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Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

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Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#361
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite interesting that those events are happening at the same moment. I wonder whether they are related

I think there are multiple separate events here, timed to coincide in order to minimise disruption. It's hard to be sure whether they share overlapping causes, but I'd guess that there's at least an element of that.

Yes. In public relations you never want to trickle out bad/concerning the news, you want to "rip off the band-aid and preferably follow it up with some positive/distracting news like 3.5 Pro model release or price drops.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#362
post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ed Zitron has predicted 16 of the last 0 AI bubble bursts... But more seriously, this has to do with DeepMind falling way behind the frontier in intelligence and cost per task. There's basically no reason to use a Gemini model today.

Tbf, he only has to get it right once.

Being right at the wrong time is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#363
post #342
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Frontier models can probably not advance much further with the datasets we have currently available I’ve been reading this sentiment on HN since GPT4o, yet models got better and better

There’s a difference between things getting incrementally better and a step function. LLMs will obviously keep getting incrementally better, but in order to get the kind on jump that LLMs themselves were, the sentiment is that we need something more.

Fable is a clear step function for me

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#364
post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answer is far more benign. They getting a higher ROI renting their TPUs to Anthropic et al instead of performing training and serving their own models. Google cloud has insane backlog, and has rapidly expanded to satisfy it. While those DCs get built, they’re cannibalizing their own products for it. This makes sense because (1) they are investors in Anthropic, so they still win and (2) they can always catch up on…

I think the reason Google hasn't prioritized larger models that are more intelligent than everyone else's, even though they probably could, is because they have 4 billion active users already. For example, they send AI Overviews for a large portion of Google searches now. So I think they have to prioritize scaling for their models to a higher degree than other groups. Being within say 5% or so in most cases is probab…

This is probably true in a smaller way for OpenAI

When you have a lot of free users the business demands that you serve them with the best cheap model you can build

And time spent building that may provide dividends (eg OpenAI has very good RL and reasoning) but it might take resources away from the larger model training

(I have no inside knowledge, so please consider this to all be speculation)

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#365

No AGI on the horizon and that ROI horizon approaching fast is going to make Ed Zitron a superstar. If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager, is Zitron up for the Nobel on Economy for excellence in economic forecast?

> If Demis Hassabis got a Nobel prize for being a Project Manager His accomplishments are far beyond project manager. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demis_Hassabis

Nobel was awarded due to project management work. There are many thousands of scientists with work much much better than what Demis has done.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#366
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its a public benefit corp

Don’t worry they will just limit them to a 10x return but then later on just convert to for profit and fahgetabout the cap!

I don't think Anthropic (the only major PBC in this space) ever did this.

OpenAI did but they had a totally different structure and were never a PBC.

If these guys adopt a similar LTBT+PBC structure to Anthropic it should be more resilient.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But things need to change. Not all change is good, as proven by Zuckerberg's response after the lackluster Llama 4 release. The radical restructuring appears to have made things worse.

How? Muse Spark 1.1 is a huge step up from Llama 4 & competitive with xAI's Grok 4.5. In another 3 to 4 releases, MSL might very well be challenging Ant & OAI. Moonshot, despite their comparatively limited resources, has already demonstrated that the Big 2 aren't invincible.

As someone who has worn Meta Glasses for about a year, AI is not Meta's strength

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they did raise new funding as he predicted...Since July 2024, OpenAI has raised or secured roughly $170 billion in new capital. Numbers never see before. So yes its the one, and remarkably right so far.

Notice how he didn't say "I predict they will raise new funding", he predicted collapse, with the implicit retort that there's no way they will raise more funding than has ever been done before and invent a whole new AI. He was mocking the supposed things that would need to happen. He strongly assumed collapse. 2 years these charlatans have had their "imminent collapse" predictions repeatedly wrong, meanwhile all val…

Oh, come on. He's not perfect, but compared to CEOs and researchers predicting AGI and complete economic upheaval every 3 months, he's looking very good. He's no more a charlatan than Altman is.

His predictions (while often wrong) are at least somewhat justified and backed up by genuine scoops and original research. Altman goes on podcasts and talks about building Dyson spheres for energy.

Re: Changes at Google DeepMind: Demis Hassabis from CEO to Chair, Jeff Dean departs

#370

> Google DeepMind: We are building strong momentum: Flash is in high demand, our Cyber model is live, and Gemma models have surpassed 900M+ downloads Considering these are the best stats they could find, gemini usage+general situation must be really, really bleak. High demand means nothing. A model being live is nothing to brag about. And gemma downloads also can be from auto CI pipelines etc. Nothing concrete

> And gemma downloads also can be from auto CI pipelines etc. Nothing concrete I have always found NPM download numbers truly suspect. Is no one caching? Are they estimating true number of downloads base on some estimate of cache hits?

Absolute download numbers are a pure vanity metric. Relative download numbers compared to other models tell you a little bit.
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