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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#371

Post by dragonwriter »

thu2111 wrote: post #282
btilly wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fortunately, as media reassure us, today voting fraud simply cannot happen: you'd need a whole conspiracy of dozens of people, a real, as one could call it, machine. This I find impossible to believe. How hard is it to intercept mail-in ballots, sign them, then mail them in? Who knows that you did so? I personally find it very implausible that in both elections that Trump was in he produced results about 3% better th…

That's not the type of problem that usually happens with postal voting. Intercepting votes like that on a large scale would be indeed hard. But what people do get caught doing quite regularly and not just in the USA are things like: 1. Going door to door and giving people blank ballots, pressuring people to fill them in, right in front of them. As a 'helpful service'. 2. Dominant members of the families taking the ba…

> Trump in particular shouldn't be under suspicion here because he has been strongly encouraging his supporters to vote in person, where fraud is much harder to pull off:

That...doesn't follow.

If I was planning massive mail-in voter fraud/sabotage/suppression, I'd probably be overly sensitive to the possibility that my opponent would also do what they could in that direction (or, in the case of unfocussed sabotage efforts, that my voters’ ballotd would be at risk from my own efforts), which would make me more likely to encourage my voters to vote in person, so that only my opponent’s votes would be at risk.

So what you are pointing to, inasmuch as it says anything relevant, makes Trump more suspicious, not less.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#372

Post by rhinoceraptor »

7952 wrote: post #308
ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

A feature of simple paper based systems is that normal people can understand the system and can even help to validate the process. It may have flaws, but they are pretty apparent to everyone. Technology and encryption seems far less easy to understand and more open to malicious complaints. A voter who doesn't trust the current system is not going to trust block chains or hashing algorithms.

The other feature of paper systems is that they're physical.

Casting 10,000 fraudulent votes is 10,000 times harder than one fraudulent vote, unlike an attack on a digital system where if you have an attack, there is likely no significant difference.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#373

Post by tastyfreeze »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #285
tastyfreeze wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are all states that should have an equal say in what president is elected. A republic of states is beholden to the states. Each state is beholden to its population.

"We the People of the United States, ..." The United States is not a union of separate republics. The method of electing the president is supposed to reflect the sovereignty of the people, with most of the electoral votes being apportioned according to population. The Great Compromise did give the small states disproportionate representation (an extra two electors, independent of population), but most electors are st…

So you are arguing for no more states. I very much enjoy the ability to move to another state on a whim if I dont like the state government. Under a popular vote we might as well disband congress. No need for state representation in a direct democracy.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#374

Post by barbacoa »

gitrog wrote: post #349
jcadam wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are being willfully obtuse when they say the kind of fraud being alleged isn't possible. A certain political party spent that last six months forcing rule changes on swing states vis a vis mail in voting that you can't compare this year's election to any that came before. Most of the fraud allegations (at least the ones where the numbers would be large enough to make a significant difference) revolve around th…

> And please, kicking out GOP poll watchers (and only GOP poll watchers) and blocking their ability to observe Could you please provide a source for this?

That is what is being alleged in multiple swing state lawsuits by the GOP.

https://youtu.be/DAh_stm5Bdc

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#375

Post by umvi »

majormajor wrote: post #186
umvi wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if you believe Wyoming should just be steamrolled by California's desires 100% of the time, why shouldn't Wyoming secede from the union? In fact, why should any "small states" join the union in the first place if they are just going to be steamrolled by California and New York?

I would love small states to secede... I think, though, that they would realize they need the big states to pay for shit, protect them, etc...

Canada and EU don't seem to mind having tiny militaries and relying on the US protecting them. Small states can just be their own countries that pay some small % of GDP for USA to protect them with military.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#376

Post by adjkant »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #326
tptacek wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half a percentage of the AZ vote is over 16,000 votes. See why this crime doesn't make sense?

16,000 votes is only a half a percentage of people in AZ committing voter fraud, and that's assuming they each only submit one fraudulent ballot. Apparently people have been caught submitting dozens of ballots in the names of people they didn't have any right to. If 0.02% of people did that, it flips the state. You can also make the "doesn't make sense" argument about voting itself, since exactly zero of the states w…

> Apparently people have been caught submitting dozens of ballots in the names of people they didn't have any right to.

You'd think there'd be evidence for that somewhere, but you're just parroting die-hard Trump supporter talking points now off Twitter with no evidence. It's very clear you are not talking about any of this with good faith.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#377

Post by umvi »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #288
umvi wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well if you believe Wyoming should just be steamrolled by California's desires 100% of the time, why shouldn't Wyoming secede from the union? In fact, why should any "small states" join the union in the first place if they are just going to be steamrolled by California and New York?

Because if they leave, they'll have the pleasure of getting steamrolled by other countries, including the United States. Fundamentally, you're making an argument against democracy, and in favor of giving people who live in small states greater influence than people who live in large states. A person who moves a few miles across the border from Colorado to Wyoming suddenly sees their vote count for 3 times as much in…

So would you say Canada (the entire country of which has a smaller population than California) regularly gets steamrolled by other countries, including USA?

And if not, then maybe all the small states need to do is band together into their own country, away from large state bullies

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#378

Post by adjkant »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #335
alphabettsy wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud is what’s being said. It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. It also strikes me as strange that they’re targeting only the cities that they are. Detroit for example when it was actually Oakland and Kent Counties that most altered the outcome in Michigan for Trump. Election officials have many ways to audit elections for example knowing exac…

> It’s on the accusing party to provide that evidence and they haven’t. But that's what I'm saying. What measures can we put into place to allow them to do that if it's actually true, or rule it out if it isn't? I'm asking for a good way that someone could find evidence that someone else e.g. mailed in a large number of ballots fraudulently, and you're telling me that there is no evidence of that happening. Well yeah…

And until you have that, you're going to assuming the unlikely, unproven, and unprecedented side from a president literally known for lying and questioning the results of the past election baselessly, finding no evidence in 4 years of time to search and the DOJ at their disposal? You think the conspiracy is so widespread and perfect that there's no trail at all, not even to maybe 20% of the alleged fraud? C'mon now.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#379

Post by tastyfreeze »

michaelmrose wrote: post #279
tastyfreeze wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been thinking that maybe states should get an equal number of electoral votes. We would get the protection of the electoral college and every state would have an equal say.

This is a terrible terrible idea. To understand how large the 10 least populous states have a population put together of about 9 million people. The 10 most populous states have about 179 million. What you are suggesting is that we weigh small state voter as equal to 20 large state voter. That isn't an "equal say" its tyranny. To put it in perspective you are suggesting that say Wyoming and Vermont whose population a…

A few large cities ruling the country is tyranny to those that live outside the cities. Only by granting equal state votes can we avoid a small portion of the country having an overwhelming amount of say in electing an executive.

States are members of the union. You are a member of your state not of the union. Not being a member directly of the union you should not have equal say. If you did have equal say there is no reason to have states. If we dont have states it is time to draft a new constitution cause the old one doesnt apply.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#380

Post by mistermann »

tempestn wrote: post #222
mistermann wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In practice, interested parties observe the process. On paper, interested parties are supposed to observe the process. What actually happens in physical reality does not always match the guidelines laid out on paper. > It's relatively difficult to pull off hoodwink when you've got adversarial observers standing there. I read assurances about what happens in physical reality on a regular basis. Often, these assuranc…

It's an even more extraordinary claim that widespread fraud did occur—a claim Trump was making in advance, before the votes were even cast, and continued to make, as expected. What I'm seeing from most media outlets are not claims that it didn't or couldn't occur, but simply that Trump is making the accusation without any evidence. Add to that the fact that he's been claiming fraud before the election even started, a…

I do not disagree. But at the end of the day, there is:

- that which occured in reality

- our measurements (best possible effort, or not, often with unknown(!) accuracy) of that which occured in reality

- what the media (and individual persons) say has occurred in reality (sometimes based on measurements (accurately, or not), sometimes completely made up)

These are almost always not equal, especially in complex situations like this. That the media and intelligent people cannot acknowledge this without resistance is rather alarming, to me. Mainstream thinking is increasingly starting to resemble that which is usually attributed only to conspiracy theorists.

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