Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US Job Market Visualizer

karpathy.ai

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 388 posts

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#361

Post by lm28469 »

pc86 wrote: post #284
matthest wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitionally the 1% is people making ~$800k+ a year. Upper-middle class is people making ~$200k/year. A lot of people have moved from middle class to upper middle class over the last decade. Both those categories are outside the 1%.

A good indicator that someone is simply being dogmatic and not arguing in good faith (e.g. actually trying to understand someone's POV, and being open to being proven wrong in their assumptions) is when it takes them 5-20 minutes to reply until a particularly good point is made and then they disappear into the ether.

That's called "having a life" or "living in a different timezone"

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#362

Post by ForHackernews »

jvanderbot wrote: post #352
ForHackernews wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your math is missing the fact that Apple products are differentiated from their competitors. If AI becomes a ubiquitous commodity, it's not worth 300B/y. Potable water is far more important than AI or iPads ever will be, but the world's most valuable water company only does about 5B/year in revenue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Water_Works

The point is that the market is big , and capturing a small part of it would make these companies wildly successful; and there's no need to make unemployment inevitable - I think this diminishes the AI Doom story quite a bit.

It absolutely diminishes the AI Doom story, but it also diminishes the AI Will Be The Golden Goose story, they are two sides of the same coin. The AI companies can only capture that surplus if there are not competitive substitutes available.

In the same way that Amazon gets rich taking ElasticSearch for free and charging for hosting, Amazon will take free models and charge to host them. The companies building frontier models have massive R&D costs and no moat.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#363

Post by oscaracso »

SamuelAdams wrote: post #341
dfadsadsf wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

200-500k would make a large negative impact in healthcare. Specialty doctors cannot be trained in a snap, and there are limits on how many MDs and DOs are churned out of schools. So healthcare industries turn to H1Bs to hire specialty positions in underserved / rural areas. The alternative is to shut these facilities down, which has other negative aspects to communities.

I was surprised to hear in this thread that there is a physician shortage in the US, because my understanding was that most Americans go to university and that doctors are paid well. Why aren't more graduates pursuing careers in medicine?

It turns out that they are, but (if I do not misread the situation) there is a regulatory bottleneck:

>The United States is grappling with a physician shortage, but the solution does not lie in simply opening more medical schools. As a physician-scientist and former founding dean of a medical school, I argue that the true bottleneck is not the number of medical school graduates but the insufficient number of residency training positions. Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, which froze the number of Medicare-funded residency slots, the United States has seen a steady increase in medical graduates, yet the availability of residency spots has stagnated. This mismatch between undergraduate medical education (UME) expansion and the lack of corresponding growth in graduate medical education (GME) is the key issue.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12256077/

As this has been the arrangement since 1997, by now a graduated American child of an immigrant H1B specialist trained in a foreign country may be unable to secure a 'residency training position' and therefore unable to practice medicine in his or her own country? It sounds absurd.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#364

Post by tehaugmenter »

nitwit005 wrote: post #177
holmesworcester wrote: post #45

It's wild that there are as many jobs in the category "Top Executives" as in the category "Retail Sales Worker". This makes sense given both automation and the US's role in the global economy, but it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality.

I took one glance at the chart and decided the results were impossible because of that. Apparently "top executive" median pay is $105,350 per year: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/top-executives.htm

Congress people are making about $176k, it's crazy to think top execs "median" make less than a congressman.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#365

Post by oscaracso »

SilverElfin wrote: post #321
Dig1t wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have hit the cap for H1B's every year and we will always do so until we get rid of the program. Cheap labor will always be in demand. A 100k one-time fee is nothing for big employers. That's 25k/year for 4 years, and if you realize that H1B's can't easily leave their job it's obviously worth it. Compare hiring an H1B that is stuck at their job, to an American who can leave at any time. You can pay the H1B a lower…

> Cheap labor will always be in demand. H1Bs are not cheap labor. They’re almost always pricier than the alternative to the company. This is a myth that is ultimately rooted in racism more than facts. Most of the top H1B filers - big tech companies in particular - pay literally identically for the same job. They have fixed pay structures internally, in part because if you don’t, you could face discrimination lawsuits…

I do not see how the facts you present call into question the basic logic that as you increase the availability of a commodity, say labour, you anticipate its price to diminish. All of the immigrant workers could be better-compensated and more productive than all of the American workers, and still their presence could drive the price of labour for native workers in that sector down. E.g., if there is a shortage of repairmen certified to fix some medical equipment, introducing a glut of new repairmen who are even more productive will fail to reduce the compensation of the incumbents only in exceptional circumstances.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#366

Post by sgerenser »

dfadsadsf wrote: post #274
ravenstine wrote: post #250

Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!

Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's…

The current $100K fee doesn’t apply to people changing from a student visa. This was long the path of people in software dev or other high tech careers: get a masters or PhD in the U.S., then get an H1B to start working. For those already on H1B after starting on that path, again the fee does not apply if they want to change jobs and have the new employer sponsor their H1B. So hiking that fee to $200K or more wouldn’t really change things much, at least in tech.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#367

Post by ArtificeAccount »

newsclues wrote: post #119
ks2048 wrote: post #112

Bet on high job-growth market: Security guard for data centers. Stand in front with a gun while mobs come to burn down the data center that took their jobs. (I think I'm half joking).

Oh please that will be done by drone and killer robots.

Drones took the jobs of angry mobs and the world will never be the same.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#368

Post by nizsle »

Love this. My only critique is that this perspective may lend credence to doomerism as the new categories of AI enabled jobs will lag in being captured by official statistics compared to the rate of established jobs being identified as under risk by ever more capable AI. That is, it will capture occupational risk better than occupational opportunities and feed a zero sum mindset view of the economy.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#369

Post by pc86 »

lm28469 wrote: post #361
pc86 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good indicator that someone is simply being dogmatic and not arguing in good faith (e.g. actually trying to understand someone's POV, and being open to being proven wrong in their assumptions) is when it takes them 5-20 minutes to reply until a particularly good point is made and then they disappear into the ether.

That's called "having a life" or "living in a different timezone"

I didn't say A means B 100% of the time, just that it's an indicator. The same way having a car with a lot of dings and scratches and holes doesn't mean you're a bad driver, you could have just purchased it that way or they could have happened through no fault of your own. But it's still an indicator - one piece of evidence to be looked at holistically.

But I notice you haven't actually responded to the point that "the 1%" actually does mean "your neighbor with a nice house and a pool" because $800k income puts you in the 1%. That's two doctors in not-particularly-highly-paid specialties. That's two good attorneys at big firms. That's two FAANG software engineers. Definitionally there's not going to be a ton of people in that group, it's hard to get into that group, but they're everywhere not just billionaires twirling their mustache and trying to reroute rivers to sell the water like some caricature.

Re: US Job Market Visualizer

#370

Post by jjtheblunt »

jjtheblunt wrote: post #121
jvanderbot wrote: post #107

My takeaway here: 3.XT $ of US salaries are the TAM for AI companies. Apple, a very successful company, makes 300B/y revenue? (ish) ~10% is all you need to be Apple. And, it can work by taking all of 10% of the jobs and collecting the whole salary (the AI employee -- dubious proposition), or by taking 10% of everyone's salary and automating part of everyone's job (the AI "tool" -- much more plausible). If "part" bein…

"TAM" = ?

( thanks, all )
Post reply on HN