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Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

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Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#371

Post by nickthemagicman »

DanBC wrote: post #116
dx87 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's best for the nation. Having blanket lockdowns with no timeline for lifting them, while also wrecking the economy because people don't want their 80+ grandma to die of covid isn't necessarily good for the country, even if it makes people feel better in the short term.

Mean age of people in English ICUs is currently just under 60, and median is just over 60. 20% of patients are 60-69. 15% are 50-59. https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports There are more people aged 40-49 than 80+ in ICU.

From that exact report you just linked...

77.4 percent of people admitted to the ICU were above age 60.

Also you're wrong with your numbers. You skipped females. So in total around 30% of people admitted to the ICU are age 60-69.

There's not a whole lot of 80+ year old people considering the average lifespan is mid 70's, so you have to do the per capita math on that.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#372

Post by nickthemagicman »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #95
dx87 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's best for the nation. Having blanket lockdowns with no timeline for lifting them, while also wrecking the economy because people don't want their 80+ grandma to die of covid isn't necessarily good for the country, even if it makes people feel better in the short term.

You like playing with numbers do not you? Covid becomes a very significant risk for people older than just 60, we are not talking about 80+.

His point still applies with people 60 or older.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#373

Post by Barrin92 »

nopzor wrote: post #344
Barrin92 wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in many other places like China outside Wuhan and in India, the inferred death rate is close to 0.0% it's very plausible that it's Singapore in particular is probably a high fidelity case. It has one of the highest testing rates on the globe, likely clean data and they've registered 28 deaths on >50k cases.

singapore has a special factor that you didnt mention. the very large majority of their cases were in foreign worker dorms. almost none of these workers are over 40, and are generally in good health. so the demographics are very different.

>so the demographics are very different.

yeah sure but that's the point. the demographics in much of the world are more favourable. The median age in Nigeria is 18 years, on the African continent 20. Much of Asia is relatively young as well. It's the Western places who are the outlier.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#374

Post by joe_the_user »

onecommentman wrote: post #304
rndgermandude wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This isn't good news, really, not for middle-aged-adults anyway. Or for anybody who knows middle aged and older people, especially if you spend time with them. I am honestly more concerned about killing my parents than dying myself of covid-19. This is why I skipped my mom's birthday for example, because I had pretty mild cold-like symptoms... or maybe mild covid-19.

BTW, for those substantially younger than dirt. You may be wondering why your elder elders aren’t particularly frightened by this, but folks 40 to 60 are more sensitized. After a certain age momento mori , a reminder that you will die, start coming at you fast and furious. This is just one more. They probably care more about seeing you than this next scheduled flight to Heaven. What unique about the shutdowns and soc…

That older people aren't frightened by this seems like a gross generalization. Plenty of the people disturbed by the rather poor and haphazard against Covid are older people who feel personally threatened.

Everyone experiences aging but in this highly individualized culture, how one interprets the experience is also individualized - varying from welcoming to acceptance to various fitness/health measures aimed to stave it off - plus there's denial and anger.

Someone looking forward to enjoying old age might not want life to end in middle age, etc...

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#375

Post by moralsupply »

bleepblorp wrote: post #370
moralsupply wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you mean that all libertarians are "very much fringe" and "Kock-like entities"? Also, Hayek was not a collectivist. Maybe you should read The Road to Serfdom again, as he refers to "collective responsibility" in the localist sense of "collective", not in the sense of a government.

Libertarianism is very much a fringe ideology propped up by billionaires who find it useful to promote an ideology that justifies their refusal to give back to the society that made them rich.

I wonder if you're a troll or if you really believe in what you wrote

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#376

Post by beagle3 »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #358
nradov wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As ghoulish as it may seem, I suspect another reason behind the declining fatality rate is that the earlier waves already killed some of the most vulnerable people.

Nah, it's a statistical artefact caused by testing policies. In March, you needed multiple symptoms to get a test, which meant that conditional on having a test, your illness was much more serious. Because this isn't an issue right now, it looks like the mortality rates have dropped when it's more likely that we are capturing a larger proportion of mild cases.

Obviously depends on where you look for this kind of reasoning, but I don’t think it is compatible with data in general.

Sweden’s death graph totally looks like “inventory of likely-to-die people exhausted”, regardless of testing (they have not changed recommendations or actions).

Israel had no first wave in April (it had a blip, which turns out was essentially limited to ultra orthodox religious which are about 15% of the population).

In September, the official 2nd wave but really 1st wave struck the entire population - and testing capacity was already high (about 0.7% of the population tested daily). And the stats looked way too similar to other countries’ first wave.

The US is a weakly connected network of hundreds of different repositories, which makes it really hard to observe similar processes - they are not visible on aggregate.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#377

Post by mrb »

dimitrios1 wrote: post #291
mrb wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only data I've seen (Peru) suggests that lockdowns significantly 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 homicides, suicides, traffic accidents, and other accidental deaths. I wonder if the same effect exists in other countries: https://mobile.twitter.com/zorinaq/status/131484402784650035...

I didn't mention homicides. Traffic accidents being down makes complete sense -- nobody is going anywhere. The CDC says there is an increase in suicide ideation https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm The PAHO says the pandemic exacerbates suicide risk factors https://www.paho.org/en/news/10-9-2020-covid-19-pandemic-exa... There are some other studies that I don't necessarily know what to make of that alr…

I copy pasted the text. Anyway, suicides are decreasing in Peru. That's the important point.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#378

Post by nickthemagicman »

kgwgk wrote: post #184
nickthemagicman wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Big time. This is a different disease based on different age brackets. Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. National health policy should not be based on personal outcomes.

> Under 48 there basically similar chance of dying as the flu. Numbers? Or maybe "basically similar" means "an order of magnitude larger".

An order of magnitude times a minuscule number is still a minuscule number. It would take orders of magnitudes of orders of magnitudes to make it un-acceptable levels of risk.

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#379

Post by anoncake »

EliRivers wrote: post #366
anoncake wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My elbow hasn't complained so far.

You just dump snot and mucus into your own elbow? What, like, onto the skin or does it just soak into the clothes you're wearing? For someone throwing around the word "disgusting" you're not exactly an exemplar.

You're joking, right?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/health/how-to-sneeze.html

Re: Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

#380

Post by dpc_pw »

cblum wrote: post #339
dpc_pw wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When exactly did our societies became so cuddly, childish, weak and pathetic to even ask these questions? How would this society fight any large scale war? Or make any large scale sacrifice like people fixing up consequences of Chernobyl disaster did? People used to rather die for honor, than live in shame. Had duels, took risky lifestyles, discovering new things and so on. Fought and died for their ideas. And now wh…

> Or make any large scale sacrifice Sacrifice is exactly what people aren't doing and why we're living through this disaster. The sacrifice we should be looking at is not the risk of catching COVID-19. It's that of following a set of rules that drastically minimize the spread of the disease. Simple rules, by the way. If everyone had the kind of thinking some (most?) Asian societies have (collective first, individual…

Yeah, I'm sure you are making such a sacrifice, working from home, having to eat doordash delivered food instead of a proper restuarant one. So virtuous. Here, have this medal.
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