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DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

jeffgeerling.com

361–370 of 592 posts

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#361

Well this brings back initiative to stop throwing RAM at the problem and start optimising the code. Would like to see what smart people can do when there are money saved from buying more RAM.

For some uses right now, this makes sense, but it has to be at scale. If you're working on something that will ship in two years and is used by end users, it might not be worth the effort since production will catch up.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.

My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…

My Galaxy Note 8 is still going as my main daily music player/backup phone.

My Galaxy Note 4 still works. Had to sideload updated web certificates.

My Galaxy S1 would still be going, but somebody got the charging port wet.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#363
post #280
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty trivial to do so on Arduino though. void setup() { pinMode(LED_BUILTIN, OUTPUT); } void loop() { digitalWrite(LED_BUILTIN, HIGH); delay(1000); digitalWrite(LED_BUILTIN, LOW); delay(1000); }

Well first you have to learn the Arduino programming language. And the stdlib.

They don't call it C++ because that sounds too difficult. But it's literally, not like a simplified subset that compiles into an IL using a formally proven tool, but as in literally compiled using GCC as, C++.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is my greatest concern. So many small players will be wiped out. Consolidation is assured. Always great for consumers to be under the thumb of increasingly large companies.

Will it be such a big deal though? Currently people are swapping out their phones for another model that's exactly the same but with a different number at the end of the name every 12 months. This could just mean that the unnecessary churn dies down a bit, and companies taking advantage of it have to find a new line of business.

This comment makes no sense to me. I exclusively use very low-end phones from Xiaomi. I buy a new one roughly every two years. Each new phone has a better screen, camera, CPU/GPU, charging, and sometimes more RAM/storage.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#365
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse. I believe helium, although important constitutes a small percent of the cost of semiconductors, so its effect on price will be less severe. It will be more noticeable in other uses of helium though - party balloons could get very expensive etc.

> although important constitutes a small percent of the cost of semiconductors, so its effect on price will be less severe You should think about this some more.

You should elaborate your snarky rebuttal more.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.

My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…

iPhones usually live pretty long life.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.

My Samsung Galaxy S3 died after 8 years. EMMC failure. Just started boot looping while I was asleep. Everything gone. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years. Some kind of thermal failure, I was able to recover my data by keeping the phone in the freezer while I copied. Known issue. My Samsung Galaxy S21? I figure I've got another year or two in it before it, too, dies. Having beautiful dead phones that hav…

    > My Samsung Galaxy S8 died at 7 years.
Yikes, that is a long time! How many times did you fix it (screen or battery)?

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#369
post #165

In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices: But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1…

Its going to be interesting, when big the big AI bubble directly attacks via pricing the government by preventing the sale of surveillance devices. So the bubble will pop- not because it can not sustain, but because its existence is adversarial to government demands for surveillance.

Re: DRAM pricing is killing the hobbyist SBC market

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am noticing something those devices have in common. My Galaxy Tab also has dead EMMC. My HTC One M8 still works and even holds a day of charge. Too bad Android doesn't support 32bit ARM anymore.

It can also depend on the hardware it's connected to. If the endless gigabytes of Samsung's value-add software are scribbling to eMMC nonstop then it's not surprising the flash is wearing out. A lot of this stuff is masked by the fact that most people swap out their phone for a new one that's exactly the same every 12 months so they never notice this, but if you hold onto a phone or similar device for longer the unne…

Google Android should get more praise for doing quality control by analyzing and killing apps and processes that attacked the hardware - at least back in the day.

The great filter for incompetence by the big G was real and necessary.

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