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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#361

Post by lotsofpulp »

nradov wrote: post #306
lotsofpulp wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would Mark Cuban be in those group chats? He was never based in Silicon Valley, and the closest he got was selling a website to Yahoo in 1999. After that, he has mainly sold sports and his media personality for TV shows. Moreover, why would leaders of trillion dollar big tech companies subject to myriad securities laws be discussing intimate business details with random people that have no domain expertise or inf…

I don't know why. You'll have to ask the chat group administrators. I'm just telling you how things actually work. https://www.semafor.com/article/04/27/2025/the-group-chats-t...

I do not see the names of people in big tech business leadership positions, except maybe Andressen, if he counts. All the other ones look like media personalities or journalists or some two-bit SV founder.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#362

Post by ericmay »

vel0city wrote: post #327
ericmay wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an example from 2025 with a major US carrier - Verizon: https://tech.yahoo.com/phones/deals/articles/want-free-iphon... They run various schemes like this all the time, you can also trade in your existing phone a lot of times for pretty favorable terms. I've traded in phones that were a few years old and gotten $1000+ for them, especially when switching providers.

Verizon's "free" iPhone deal is you pay for the phone up front and then receive a bill credit. Here's the fine print from one of those deals: $729.99 purchase on device payment or at retail price required. New line req'd. Unlimited Welcome, Unlimited Plus or Unlimited Ultimate plans required. Less $730 promo credit applied to account over 36 mos; promo credit ends if eligibility requirements are no longer met; 0% APR…

I don’t know or care much about the specific details but the article was written in 2025. Carriers run deals and give away iPhones or close enough to free or cheap that quibbling about the details is irrelevant.

If you think the iPhone is a status symbol you’re just wrong.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#363

Post by vb-8448 »

ripvanwinkle wrote: post #316

This para caught my eye >Frontier cyber models may push states and defense firms toward the opposite logic: security by obscurity, with closed software, closed tooling, closed firmware, and closed chips. If a model cannot train on the code and architecture of a target stack, it will usually have less context and less speed. That does not make systems safe, but it does raise the value of proprietary stacks all the way…

In general: less data = less "intelligence".

And basically all the security bugs I've read about were find looking on the source code.

But it doesn't mean windows is more secure, just image a scenario where someone is stealing windows source code and sell it to rogue actor, it will make it even less secure because no one (expect windows) would have had the chance to search for bugs in the source code.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#364

Post by elictronic »

yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

China is playing the card they have. When they control the majority of the resource they use it strategically as well. Cutting off much of the rare Earth market was a recent example.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#365

Post by ericmay »

throwaway27448 wrote: post #337
ericmay wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What source are you using for your claim that capital is flowing out of the country? I'm curious to read more about it.

I don't think that's a particularly bold claim after thirty straight years of moving supply chains overseas. Capital is, inherently, the means of production. The world where we could compete is gone.

Capital is not the means of production. Capital is capital. If I have a few million dollars in my bank account I don’t all of a sudden have a factory. Remember from economics class you need capital, labor, and the means of production.

Capital inflows are different from manufacturing outflows. The US has historically imported capital which is part of why we have such a large trade imbalance. I’d encourage you to do some more digging here.

> The world where we could compete is gone.

Sigh no that’s just not true at all. We compete hard and fast all day everyday, economy is growing and will continue to do so, and no amount of leftist doomer, Chinese, Iranian, or Russian propaganda changes those facts.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#366

Post by overfeed »

wouldbecouldbe wrote: post #320
eskibars wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just left a job for a German B2B software company which sold primarily to large automotive, defense, and aerospace companies. Several of our customers specifically banned anything with the word "DeepSeek" -- hosted or self-hosted. There's still a lot of naivety on what the difference is between models and platforms, and its easier for a lot of these big companies to just make a blanket statement like "nothing DeepS…

You are sending all your prompts code and files there. So ofcourse its an issue

Where's "there" on a self-hosted setup?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#367

Post by irishcoffee »

nodja wrote: post #338
irishcoffee wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it very strange that the GP felt the need to correct a difference between leading and winning. If you're at the front of the pack in a race, you are both leading the pack and winning the race. If your team has more points than the other team, you are both leading the contest and winning the contest. It is a distinction without a difference. The elephant in the room, and where the analogy breaks down, is that a…

GP here, leading and winning are different things in the race context/metaphor. In foot/cycling races there's often a pack leader, that leader is often not the winner of the race, all they're doing is taking the brunt of the air resistance while everyone else slipstreams behind. For a casual observer it seems that the pack leader will win, but everyone knows that it's gonna be someone that paced themselves that's goi…

You’re moving the goalposts and tying to one specific sport. I didn’t say “winner” nor did anyone else. “Winning” is the operative word, and tying the whole analogy to cycling is as close to a strawman as one can get while having the ability to claim otherwise.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#368

Post by lotsofpulp »

brabel wrote: post #125
embedding-shape wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm not doing capitalism right, but isn't it supposed to be "The one who profits the most wins"? If you win by just spending, I think you need to adjust the parameters of your capitalistic market.

I don't get it either, but it seems to me a bit similar to how the US, if you look at market value of car companies, has utterly crushed Europe and Japan (with China surging ahead of those and maybe threatening the US soon), which to me sounds crazy (I still think of German cars as the top of the bunch). According to Google (AI summary, no idea if it's 100% right but from what I've seen elsewhere it seems right): Top…

>Does the financial markets still expect them to far out-earn Volkswagen and Toyota any time soon, we've been waiting for like a decade already??

These capital heavy industries operate on 30+ year timelines, a decade isn't sufficient time.

Revenues are not the end all, be all. Profit and profit margin, along with revenue trends provide a more complete picture. And the most significant factor is that the market does not expect Volkswagen or Toyota to do anything new, to do anything with the potential to earn more. They are what they are, and they will continue with their lower margin businesses until they fade away.

Investors are betting that Tesla, however, might have a few tricks up its sleeve, that will allow it to expand markets and profits.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#369

Post by philipkglass »

nradov wrote: post #143
SubiculumCode wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The non-release of Mythos tell you the future of that, so long as they can keep the weights from being exfiltrated. Once models become true national security threats, they won't be released in their full form. The hitch-a-ride approach becomes less capable of keeping up.

How would they prevent distillation? That would seem pretty tough to block for any LLM available for commercial use.

This post claims that Opus 4.7 has introduced some detrimental changes to stymie distillation:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Anthropic/comments/1snorbg/the_bigg...

I don't know enough about distillation to understand how much this hinders/slows the process, but it sounds at least superficially plausible.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#370

Post by scared_together »

chromacity wrote: post #300

I continue to be impressed by our collective willingness to engage with obvious AI slop, as long as it also talks about AI. Sincere question for any of the nearly 300 folks seem to be arguing about the article: why? The author couldn't be bothered to present their case, so they probably don't care about our opinion. They just want traffic and search ranking with the least amount of effort. The community is literally…

> Is it just that the subject line alone is a springboard for casual discussion?

I think this has been the case on many sites, for decades. Many people just want to read and write comments without engaging with the OP.

Have a look at this Reddit thread [0] about this Ars Technica article [1] - both are 15 years old.

I suppose in the 2010s this was an amusing detail of online discussion. In the 2020s it makes me feel a little uneasy - it suggests that the entire concept of people jumping from site to site, clicking links and understanding what they are writing about was flawed from the start. No wonder the internet became centralized and slopified.

And no, I didn’t read the OP, I found your comment to be more interesting to discuss. These days with AI articles flooding the internet it seems foolish to actually read articles before the comments.

Edit: although we have to contend with AI generated comments as well. I wonder how many of the comments on this page actually have original insights into the politico economics of AI.

[0] https://old.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/gz9k7/the_internet_is_...

[1] https://arstechnica.com/science/2011/04/guns-in-the-home-lot...

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