Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.
There is no house? Betting is against other players
You are betting against insiders, or rather giving money to insiders...
Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
361–370 of 559 posts
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#362These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.
Is there any difference in practice between placing a large bounty on some known person dying in the next week and just straight up ordering a hit on them for that amount?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#363[deleted]
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#364Earlier quoted context omitted.
Kalshi supposedly does not pay out if a death is involved https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 Not sure if Polymarket does the same. Also not sure if I really trust these people to be the arbiter of morality and adhere to their own rules when it doesn't benefit them.
Yeah, Kalshi can't pay. 17 CFR § 40.11 > A registered entity shall not list for trading or accept for clearing on or through the registered entity any of the following: > (1) An agreement, contract, transaction, or swap based upon an excluded commodity, as defined in Section 1a(19)(iv) of the Act, that *involves*, relates to, or references terrorism, *assassination*, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under…
> Polymarket doesn't seem to care too much
Polymarket is now two separate entities. Last year they were banned from the US and stopped taking on new US customers and made their site withdrawal only for anyone based in the US. You could bypass it with a VPN, but they did enough to at least look like they were complying.
They've now created a separate company that I believe is called Polymarket US which has it's own version of the site/app which they are using to re-enter the US market. This switched from invite only beta to open sign ups a few months ago.
Polymarket US is mainly just sports betting with a small number of crypto, commodities, and political election based markets, although they have said they plan to expand their market options. Their US based site almost certainly doesn't violate those rules. The version that is used outside the US is the one that has markets that violate that, but since they're not in the US, there's not much that can be done.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#365Earlier quoted context omitted.
This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.
We ended up with locked cockpits that the pilots won't open for anybody, plus passengers willing to fight back due to the tragedy of the terrorists. We ended up with the TSA because Karen needed security theatre and the government was all too happy to increase the funding and scope of DHS with the nod of the useful idiots.
And the locked cockpits have been indirectly responsible for a huge number of deaths. Best intentions and all that
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#366I don't usually see advertisements, but I was in a position recently to see a real-life television stream, and I was quite surprised to see them run an advertisement for Kalshi. I was pretty surprised that something like this would be advertised to normal people. I'd half expect the next ad to be for a hitman, or for beating your wife, or something. Seems crazy that this is tolerated whatsoever.
in Chicago near Wrigley Field (the Cubs stadium), the closest train stop (Addison) was basically wall to wall (some on the floor too) DraftKings advertisements until recently because they have a physical sports betting bar adjacent to Wrigley Field. After the latest round of elections they're closing that location so the ads came down.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#367Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even if you have an insurable interest, moral hazard may arise - acting recklessly or other abuse, while knowing you are insured/covered. Somewhat similar to friendly fraud in retail/ecommerce.
Insurance normally has fine print about those things. Life insurance doesn't pay out for suicide. Fire insurance doesn't pay out if you intentionally burn your house down (the fire department also will investigate because even though it is their job they don't like risking their life fighting fires) You can get insurance without the above provisions, but it will cost a lot more. Once in a while someone manages to col…
some life insurance policies pay out for suicide after an initial exclusion period. this is often six or twelve months. insurers can include it because suicide claims are relatively uncommon.
if there is evidence that someone took out the policy with the intention of creating a claim then the insurer may treat it as fraud and decline it.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
being pedantic here but > You aren't allowed to set up a life insurance policy on someone else's life, or a fire insurance policy on someone else's home This isn't really true. Lots of people take out life insurance on others as a hedge for many reasons, small business partner is one. Same fire insurance, we had a case where someone pledged a building as collateral and we took out separate fire insurance on the build…
To perhaps be a bit more pendantic. You're not allowed to take out life insurance on someone you don't know or have a relationship (business or otherwise) with. Life insurance on a business partner works. Life insurance on your spouse as well. Life insurance on the leader of a random country? Unlikely
you cant take out life insurance on your spouse without them signing the paperwork in most cases
you dont take out cover on your business partner, the company itself does
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
The CEO of Coinbase finished an earnings call by reading all the buzzwords you could bet on to be mention during the call. So a CEO can manipulate these things and who knows if it was just a marketing thing or if he shared his plans.
As long as he didn't place any bets, I think what he did is totally fine. If I find out my friends placed bets on whether I'll say X tomorrow, I'm not obligated to act as if I didn't know.
> As long as he didn't place any bets, I think what he did is totally fine.
you might need to take your imagination and critical thinking out for a spin if you can't see where this leads.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
> illegal globally I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting
Manifold tried real money markets for a while and quickly bailed out (I don't know any details on why).
From their FAQ on the front page.
> Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Their investors/lawyers probably did not want to back the risk using real currency adds.