps predict…

> even if Covid is natural the research is just too risky. GoF research should be banned

This was actually the reason we stopped the research in the US in 2014: Risky with no clear benefit. It was restarted in 2017 after investigations and new guidelines for the research to hopefully improve safety measures.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#372

Post by mistermann »

brippalcharrid wrote: post #361
mistermann wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely epistemology and logic must be part of scientific curriculum, no? Maybe some scientists don't take it seriously.

I don't think that people are doubting the virologists' epistemic ability; it's the fact that their reasoning seems to be motivated by a desire to deflect blame away from the NIAID/CCP/virology field which is the problem.

Is that (motivated reasoning) not a textbook failure of epistemic ability though?

I mean, I suppose from a pragmatic standpoint (the world as it is) it's starting to get into the realm of enlightenment, but if friggin' scientists can't think clearly, then perhaps their new found "five star", god-tier status in society should be knocked down to four or four and a half stars.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#373

Post by LatteLazy »

Izkata wrote: post #369
LatteLazy wrote: post #201

If I have a virus, how do I tell if its natural or man made? Unless someone has gone out of their way to add an indicator won't all viruses just be the same? It's not like you can leave finger prints or a "made in China" sticker on a virus right?

It depends on if by "man made" you mean "engineered" or "artificial selective pressure". If it was full-on engineered, as in splicing RNA from different viruses together (or other such direct modifications), there would actually be fingerprints based around the method of splicing used. Artificial selective pressure (introducing a virus to different hosts and selecting for desired random mutations) would look natural.

What fingerprints does RNA splicing leave? I thought CRISPR was pretty seamless, does it insert itself as well or something?

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#374

Post by dkersten »

austincheney wrote: post #366
dkersten wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying that the CCP did, in fact, let people talk about it? That they didn't cover it up for months before admitting that there was a pandemic, after it had already spread around the world? That they did, in fact, let the WHO investigate last year rather than a year later? That the WIV didn't research bat-borne SARS-like coronaviruses? There's also the reports about the leaked state department cables from 201…

I am not providing any opinion as to the origins of the virus. You seem to believe otherwise due to poor objectivity. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory

No, I'm saying that CCP's behaviour is suspect and the fact that WIV did, in fact, openly research the exact type of virus that caused the outbreak and that the first reports were from Wuhan is a pretty crazy coincidence. Couple those two things together and occam's razor would suggest this needs more attention.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#375

Post by ChicagoDave »

kubanczyk wrote: post #357
brutal_chaos_ wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No answer will be given, of course, but perhaps it can open one's mind to new avenues of thought that may help lead to an/the answer.

In short, enlarging the hypothesis space.

The vulnerable can also be anyone or a subset. I suspect it's inevitable for someone to design a custom virus.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#376

Post by brippalcharrid »

mistermann wrote: post #372
brippalcharrid wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that people are doubting the virologists' epistemic ability; it's the fact that their reasoning seems to be motivated by a desire to deflect blame away from the NIAID/CCP/virology field which is the problem.

Is that (motivated reasoning) not a textbook failure of epistemic ability though? I mean, I suppose from a pragmatic standpoint (the world as it is ) it's starting to get into the realm of enlightenment, but if friggin' scientists can't think clearly, then perhaps their new found "five star", god-tier status in society should be knocked down to four or four and a half stars.

I was being way too generous; wilful blindness would be closer, and it's combination of people

- making a conscious decision not to think the unthinkable ("work in my scientific sub-discipline has caused a disaster")

- attempting to avoid particular repercussions for their field, such as a world-wide ban on gain-of-function research (plenty of scientists would want to avoid what they might see as a disproportionate knee-jerk reaction from lay members of the general public which hindered work in a field that they believed to have great promise for the future, and they might believe that this decision should be in the hands of experts).

- trying to prevent the loss of sources of funding for virological research and the resulting impact on their career

and finally, and most importantly

- being moved by a misplaced sense of humanitarian responsibility to try to prevent the escalation of geopolitical tensions between superpowers ("virologists the world over have a vital role to play at this present moment in standing shoulder to shoulder in heading off the looming threat of war").

If I were cynical, I'd think that recent changes to reporting on the subject were as much a result of changes to the occupancy of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. as they were to evidence that has come to light over the last few months.

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#377

Post by mistermann »

brippalcharrid wrote: post #376
mistermann wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that (motivated reasoning) not a textbook failure of epistemic ability though? I mean, I suppose from a pragmatic standpoint (the world as it is ) it's starting to get into the realm of enlightenment, but if friggin' scientists can't think clearly, then perhaps their new found "five star", god-tier status in society should be knocked down to four or four and a half stars.

I was being way too generous; wilful blindness would be closer, and it's combination of people - making a conscious decision not to think the unthinkable ("work in my scientific sub-discipline has caused a disaster") - attempting to avoid particular repercussions for their field, such as a world-wide ban on gain-of-function research (plenty of scientists would want to avoid what they might see as a disproportionate k…

To me, much of this is a subset of causes of epistemic failures (plus dishonesty, selfishness) - I have witnessed first hand many people who consider themselves to be better at thinking because they are a scientist, or are scientific thinkers, or believe in The Science. To me, this is like a form of intellectual cancer in our society.

> being moved by a misplaced sense of humanitarian responsibility to try to prevent the escalation of geopolitical tensions between superpowers ("virologists the world over have a vital role to play at this present moment in standing shoulder to shoulder in heading off the looming threat of war").

> If I were cynical, I'd think that recent changes to reporting on the subject were as much a result of changes to the occupancy of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. as they were to evidence that has come to light over the last few months.

I actually consider these to be fairly valid motivations. True, it violates strict epistemology, but if it is done with full knowledge at least it is understandable. However, I haven't encountered many examples of people who acknowledge that they are lying for the greater good - rather, it seems much more common that people are lying to themselves and others, motivated by a fear of Trump (or whatever the boogeyman du jour is). If lying is done with awareness, I seem to consider it less dangerous (which is perhaps a dumb way to think...."it depends" I imagine).

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#378

Post by Anapologetos »

sitkack wrote: post #334
divbzero wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add one more data point, for the past year I’ve been following this story passively — reading articles I’ve come across but never searching actively — and this is the first I’ve heard of the coincident location of the Wuhan CDC.

Replying to you and @smallnamespace, not only are we in extremely small silos, you can realize how small the silo is by 1) taking sporadic notes, but not full urls 2) attempting to follow your same trail again I often find I can't even, with knowledge of what I read/saw find the same sources again, using the same tools and sites without basically taking detailed notes. The idea that information is public and can be c…

@sitkack

Check out Hunchly - https://www.hunch.ly/

"Hunchly automatically collects, documents, and annotates every web page you visit."

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#379

Post by stirfish »

jl2718 wrote: post #352
stirfish wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We went pretty quickly from "it started somewhere in China" to beating elderly asian people to death in the streets. I think the backlash was more against the justifications people use to be awful.

Who is “we”? The line of thinking that starts with COVID19 and ends with violence against grandmothers seems so preposterous that it should be tested objectively to see if it exists. There are reports of huge increases in hate crimes during a year full of brazen violence and media-fueled racial tensions. This is most easily explained by a trend in classification rather than victimization. That is, law enforcement is…

>The line of thinking that starts with COVID19 and ends with violence against grandmothers seems so preposterous that it should be tested objectively to see if it exists.

Okay

>There are reports of huge increases in hate crimes during a year full of brazen violence and media-fueled racial tensions.

You don't think #ChineseVirus had anything to do with those racial tensions?

>This is most easily explained by a trend in classification rather than victimization. That is, law enforcement is now documenting something that has been going on for a long time. This is certainly true of the national crime victimization survey, which listed Asians for the first time in the 2018 report, released at the end of 2019.

Here's the report from 2010: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/ascii/cv10.txt

It lists Asians.

>I do expect to see increases in Asian victimization in the 2020 report, but the motivations are most likely under the banner of social justice.

What?

Specifically, what the fuck?

>Nobody was looting and burning down cities in protest of the coronavirus.

No, but they're torching Chinese restaurants because they are Chinese. Here's one example among many:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/officials-look-into-chi...

Re: More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins

#380

Post by CRConrad »

trompetenaccoun wrote: post #277
hayst4ck wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 2 concrete distinct ideas, but many are conflating both of the ideas. It results in it being very hard to have a conversation because it's unclear which idea people are talking about. Idea 1: SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a lab Idea 2: SARS-CoV-2 was in/around/related to WIV and escaped Idea 1 was widely debunked by American scientists. Idea 2 is an idea that there is a considerable body of circumstantial ev…

There is a 3rd option. I'm going to repost a comment I made a few days ago regarding the labs in Wuhan: The "Wuhan Institute of Virology" is named in a couple of news articles and scientific publications. However what is rarely discussed is that the Wuhan CDC (武汉市疾病预防控制中心), which also has a virus lab and was also researching coronaviruses is in walking distance from that wet market! I took a screenshot of it, in the…

> However what is rarely discussed [...] It's absurd that this is almost never talked about anywhere.

Not all that rarely IME, and certainly not "almost never". It's popped up every now and then for over a year now; here on HN among other places. (OTOH, maybe that was you I saw. :-)

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