361–370 of 408 posts
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Bad changes will be eliminated because better people are using the AI tools. They will reduce cost as well as slop.
Yes and we will all hold hands together singing and bring world peace from now on forever. Back in reality, I can see some obstacles without even trying
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> I think the case that their consumer subscriptions lose them money on net is pretty strong, even though their enterprise subscriptions (and API pricing) does make them a profit. To be clear I'm not arguing against this position, just questioning the confidence with which people claim that the current consumer subs are not a sustainable offering and a merely temporary.
Burning money is never sustainable. All you're actually saying is nobody can predict how long this particular bonfire will burn.
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> "offshore Indian devs" are no slouches. What evidence is there of the quality of Indian devs specifically? One signal I'd expect to see, for example, would be success in programming competitions. Here's the list of winners of the IOI competition [1] - India has won 3 times. Meanwhile, Turkey has won 4 times, Estonia has won 5 times, and Vietnam has won 22 times! Why should we suspect that there are more or better d…
Programming competitions are not the same as real-world engineering, plus these countries have way more people trying to use these competitions as a gateway to good jobs. Also, many good engineers emigrate to higher-income countries given the chance, and almost none will imigrate to low-income regions. The consequence is some sort of brain drain.
That's true but irrelevant. Nothing is "the same" as anything else. My question was, what evidence is there that offshore Indian devs are of high quality. One expected signal with be ...that they demonstrate their programming skill.
> these countries have way more people trying to use these competitions as a gateway to good jobs
That's ridiculous!! You're claiming that Turkey, with a population of under a million, has "more people trying to use these competitions" than India, with a population in the billions????
> many good engineers emigrate to higher-income countries
Okay, but the claim was, "offshore Indian devs are good" - that cohort (i.e. the ones INSIDE INDIA) excludes the cohort you're talking about (emigrate to higher-income contries).
So, unless your point is, "yes, I agree with you, there is no evidence that offshore (still in India) devs are of high quality, and the reason is that the good ones emigrated" I think this statement is irrelevant.
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That’s what I’m saying. Enterprise customers don’t use the subscription plan
Except that they do, we do. A lot of startups pile up enormous amount of accounts, companies don't need the Enterprise Anthropic solution, they can just subscribe to many accounts and have their own staff KYC for each (1 codex, 1 claude, 1 google and so-on).
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It runs right now on 512gb RAM Macs and PCs.
It runs like shit though in terms of tokens/second and still has a reduced context window. Vs a single claude prompt can easily get into 300k tokens without breaking a sweat. I want local AI to be a thing but the hardware isn’t here yet, because the only options are a Mac Studio or DGX machines strapped together. RAM prices needs to crash before local AI has a chance at actually competing.
As soon as I can buy hardware for less than 5k that runs an opus 4.6+/5.5 model locally I will do it instantly
When discussing LLM pricing, people are missing the plot. The subscription token price is 10x-40x cheaper than API pricing. Your 90$ Claude subscriptions give you close to $1000 to $4000 in equivalent API token pricing. The second issue is that the quality of the model “operator” makes a massive difference in the outcomes. Highly skilled senior devs who know how to prompt and have high agency will outperform team peo…
Its not like the non frontier are not improving. If someone can use deepseek to get 90% of the work done for $100 then pay another $100 to anthropic or openai to complete it I think they will rather do that than pay anthropic or openai for $1000.
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Its not like the non frontier are not improving. If someone can use deepseek to get 90% of the work done for $100 then pay another $100 to anthropic or openai to complete it I think they will rather do that than pay anthropic or openai for $1000.
Yes, for indie developers and small startups. Large corps won't want their code /email/etc data being looked at by the Chinese government.
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> The subscription token price is 10x-40x cheaper than API pricing This is a temporary phenomenon. Expect either drastic price increases or draconian throttling or both in the coming months. These companies are operating at huge loses and have hundreds of billions in liabilities and commitments. They need to turn on the money faucet sooner than later.
the alternative is that api prices change to be more in line with deepseek's
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How will it be profitable, really? You can dismiss Ed (and me vicariously) but what's your compelling evidence to counter their extremely uphill battle towards profitability? Either way it will be very interesting to see their S1 when they try and IPO. If it's anything like SpaceX's then I suspect my post will age better than yours.
I sincerely doubt Anthropic’s IPO will say that their AI business is only 2% of their future revenue, and they’re bundling in totally unrelated, unprofitable things they expect to account for 98%.
I haven't heard anyone claim their S1 will show that but that it will show how poorly their revenue figures look against their costs.
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But explain to me how these companies will recoup these costs outside of increasing inference pricing? Their business model is selling inference but the training and other costs have to be accounted for somehow. Unless I'm missing something obvious, inference costs must go up drastically if these companies are going to survive beyond the subsidy stage.
Sell more. The hope is that there is a huge addressable market that includes huge per-worker demand in almost all white collar work and lots of inference in people's private lives If that doesn't work, then yes, then prices will have to go up