371–380 of 499 posts
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At which point rates are generally raised to cool things down.
Which should have happened along time ago in the current economy but haven’t, you can’t cut rates in bad times if you don’t raise them enough in good.
Though inflation had remained low, so it's not clear that it was necessary to raise rates.
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Keynes famously said you could hire people to dig ditches and it would stimulate the economy. However, if we were to take aggressive action on Climate Change, there’s a lot of potential jobs there. A massive potential stimulus. Also, you know, public funding of basic research which could explore, I don’t know, pandemic response, new therapeutics, etc. Like you said, ideological barriers are what’s keeping us stuck. B…
Who do you hire when you're at full employment? (The answer is you have to increase immigration, and hire those people)
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> inflation has arguably been far too low for far too long anyway... Do you not need a roof over your head, health insurance, a car, college education, etc? Inflation has been rampant, it's just not apparent in manufactured goods because the actual cost of production dropped rapidly with offshoring and technological progress. Without significant inflation, we would have seen a steady march down of consumer prices, as…
lewis turning point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_turning_point The inflation has been offshored. China's rural population has been lifted out of poverty. What happens to the world economy when china runs out of cheap labor?
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I was bearish yesterday, but looking at the raw data seems more reasonable ( spent a lot of time reading and analyzing). The statistic influencers currently are China, South Korea and Iran. Then it seems to help that people are more aware and numbers seem to be dropping. I'm short-term bearish, although it could change with an extreme outlier within the EU. It also helps that I can see what a big corporation ( where…
I don't know, Italy is doing pretty poorly with 79 dead on 160 recovered (2502 total cases). Only the numbers in China really seem to be dropping, and I wonder how that will hold up when people get back to work. This is not going to be the end of the world as we know it but I think it will take quite some more time before it's behind us.
This isn't happening in the rest of the world. ( Except some dictatorships)
Some minor outliers like you mentioned, eg. Italy. But these are getting handled. It will not spread anymore like it did in China.
It's possible that some parts will need extra handling, but sharing information is the key for handling this.
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Keynes famously said you could hire people to dig ditches and it would stimulate the economy. However, if we were to take aggressive action on Climate Change, there’s a lot of potential jobs there. A massive potential stimulus. Also, you know, public funding of basic research which could explore, I don’t know, pandemic response, new therapeutics, etc. Like you said, ideological barriers are what’s keeping us stuck. B…
Keynes's ideas also fail all over the globe. Saving and investing is what grows an economy.
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The cruse ship had 135 infected on February 10th, jumping to 634 on February 20th. So, most of those 700 are recent infections. The actual long term death total for the cruse ship is unknown, but should include people who died in their home country after returning. The good news is assuming you trust China’s numbers new infections are down massively from a February 2nd peak. Deaths in China are also down significantl…
I feel like the slowing infection rate in China (if it's actually true) is both very encouraging in the sense that it could show the virus actually is possible to contain, and also pretty scary in that so far the only measures that seem to be working at all are extremely widespread and draconian quarantines.
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I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…
A short term boost does not do much for the overdue market correction, though, other than delay it a bit longer.
But this is still a good point: if the market really is overheated then short-term monetary policy won't change that, and we can expect a lasting hit regardless of how disease issues play out. And it's not necessarily going to be obvious what's market movement and what's disease-related; I wouldn't be surprised if some over-hyped companies seize this as a chance to lower guidance faster than they normally could without spooking investors.
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No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are e…
What do people get out of fear mongering? It seriously baffles me how many smart, technical people just lose their shit with this stuff.
People need the truth, and they need time to be able to react to it before we're already in the midst of a bad situation.
A Harvard scientist predicted that 40-70% of the world could get this, and the death rate could be 1%. That rate is much higher among the elderly and the unwell.
A lot of people are going to die amidst the backdrop of a completely overloaded and mostly unprepared healthcare system. We need to acknowledge that.
I do not believe anything I've written is exaggerated or written from a place of fear.
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The unstated conclusion of your response seems to be that the absence of basic social service rights has no impact on rate of demographic change in developed countries; however, your comment appears to be focused on current measurements, and not rate of change. Keep in mind that the average American's economic position has been degrading for decades now, while the same cannot be said (to the same extent) for the citi…
Data shows [1] educated, empowered women with access to contraceptives have less children overall, and defer having children until later in life, full stop. I also argue it is a net positive, regardless of the underlying mechanism(s), that the fertility rate is declining across the world considering the unsustainable consumption rate per capita of the first world. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#empower…
China started with single digit cases, which then spread countrywide with tens of thousands of cases and many deaths. They quarantined cities, built 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days. And now after about 2 months they are seeing a slowdown. Why would this exact scenario regarding growth in the number of cases not play out in the US? The only difference is smaller population, but cities are dense here too. However, unlike…
I think the thing that no one is looking at here is that nursing homes and elderly care centers are going to be hot beds for the the virus. From my understanding China and most of these Asian countries is that don't have nursing homes so the house can be isolated. Here in the US we concentrate the elderly in these nursing homes and hope for the best. Most CNAs don't have enough vacation or sick time to miss work so t…