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Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

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Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#371

I live in Vancouver. Well, Burnaby. Like many Vancouverites on HN I am studying for a comp sci degree, and want to work as a developer. I accept that I have to make sacrifices to keep living in Vancouver, such as: -Living in a suburb (like Burnaby) -Getting roommates/a shared room -Living on a bus route instead of being a 5 minute walk from Skytrain With those sacrifices, I can find rents for $750-1000/month. $750 is…

As an established middle-aged software developer with a family living in Burnaby who cannot move now because of custody issues, I'm going to give you the same advice I give to all of the engineering co-ops I work with. You should move out of the Vancouver area as soon as you get your degree.

I don't think that you're ever going to have a problem finding 1 bedroom accommodations in Vancouver because that's what developers predominantly build. Eventually you'll probably want to get married and have kids, and then you'll realize that the GVRD has nothing for you.

The detached home market now largely belongs to rich Chinese immigrants who made their millions outside the country; you'll never be able to compete with these folks working in the Canadian economy and paying Canadian taxes. That will largely rule out Vancouver, Burnaby, and by the time you graduate, New West, Coquitlam, Poco, and Port Moody. This isn't even a matter of stretching anymore - this market is completely isolated from CHMC policy now because the prices are beyond what Canadian home buyers could ever leverage.

Developers have little incentive to build 3 bedroom family-friendly condos, so you'll have a hard time finding those, too. I wanted to buy one recently and it was going to cost about $700000. My current 2 bedroom would sell for about $400k, but I don't think that I want to stretch that far on a single income, even though it would mean I could get my kids their own rooms.

And really, is Vancouver so great? The mountains are nice, and the downtown is nice if you're young. But it's a trap for the young - through well-intentioned tolerance and bad public policy we've created a city that is hostile to young families. Live anywhere else in North America and you'll enjoy a more favourable cost of living and/or a better lifestyle.

I'd leave in a minute if I could.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#372
post #226
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of thing is true broadly. It's a bit more complicated in California because the South Bay is also very popular and very expensive, but the trendy areas of many downtowns have, over a relatively short period, become very popular with, among others, a certain young & educated demographic that really has turned them into luxury goods. This has arguably long been the case in some places like Manhattan. Going ba…

The Bay Area has been really bad about building, but some of the huge explosions in housing, for example the big towers going up in Redwood City, might finally help alleviate a bit of pressure.

Of course, that won't help the folks who don't want to own a car and do want to live in SF and be part of the urban scene but there are probably a lot more opportunities for adding housing south of SF--where most of the tech employment is anyway.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#373

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

A Canadian who invests in single-family homes recently told me that the U.S. state of Indiana charges double real-estate taxes if the home is not owner-occupied. As a Californian who owns rental property in Arizona, I am all in favor of this, provided that means my primary residence would be taxed less. Real-estate taxes on your primary residence is the equivalent of paying rent. It has become so high in some states…

Indiana also put a 2% cap on property tax into the constitution. Indy has some really nice Gilded Age mansions under $2 mil.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#374
post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most countries dont have such high property taxes that the USA does. In London I paid $2500 a year in council tax and thought that was a lot of money, even though that was about 0.25%. Meanwhile NYC suburbs I'm now paying that every two months.

Depends on the state. My aunt and uncle used to live in Bronxville, a suburb of NYC (it's part of Eastchester, which is in turn part of Westchester... NY municipal areas are confusing). They moved out in 2003, in large part because they were paying $25k/year in property taxes and they were both retired empty-nesters. When they told this to me and my mom, we both thought it was insane. I was born in Texas, and my mom…

Meanwhile, people like me would love to be able to live in Bronxville or Scarsdale for the school systems.

It makes no sense to live there when you have no school age children since you can move a few blocks away in one of the surrounding towns and still have the quality of life.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#375
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Senior engineers at Microsoft/Amazon/Google earn ~200-400K USD. (All-in) If you can 'live well' in the more expensive Vancouver at a 110K CAD salary, you could easily save an extra 100-200K USD by moving to Seattle.

Those companies are very much outliers. Does those 3 all have development operations in Seattle? Your figures don't seem to stack up RE Google: https://www.glassdoor.ca/Salary/Google-Seattle-Salaries-EI_I...

Yes, Amazon and Microsoft HQ are both in the Seattle area. Google has 2 locations here in Fremont and Kirkland. $200K+ for senior engineers sounds about right from people I've known who went to those companies.

Housing is getting expensive, but you can still buy a small 3br for about $400K in my neighborhood just south of Bellevue, so saving $100K does sound plausible.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#376

I live in Vancouver. Well, Burnaby. Like many Vancouverites on HN I am studying for a comp sci degree, and want to work as a developer. I accept that I have to make sacrifices to keep living in Vancouver, such as: -Living in a suburb (like Burnaby) -Getting roommates/a shared room -Living on a bus route instead of being a 5 minute walk from Skytrain With those sacrifices, I can find rents for $750-1000/month. $750 is…

I live as a developer in Seattle. Right now I live 45 min from downtown on a bus route with a roommate and I pay more rent for half an apartment than you do for your full one.

I'm a developer in Seattle that moved here from Vancouver. While rent isn't much cheaper here, the cost of living is lower and my net income is 50% higher now than it was in Vancouver, not taking the exchange rate into account at all.

After 3 years here I've now purchased a townhouse in Cap Hill. I could have never afforded the house I just purchased in a comparable Vancouver neighborhood.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#377

One of the main reasons of the housing crisis in the Bay Area is Prop 13 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(197... ) Prop 13 basically keeps the property taxes constant (or 1% increase) as the value of your house increases (doubles or triples). Your tax gets re-calculated only if you sell your house and the new owner starts paying potentially multiples of what the previous owner has been payin…

It's even worse in Australia, which most properties do not have a yearly property tax. So you pay a 'stamp duty' when you purchase the property, based on a % of the sale price.

This means you have people living in Sydney with multi-million dollar properties - which are just modest houses in now-desirable suburbs - who haven't paid any property tax since the 60's, and who can't move anywhere because they'd be up for so much stamp duty in one hit (easily 50-100k).

Furthermore, the state government has unpredictable revenue streams based on the ups and downs of the property market (you can have high prices but low volume) and the labor market is more calcified because people are unlikely to sell and move to access a new job.

The result is tightly held real estate, variable state government revenue and ever-higher prices. Adding fuel to the mess is a universal belief by local governments that housing development is evil and must be curtailed, so they concentrate on high density and infill development, which drives the prices of stand alone property ever higher.

Unsurprisingly, Australia just about outpaces Canada for the most severely unaffordable housing market.

And yet if you ask the average person in the street, they will blame 'interest rates' or 'Chinese buyers', and not once look at the ridiculous blockage on supply.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a company that pays fresh-grad $70k-$75k base salary with 10-15% bonus almost guaranteed base on company performance (there's a calculation behind it but the bonus amount is part of your package). Microsoft, Amazon, starting salary was 85-90k to 100k+ 2-3 years ago for 2 years - 5/7 years of experience. Salesforce Intermediate/borderline Senior SDET (SDET typically make less than SDE) starts from 100k base wit…

That's in CAD, correct? The Canadian dollar isn't doing too well, and is expected to drop to around $.50 USD by year end.

But we're talking about local issue so currency matters less for this topic.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also in the Seattle metro area; rent here is just massively out of balance. There is a total lack of regional urban planning and competition in the form of sufficiently available housing to keep prices low. All of that development went to the improperly supported suburban exodus movement of the 80s and 90s.

I hear that even in the more conservative suburbs, support for rail is increasing, just because the traffic in Seattle is so bad. Is this true? I think Washington state's regressive tax pyramid and dependence on plebecites will still stymie progress, though; in Canada, provincial and federal governments have much more centralized power to levy taxes and spend.

I think that is a more nuanced neighborhood by neighborhood issue. NIMBY is always a thing, and no one wants to live right next to any sort of transit.

There are various reasons for this, part of those reasons is that, disproportionately, the poor tend to be relegated to mass transit. Part of that is that transit doesn't make sense if you get on/off work outside of peek hours; most of the Seattle metro system is biased around serving /Seattle/. Transit systems in the counties to the north and south serve even less, have much tighter budgets, and therefore also have much less service. This is one of those self-re-enforcing loops.

With the HOV Toll Lane revealing just how horrid traffic on I-405 is (again absolute lack of urban planning), I think that you'd find many would agree about doing /something/, /anything/, except for taxing them in any way. Little do they realize that you pay 'taxes' in other ways, like having daily commutes of hell and a poor environment for their children to enter the workforce within. I know that my own career development is still severely hampered by having grown up in a suburb, without a car, and thus also with less access to the scarce jobs in the area that many (but not all) of my peers took up. I suspect that there probably weren't enough 'after school' jobs to go around though, so those who did get experience early got a head start on learning how to handle interacting with employers.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There actually is data. Ian Young, who writes the Hongkouver blog for the South China Morning Post, said this in a recent interview with Vancouver Magazine: > We’ve got peer-reviewed academic data from David Ley at UBC, who found what he called ‘an unusually decisive link’ between immigration and property prices in Vancouver, and this is going back over 25 years. We had Markus Moos and Andrejs Skaburskis who did anot…

Those studies are seriously flawed imo as their methodology is to filter on non-anglicized Chinese names and use that as a proxy for foreign money. That would describe a lot of people that aren't recent immigrants, like me. If anything, those studies show that ethinic-Chinese people are more predisposed to buying a house than renting, even when renting is much cheaper.

seriously flawed is an overstatement; there have been two studies done so far and while the researchers acknowledge the limitations of the method, in aggregate it is considered mostly sound by their peers.

But I agree - we should have something a bit more conclusive than 'Chinese names'. But the whole point is that the current provincial government is actively hostile to requiring real estate agents to collect this information. So last names are all we have.

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