Live data from Hacker News

Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

371–380 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#371

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

I love the term 101ism. going to incorporate that into my daily life now

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#372
> "Even a .5% wealth tax would start to keep founders away from a state or country that imposed it."

This sounds absolutely absurd. The last twenty years of entrepreneurs not fleeing the "tax" of Bay Area salaries seems like proof that they are a lot more interested in maximizing the chance of their start-up's success than maximizing the equity they keep if it does succeed.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#373
We have a similar system in Islam: the Zakat. It's a 2.5% wealth tax that is only paid after a reaching a certain threshold (around 15k). The zakat is mainly distributed to the less fortunate. The idea is that in the long run (over generations) the wealth is redistributed from the rich to the poor, keeping the society more just, and lessening social unrest.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#374
post #124
post #78

I'm not necessarily in favor of a wealth tax, but this essay is deeply flawed for the many reasons identified in other comments. What struck me is that I showed it to my partner who has no formal finance training and she quickly identified the major flaw that seems to have escaped Paul Graham: a wealth tax is a percentage of the dollar value of wealth, not a percentage of the number of shares of stock you own. The do…

> a wealth tax is a percentage of the dollar value of wealth, not a percentage of the number of shares of stock you own. If I expropriate 5% of your wealth, and ~100% of your wealth is in shares of stock, what percent of your shares have I taken?

If the stock is public, none. Take a loan, and let the equity grow

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#375
To me the sad thing about the wealth tax is that it distracts attention from the value-added tax, land-value tax and carbon tax, which, while not as progressive as the wealth tax, are much better as potential revenue sources and can easily be paired with better welfare programs (e.g. universal tax dividend née "basic income") to be similarly redistributionary in practice. The wealth tax satisfies a combative urge in our politics to stick it to the rich, but if there's one thing consistent about wealth taxes, it's that the actual receipts are not so high. France's much-ballyhooed wealth tax brought in a measly ~5B euros (about 7B USD) per annum:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_tax_on_wealth#Reven...

France's annual government revenue is easily above 100B euro, so the wealth tax -- which, as 'thomasdullien appears to have argued, was too high -- brought in around 2% of government revenue.

Maybe the antisocial effects of billionaires nonetheless justify a wealth tax -- maybe their ability to buy all of the best land and city governments justifies a tax that serves mostly to prevent their untoward influence on society -- but when considered as a way for the government to make money, I have yet to find an example of a wealth tax that works.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#376
post #182

This is pg's privilege to be able to write such a shallow article and get this much attention. There has been so many studies on this topic. There are places with Wealth Tax. France experimented with it and kind of failed. Switzerland has Wealth Tax. None of that was mentioned. Just a 4th grader math and a basic HTML table. God damn it I wish I was VC. Anything I say would be gold. This is pure @VCBrags material

> I actually worry a lot that as I get "popular" I'll be able to get away with saying stupider stuff than I would have dared say before. This sort of thing happens to a lot of people, and I would really like to avoid it

Paul Graham, as quoted in Maciej Cegłowski's blog post "Dabblers and blowhards"

- https://idlewords.com/2005/04/dabblers_and_blowhards.htm

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#377

It's important to note that leaving the United States to avoid future taxation is not an option for even upper middle class without serious penalty. The US is the only country in the world that taxes their citizens who are residing in other countries. Even if you move to another county, you still pay US taxes every year. If you'd like to renounce your citizenship to avoid that, the US has that covered. There is also…

Luckily, a wealth tax isn't constitutional so the socialist can stomp their feet as much as they like they are going to need to gain a lot more power than currently feasible to make it a reality.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#378
The Chamley-Judd finding of a 0% optimal capital tax is a very sticky result in optimal taxation theory. One way to think about is you want your tax system to walk as softly as possible while getting from point A to point B. Don’t distort intertemporal decisions if you don’t have to. Don’t tax elastic things when you could tax inelastic things - impose taxes on things where the optimal allocations don’t change much with the new disincentive. A wealth tax takes this result and compounds it. I should really consume my wealth instead of saving it. So you’re rewarding the spendthrift and hurting the saver (the investor). Investment and growth (and overall welfare) suffer. The caveat to all this is that a wealth tax that’s a one-time unexpected confiscation of wealth shouldn’t distort incentives, which is kind of approximated by the estate tax (poorly approximated since its still expected). But the wealth tax is really not about optimal tax theory. It’s about saying the quiet part out loud - taking from the wealthy because there’s a belief that it improves democracy. This belief is unfounded but has high political ROI.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#379

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

Wealth taxes are one solution. But in my opinion the only way to get extremely wealthy is to own a company that goes public. Personally I'm starting to think that when a company goes public there should be limits on what percentage of that company an individual can hold. Bezos being able to control 11.1% of Amazon given it's size seems a little ridiculous. The entire point of the stock market or "going public" was to…

There are plenty of companies that are private that have large ownership shares. The point of going public is to raise capital buy relinquishing some ownership. Owners don't want to give their shares unless they have to. If there were mandates to sell out of a company that you started and at a stage before you realized the gains on the capital you raised, it would incentivize companies to stay private and find their funding through private channels.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#380
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the Silicon Valley crowd is strangely avoidant of examining evidence or explaining their opposition with real-world data. It's all 101ism and polemics." It's not strange at all. It's self-interest.

Wealth tax is majoritism and nothing else. And we all know how that ends.

In order for your snarky statement to be correct, the wealthy would have to be a 'social minority'. Sure, they're a statistical minority, but they're not in danger of being oppressed because they own a greater share of social power in any given country than the majority of people. I can't believe you've gone around thinking that 'minority' just meant numbers and nothing else.
Post reply on HN