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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#361

Post by stickfigure »

Certhas wrote: post #325
stickfigure wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If gasoline is more expensive, customers will demand more efficient vehicles. We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. I'm old enough to remember when Japanese small cars practically took over the market in the 70s and 80s due to gas price shocks. It can happen again.

If gasoline is expensive because of carbon taxes, people will vote for a party that tells them that climate change is not a problem, and that, if they win, gasoline will be cheap again.

You can say the same about CAFE standards, or anything else government does? This is a silly argument.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#362

Post by cjblomqvist »

don_esteban wrote: post #263
nine_k wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US, or Saudi Arabia, or Venezuela, or Russia could very well be energy independent on fossil fuels alone, even though that won't be wise. Europe, or China, or India could not though.

China is making great strides in renewables and investing in nuclear (and in electrification of transport). It can be energy independent in not too distant future. India has geography for solar, and the human/industrial capability for nuclear. Southern Europe can go solar as well. Northern Europe has it tougher (except Norway, with its abundant hydro). Nuclear could work. Or long range DC cables from South Europe or…

Northern Europe, at least Scandinavia, is already at 90%+ non carbon electricity generation. (88-100%)

Central and Eastern Europe have it tougher.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#363

Post by sneak »

nradov wrote: post #340
Teever wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. But we are. I don't want to turn this into a political slap fight but it became apparent to me the extent in which people are swayed by advertising when I read an article that talked about how one party in the US was concerned that the other was going to win an important seat becase the other party had done a recent spending surge on ads in last few days befo…

Nah, it's not real. Your claim isn't supported by the data. Political advertising can help a bit at the margins but in the 2016 Presidential election the losing campaign spent about twice as much on advertising as the winner. Very few voters were swayed by last second radio ads. (I would support a Constitutional amendment to restrict campaign contributions and effectively overturn the Citizens United v. FEC decision.…

Which is it? If your first claim is true, why do we need to amend anything?

They seem like mutually exclusive claims, to me. Am I missing something?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#364

Post by sneak »

stickfigure wrote: post #361
Certhas wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If gasoline is expensive because of carbon taxes, people will vote for a party that tells them that climate change is not a problem, and that, if they win, gasoline will be cheap again.

You can say the same about CAFE standards, or anything else government does? This is a silly argument.

The reason so many people buy huge trucks in the USA is specifically because heavy machinery (above a threshold) is exempt from such standards.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#365

Post by elmomle »

sarjann wrote: post #241
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

Isn't the solution in game theory when there are multiple turns to just repeat the move the previous person made. So if the other side overpumped by x1 amount then you pump an extra x1 the next turn / year (maybe multiplied some reference production factor as they don't all have the same absolute limits).

Tit for tat (start by cooperating, and for each subsequent choice do what your opponent did last turn) is the optimal for repeated 2-party prisoners' dilemma.

The real world is much more complex. OPEC is a multi-party game, for starters. For another thing, there are cascades of social/political problems that get in the way of optimal strategy at the level of nations. I.e. that only works if politicians are more interested in solving problems than controlling narratives or maintaining power. Unfortunately, an ineffective leader can be sustained by controlling the narrative, while an effective leader can be destroyed by lack of control over the narrative. And one of the best ways to control a narrative (especially if you aren't a very good leader to begin with) is to create so much chaos that it distracts from your shortcomings, and blame the chaos on enemies.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#366

Post by sneak »

ndisn wrote: post #229
post-it wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is, respectfully, corporate propaganda. Consumers buy the vehicles that are available and advertised. It's in the best interest of manufacturers to convince/compel consumers to buy larger, more expensive vehicles with higher margins, and that's exactly what they're doing.

You can’t convince (almost all) consumers to spend money on something that they do not want.

Car insurance. Low flow showerheads. Fuel-inefficient vehicles. Electric dryers. Electric stoves. Appliances that don’t last. Lawn care.

Taxes. Social Security.

The list is gigantic. Your claim could not be more false.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#367

Post by sneak »

jagraff wrote: post #242
nradov wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit. There are many competing auto manufacturers. No one is compelled to buy larger, more expensive vehicles. There are smaller, cheap vehicles available to those who want them. If I want a little penalty box like a Hyundai Elantra or Nissan Sentra the local dealers have base models in stock and ready to sell today. Larger vehicles are more comfortable, safe, and practical (for anyone who doesn't need to worry a…

Large vehicles are safer for the occupants of the vehicle, however they do increase danger for pedestrians and drivers of other vehicles in a collision. There is a reasonable argument that reducing vehicle size would save lives overall

This is a myth. Larger vehicles are not safer for their occupants; they merely feel that way.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#368

Post by sneak »

tootie wrote: post #189
cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

Global pricing affects all fossil fuels and always will. Energy independence will remain a fantasy until we are fully on renewables. Which is entirely within reach and requires fighting zero wars.

The US/China trade war is intensely relevant to the large scale deployment of renewables in the US.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#369

Post by Teever »

nradov wrote: post #340
Teever wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We aren't mindless zombies buying whatever we see on TV. But we are. I don't want to turn this into a political slap fight but it became apparent to me the extent in which people are swayed by advertising when I read an article that talked about how one party in the US was concerned that the other was going to win an important seat becase the other party had done a recent spending surge on ads in last few days befo…

Nah, it's not real. Your claim isn't supported by the data. Political advertising can help a bit at the margins but in the 2016 Presidential election the losing campaign spent about twice as much on advertising as the winner. Very few voters were swayed by last second radio ads. (I would support a Constitutional amendment to restrict campaign contributions and effectively overturn the Citizens United v. FEC decision.…

Again, I don't want to get into a political slap fight here, I want to keep this on the subject of advertising.

It sounds to me like you're confusing the magnitude of advertising spending with effectiveness of advertising techniques.

Some people have found more effective ways to advertise to people, we know all this, it isn't uncharted conversation territory. We all know about micro-targetting based on personalized data, dominating certain niche mediums like AM radio to target people when they're driving and coordinated pushes with people in industry.

The point is that advertising works. It works disconcertingly well.

This is why people buy stupidly impractical automobiles that they don't need.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#370

Post by mafuy »

iso1631 wrote: post #350
brightball wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario. IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario. You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing…

In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel A plug in solar panel and microinverter at the local supermarket is about €1k/kW. 9kW of solar for €9k/£8k/$10.5k to power an average US car and an average US house. Avearge US car does 13,000 miles a year needs about 4,500kWh, so €4500 An average US home uses 11kWh a day, or 4,000 kWh a year, that would be another €4000 US electric price is an average…

> In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel

Typo, 1000kWh from 1kW of solar panel.

I got my 4x 455W panels for 70€ each from BayWa (random vendor in Germany), plus delivery. Microinverter ~200€. Aluminium etc for installation ~400€ or so. I installed them together with a friend. Total cost ~900€ or so. At 30ct/kWh in Germany, break even is in 3 years. Would be earlier if I had a better roof to put them on, mine has some shadow.

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