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France pulls last gold held in US

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Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#361
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we had the technology to maintain 0% inflation, we would do that. We can't, and rather than risk deflation we instead target low positive inflation. I don't think this is quite right. My understanding is that a low positive inflation would be targeted anyway, because it stimulates the velocity of money; i.e. there's a downside to hoarding, since you need to beat inflation to come out on top. So people will be wi…

The main advantage to keeping inflation as low as possible but positive is also that it makes interest rates cheaper. Individuals are incentivized to spend when there's inflation, but banks have a harder time writing loans because the interest rate on the loan is the product of inflation and the bank's desired ROI. Low interest rates are a good thing because they allow people to explore new ideas and new businesses -…

> Individuals are incentivized to spend when there's inflation

That's not what's happening currently. Inflation has driven up prices to the point where people can't afford to spend. They're forced to cut back on spending just to keep a roof over their head and food on the table. Inflation promises that things are cheaper now than they ever will be, but that just means that anything you can't afford you either have to go without or take an even bigger hit to your wallet after trying to save money at a rate faster than prices are increasing. That sort of thing leads to less spending.

Credit cards were the solution for many Americans for a very long time, but that was never sustainable and now the US has record amounts of household debt and homelessness.

Deflation makes things more affordable and so people buy more. Yes, they could horde all their wealth, but you can't eat money and it isn't much fun. When times are good why would anyone bother going without when they can easily get what they want today. Consumerism is strong enough to keep people buying things. Decreasing prices gives consumers confidence that they can make risky purchases and investments.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#362
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did read the article, thanks for asking. Sounds like you agree with me, France has the same amount of wealth in gold that they had last week.

I don't care about that. That's not what the article is about.

>> The article is about bringing gold back to France by selling US bars and buying new bars in Europe. The alternative would be melting the bars down and recasting them to the new standard.

> Sounds like you agree with me, France has the same amount of wealth in gold that they had last week.

What did I miss?

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So as trade increases, and the need for dollars increases, gold and the dollar increase in value together. That sounds benign until you realize that is: deflation. It incentivizes everyone to hold their dollars instead of spending them, and parasitically gain from gold's increasing utility use as currency by others. This further decreases dollars available on the market to use in trade, further increasing their value…

Can you make the same arguments for holding land and activity that requires land? Or holding any other valuable, limited commodity vs activity that requires that commodity, copper for example? Investors in those things haven't caused an economic death spiral. It's considered shrewd and good business to buy and hold things that are seeing increasing demand. > This further decreases dollars available on the market to u…

Holding land isn't as straightforward as you describe it. Every parcel of land is different. It takes a lot of knowledge of many kinds to be the one who makes money from real estate, instead of losing outright for overpaying, underselling, or simply being whittled down by taxes and other expense. And its lack of liquidity creates high situation risk, for anyone who doesn't have a large enough csh buffer to weather life's turns, unscathed by any immediate needs.

But yes, sophisticated investors do make money on under utilized land. Parasitically.

And it is an economy damper. Under utilized land is poor economic optimization by definition. Not to mention the undertow it creates, in terms of unproductive scarcity, for people who actually need to utilize land - whether that is for homes or businesses.

The solution, as economist Henry George pointed out, is to tax land, but not the property on it. Tax the exlcusionalry holding of a limited resource, don't tax productive value created by people.

Taxing land and not property isn't as simple as taxing both, but it isn't rocket science either. There are lots of standards and practices, because distinguishing between the two is important for many reasons.

The irony of taxing property, the stuff that makes land productive, is that it is a wealth tax that hurts rich and poor alike. A poor person, unemployed, who spends their time bereft of reliable income improving their own home will now be taxed on the value added - every year for the rest of their lives or until they sell or lose their home. That is a very perverse situation.

So yes, the taxation situation that subsidizes under utilized property, which is also parasitically rewarded by gains in value far exceeding the lower taxes they pay (for having no development to tax), is continually damaging the economy.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And you'd be wrong. It's not even difficult to understand why. Uncontrolled inflation is bad. Deflation is much, much worse. You do not want deflation. It rots your economy and nukes lend and spend. We trade a small amount of inflation to avoid the nuke that is deflation. This is, like, one of the few things economists -- even most of the crazy ones -- agree on.

That's an oversimplification. Demand-side deflation can be bad for the economy, but it's also because our modern economies are basically reliant on inflation to manage our insane debts. Typically, critique of inflationary principles is coupled with a broader critique of MMT and how our economies are run. Deflation is fine or even beneficial when it comes from increased productivity (supply-side). Heck, we have deflat…

> Deflation is bad for the elites and politicians, and good for consumers.

Hahahaha no. Other way around. I assume you meant "consumers" as a short hand for "normal people" and not its actual meaning of "people who need to buy things on a regular basis" because you do not want to be a consumer in a deflationary market. You're constantly having to piddle your wealth away because you're forced to exchange money for goods and services. Like food and shelter.

Deflation means no access to modern lending because there's no incentive to do anything with money except hold it. That's fine if you're already wealthy, because either you have it on hand, have assets for collateral, or can call in a favor. If you're not wealthy, you're just fucked.

Having easy access to debt is, overall, a phenomenal thing for the non-wealthy. Can you abuse it? Yup. Can it be predatory? Sure. Does it mean the average person gets access to capital without access to generational wealth or decades of saving? Absolutely. The middle class kind of doesn't exist without it. See also: The Ability to File For Bankruptcy is Good, Actually.

> And if you spend like 5 minutes pondering the justification for why that is, you'll see it's mostly BS.

I'm always a fan of examining things, but there's a prerequisite. You need enough education, critical thinking skills, and maturity to understand why you start at the null hypothesis: any "Secret Knowledge They Don't Want You To Know" theory is conspiracy bullshit.

And enough cynicism to know when people start talking about "elites and politicians" like they're one homogenous lump of evil agenda, it's usually a shibboleth for other, ah, less socially acceptable beliefs.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The price for gold and dollar would rise, until the worth of dollars is as high as the demand is? The name for that is deflation.

To explain why de/inflation is bad: The primary function of money is its trade value, to "lubricate" the real economy to let goods and services flow. When the value is unstable, people are inclined to not spend or not accept that currency, which contradicts the free flow of it and in severe cases harms the economy. Crypto'currencies' have the same problem. By nature, they are no currency but investment for which inst…

> Crypto'currencies' have the same problem.

Bitcoin has the same problem. There is no inherent reason you can't have a cryptocurrency where there is no maximum number of coins to ever be mined and instead the limit is that mining them requires a fixed amount of computation.

That would give you the characteristics you want from a medium of exchange, because there is a rate limit on how much can be created (doing so requires e.g. electricity). Then the value is relatively stable, if you accept it as payment on Monday it would still be worth around the same amount on Friday, but the long-term result is a slow reduction in value on multi-year timescales as compute gets cheaper, so you don't get the speculation that results in high volatility and it doesn't strongly compete with real economic activity for investment resources.

The argument you'll get from goldbugs and whatever is that nobody would want a currency which is inherently inflationary like that, but that's clearly contrary to evidence. Most government currencies are inflationary, even on purpose, and it doesn't matter as long as the rate of inflation isn't so high that people holding it transiently for use as a medium of exchange are losing a significant amount in that short period of time. Especially when the rate of inflation is predictable (the rate at which computers get faster is reasonably consistent) so that anyone entering into a long-term contract denominated in that currency can reasonably predict its future value on the delivery date. Or people could just use it as a medium of exchange and denominate their contracts in something else.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you make the same arguments for holding land and activity that requires land? Or holding any other valuable, limited commodity vs activity that requires that commodity, copper for example? Investors in those things haven't caused an economic death spiral. It's considered shrewd and good business to buy and hold things that are seeing increasing demand. > This further decreases dollars available on the market to u…

Holding land isn't as straightforward as you describe it. Every parcel of land is different. It takes a lot of knowledge of many kinds to be the one who makes money from real estate, instead of losing outright for overpaying, underselling, or simply being whittled down by taxes and other expense. And its lack of liquidity creates high situation risk, for anyone who doesn't have a large enough csh buffer to weather li…

I didn't describe anything as straightforward, the fact remains that there are limited goods/properties/commodities that are in demand, not just money. It's not up to me to show why it's exactly like money because that was the only property of money used to describe this detrimental problem, it's up to the person who says that is a problem with deflationary money. Money can also be taxed too, so that also is insufficient to make the case for why it is different than land. Or alternatively you could take a limited non-renewable commodity (say, copper) that is in demand but not taxed. Also you have still not addressed that increasing value of money naturally reduces the required amount of it necessary for making a particular trade. A fairly striking omission when claiming there are feedback spirals in such a system.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the price of gold continued to rise as they did this This would mean they sold low and bought high, right?

It’s because they’re using European mathematics. You wouldn’t understand if you’re American. In reality the article is attempting to account for a capital gain pnl accounting for taxes.

I'm not sure the central bank is paying capital gains taxes?

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#368
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This thread was someone saying you can't peg a currency to something else because "there isn't enough of it" which is nonsense. there’s no economic growth Printing money doesn't create economic growth, it just inflates assets and depresses nominal wages. money is worth more when you don’t spend them People say this stuff like it's gospel, but if someone understands currency dynamics in the first place they would have…

Economic growth comes from spending. Households must be incentivized to spend either through inflation or low interest rates. Buying stocks hoping that it would appreciate doesn’t work when there is no economic growth. So we are back to square one. And for hundreds of years we didn’t have the same kind of international trade, or the same financial markets. One must wonder whether a new kind of currency must accompany…

> Buying stocks hoping that it would appreciate doesn’t work when there is no economic growth

Why? If you and I earn $100 per year, every year, that means there is no economic growth. We spend half of it on food, clothes, and other necessities and buy stocks with the other half, stocks will go up in value.

An non-growing economy has aspects of a zero-sum game. Speculation can still occur, and can continue unbounded. Stocks, gold, bitcoin, have historically all been deflationary.

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#369
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we had the technology to maintain 0% inflation, we would do that. We can't, and rather than risk deflation we instead target low positive inflation. I don't think this is quite right. My understanding is that a low positive inflation would be targeted anyway, because it stimulates the velocity of money; i.e. there's a downside to hoarding, since you need to beat inflation to come out on top. So people will be wi…

The main advantage to keeping inflation as low as possible but positive is also that it makes interest rates cheaper. Individuals are incentivized to spend when there's inflation, but banks have a harder time writing loans because the interest rate on the loan is the product of inflation and the bank's desired ROI. Low interest rates are a good thing because they allow people to explore new ideas and new businesses -…

> the entire modern tech industry would not exist without ZIRP

The problem with zero interest rate is that it doesn't incentivize better ideas. Why would you work to increase productivity if capital has no cost?

The period 2016-2021 was one where interest rates were the lowest, sometimes even negative, and you saw companies hiring endlessly, and acquiring competitors with no intention of doing anything their their products.

It is very hard to compete on talent and good ideas in such an environment when your all competitors are burning through loaned and venture capital (which itself is also largely loaned at some point).

Re: France pulls last gold held in US

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold is actually really good at transferring and measuring value. Think about what a "good" measure of value would be have. It needs to last over time, not corrode or dissolve to the forces. It needs to be distributable, Divisible.. to be ubiquitous. Hard to create/refine, hard to find, so supply can't easily be inflated. It doesn't matter what the object that is being used for exchange of value or holding value, tha…

> that's why you can trade and barter random objects...imagine having an exchange currency that literally never inflated... that's GOOD. We have been hoodwinked into thinking that we need inflation to keep up with goods and services, literal stockholm syndrome Gahhh. Stop taking your economics advice from bitcoin bros and goldbug weirdos. They don't know how anything works and don't want to learn. It's like taking le…

> If your money goes up in value, you have a huge incentive to stockpile it and not buy pizza

A lot hinges on this being true, but being deflationary is not unique to gold. It is also true for a lot of other things, including stocks. Yet we think it is good that regular people spend their earnings on stock, and it is generally considered to be one of the things which made American economy uniquely strong. So much so that other countries seek to mimic it.

The argument should cut both ways: A strong stock market which is deflationary should lead to economic stagnation. Why buy a pizza today when you can buy S&P500 and buy two pizzas tomorrow?

Reality seems to disagree here. People buy what they need and want, today, and whether the rest is stored in fiat currency, stocks, or gold seems to matter very little for economic productivity.

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