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OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

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Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#361
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> based entirely on the announcements of the inference providers themselves who also get very cagey when asked to show their work I mean sure, it's self reported. But the inference prices somewhere like Fireworks or TogetherAI charges is comparable to what Google/AWS/Azure charge for the same model an we know they aren't losing money - they have public accounts that show it, eg: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/wall…

> If someone has a subscription then yes that is pretty normal. Not if you've substantively changed rate limits 3 times in the last 5 months while still counting those forecast revenues. In most industries that's called rug-pulling.

It doesn’t matter how you call it. A recurring subscription on the books is a recurring subscription. Yes you can cancel anytime (how generous of them), it also doesn’t matter.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#362

> The broad consumer reach of ChatGPT creates a powerful distribution channel into the workplace They mention this line in different forms a couple of times in the article. It’s clear they’re pretty rattled about Anthropic’s momentum in enterprise, I wonder how confident they really are in this rationale.

I don't know if it's guaranteed to work, but the strategy is real. I know Notion won vs. competitors in the space because they focused on consumer first, and consumers then brought Notion into their workplaces.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why do you think twenty competitors can stay competitive for years to come? Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end. TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impo…

Google has completely caught OpenAI. Anthropic has a better coding model, but I'm sure Google is working on that too.

> Anthropic has a better coding model

I’ll be polite and call this statement ‘a very debatable’ one.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#364
post #69

With $122B what are you going to build next? Spaceships?

Google makes money like that in their sleep from mostly just advertising.

OpenAI charges about 20$/month to tens of millions of users right now. 240/year. About 12 billion per year. That's a market that could grown to billions of people with a long tail probably not paying a lot but being served ads; and a fat high end paying a lot more than that for an ad free/premium experience. They should be able to reach billions of users.

It's why Google is matching investments in AI like this entirely from the profit from ads.

Going to space isn't that expensive. SpaceX bootstrapped with a lot less than that.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#365
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an absurd leap. OpenAI is the maga brand because they simp for government contracts like any massive company would?

Did you miss the cancel/unsubscribe gpt boycott? It was only about a month ago. Many people I know cancelled/unsubscribed. To be fair though, most people I have talked with needed almost no encouragement to move to anthropic or google (better products, easy to switch etc). Consumer sentiment can change quickly.

Many people in your bubble cancelled.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why do you think twenty competitors can stay competitive for years to come? Industries always consolidate and winners emerge. SOTA LLMs look like a natural monopoly or duopoly to me because the cost to train the next model keeps going up such that it won't make sense for 20 competitors to compete at the very high end. TSMC is a perfect example of this. Fab costs double every 4 years (Rock’s Law). It's almost impo…

The barrier to replicating TSMC isn't just cost, it's supply chain, geopolitics, and talent. Only one company on Earth can make the UV lithography machines TSMC buys for their highest end fabs, and they're not selling to anyone else. The PRC tried to brute force this supply chain backed by the full might of the Party's blank check, all red tape cut, literally the best possible duplication scenario, and they failed.

They will succeed eventually since they have proof it’s possible and their plans span decades. I expect them to have working EUV in 10 years. Whether it’ll still be bleeding edge tech is a different question I dare not guess the answer to.

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#368
post #121
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that is revenue only. In the past 15 or so years most US companies (and especially startups) always talk about revenue only. Wheras only profit should matter. E.g. what good is 20 billion per year when "OpenAI is targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spending through 2030". That is $150 billion per year?

> Wheras only profit should matter Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. During growth, you want positive operating margins with nominal profits. When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money. If you can find a way to invest those profits in new areas of growth, that’s better.

> Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend.

Profit is the money showing your business is sustainable. Ever since the ZIRP era US companies keep haemorrhaging money at a rate that is physically impossible to recoup.

If OpenAI plans to lose 100+ billion dollars per year for half a decade, what profits are you talking about to offset the losses?

> When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money.

Ah yes. Shareholders like money. And not, you know, basic accounting like "we need money to actually pay salaries, pay for equipment and offices etc. without perpetually relying on seeming endless investor money".

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#369
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wheras only profit should matter Profit is money you couldn’t figure out how to spend. During growth, you want positive operating margins with nominal profits. When the company/market matures, you want pure profits because shareholders like money. If you can find a way to invest those profits in new areas of growth, that’s better.

Not sure why you’re downvoted. Everyone wants to treat OpenAI like a car wash business where they need to make a profit almost immediately. I don’t know why people can’t understand that the industry is in a rapid growth stage and investing the money is more important than making a profit now. The profits will come later.

"Profits will come later" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47597480

Re: OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation

#370
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give me a billion and I'll have 500M of revenue in no time by selling dollars at 50 cents.

Why are we treating OpenAI and Anthropic differently than say, Amazon or Uber? Both companies invested in growth for many years before making a profit. Most tech companies in the last 2-3 decades lost money for years before making a profit. Why are we saying that OpenAI and Anthropic can't do the same?

> Why are we treating OpenAI and Anthropic differently than say, Amazon or Uber?

The dame Uber that lost close to 30 billion dollars over 10 years to subsidize its price dumping?

No, no we are not treating OpenAI differently than Uber

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