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This time is different

shkspr.mobi

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Re: This time is different

#361

Post by mayoff »

gorgoiler wrote: post #236
rogerrogerr wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument is the one that shook me, I’m curious if you think there’s any merit to it: Humans have essentially three traits we can use to create value: we can do stuff in the physical world through strength and dexterity, and we can use our brains to do creative, knowledge, or otherwise “intelligent” work. (Note by “dexterity” I mean “things that humans are better at than physical robots because of our shape and n…

I think you are right, but here’s a fun counter-example. I recently bought a new robot* to do some of my housework and yet, at around 200lbs, it required two people to deliver it (strength) get it set up (dexterity) and explain to me how to use it (intelligence). * https://www.mieleusa.com/product/11614070/w1-front-loading-w...

Most of the “delivery” (getting it from the factory to its final installed location) was done by machine: forklifts, cranes, ships, trucks, and (I'm guessing) a motorized lift on the back of the delivery truck.

Re: This time is different

#362

Post by nicbou »

dwoldrich wrote: post #258
nicbou wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The winner that deserved to win might turn into the complacent monopoly pf tomorrow. It might vow to Not Be Evil for a while, but the investors will demand that it does whatever it takes to grow.

Enshittification usually means you are right over time. It still kindof depends. To be fair, I also dislike abstract platitudes that are overly optimistic as I think you might be. "Diversity is our strength"?? I mean, I guess diversity of _opinion_ is desirable to a point so we get all the ideas on the table. But not at the sacrifice of unity and shared goals. Unity is our strength. Discord and wasteful politicking a…

Google had "don't be evil" and even that bar was not low enough.

Re: This time is different

#363

Post by waffletower »

The author, and even posters here in the comments, have neglected to speak of a related and highly successful technology -- search engines -- instead focusing on the broader internet as a technological development. Google's search engine product has earned billions. At a minimum, AI has disrupted, transformed and radically improved this ubiquitous technology already. That alone, and AI has many other transformative applications already productized (Claude Code anyone?), earns its place well ahead of the hyped technologies list the author has provided.

Re: This time is different

#364

Post by azan_ »

qsera wrote: post #323
azan_ wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You keep repeating it, but it’s obviously wrong in practice. I guess you can make an argument that sending WhatsApp message or generating video is just a search job but that’s not a great argument for why humans wouldn’t get replaced - it doesn’t matter if LLMs can be reduced to search tools, but if their output is good enough approximation of human worker output. If it is then it has a chance to replace human, even…

Yes, a better search tool will automate a lot of currently employed manual search jobs.

Surely you must realise that calling things like programming or different types of office jobs (which are almost replaceable even today) "manual search jobs" is absurd?

Re: This time is different

#365

Post by keeda »

direwolf20 wrote: post #327
keeda wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah and until ChatGPT I thought even 50 years was optimistic, which is why current days feel like SciFi! However, at its essence, the current AI revolution has been driven primarily by a few key algorithmic breakthroughs (cf the Bitter Lesson), which are relatively easy to scale up through compute. On the other hand, the constraints on robotics are largely supply chain-related. The current SOTA for dexterity in robo…

Some types of motors don't require permanent magnets. If we need more motors than we can make permanent magnets, we'll adapt, perhaps with an efficiency loss.

Motors with permanent magnets are preferred because they are much more cost- and energy-efficient, even with the painful reliance on REEs. There is a very strong incentive to find alternatives but nothing comparable has been found yet.

There are of course non-electric alternatives like hyrdaulic and pneumatic actuators but they are mostly good for power, not dexterity. The size and complicated fluid dynamics simply are not conducive for fine motor control. I do think these will play a large part eventually because even electric motors cannot economically produce enough force to be practically useful. Like, last I checked, the base-level Unitree robots can lift 2kg or so? Not even enough to lift a load of laundry.

At this point I suspect we'll end up with hydraulics for strength (arms, legs, torso) and electrics for dexterity (grippers)

Re: This time is different

#366

Post by keeda »

imtringued wrote: post #307
keeda wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physical labor, especially jobs requiring dexterity, will be left for a long time yet. Largely because robotics hardware production cannot scale to meet the demand anytime soon. Like, for many decades. I actually asked Gemini Deep Research to generate a report about the feasibility of automation replacing all physical labor. The main blockers are primarily critical supply chain constraints (specifically Rare Earth El…

Uh, out of all the things that are the bottleneck, you think it's robotics hardware that is the bottleneck? In an age where seemingly every single robot company has a humanoid prototype whose legs are actively supported through high powered actuators that are strong enough to kick your ribs in? In an age where the recent advancements in machine learning have given bipedal walking a solution that is 80% of the way to…

Note I didn't say the bottleneck is the hardware itself, it's the supply chain for production of the hardware. Specifically the Rare Earth Elements, as I explained here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47178210

A bit more detail in this article: https://www.adamasintel.com/humanoid-robots-and-the-future-o...

Re: This time is different

#367

Post by qsera »

azan_ wrote: post #364
qsera wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, a better search tool will automate a lot of currently employed manual search jobs.

Surely you must realise that calling things like programming or different types of office jobs (which are almost replaceable even today) "manual search jobs" is absurd?

I didn't name any jobs.

Re: This time is different

#368

Post by jon_north »

direwolf20 wrote: post #322
libraryofbabel wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d rather talk about the history of steam engines than AI today, so: let’s just say it sounds like at some time in the past you saw a clunky inefficient Newcomen steam engine pumping water out of a coal mine, and you hated it, and now you think that’s all steam engines are or can be or can do: they’re loud and annoying and they’re just for pumping coal mines. Then one day someone tells you they’re powering mechanize…

Where is the huge mass of good software that AI has created?

Yup. I judge by results too. I'm still waiting for that too.

I see a whole lot of software created by smart people - as far as I can tell, about the same amount of software they would have created on their own.

Open to being wrong! But show me the results.

Re: This time is different

#369

Post by bandrami »

selridge wrote: post #345
bandrami wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right but this agentic stuff was supposed to be the wave where we would finally actually see increased output, so we should probably be seeing it soon if it's real. Like, my dev team should definitely have the actual code they keep talking about their agents making, ready for me to put into production. As should my vendors. Any day now.

What is this nonsense? You said that none of this was in production and then when people pointed out that it was obviously in production, you shifted the goal post to some other measure that you just imagined in your head.

Well, if it's in production, it's not at my company, any of my vendors, or for that matter any of the software I use in my private life; the pace of all of that is exactly what it was 2 years ago. When it shows up I'll form an opinion.

Re: This time is different

#370

Post by [deleted] »

jodrellblank wrote: post #329
massysett wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not at all, I fully appreciate that these inventions transformed life. I’m skeptical because so much of the breathless AI chatter claims AI will eclipse all these inventions. It is the breathless AI commentators, not I, who have lost all perspective on the magnitude and sweep of history.

You think an artificial intelligence would have less impact on the world than the steam engine? The AI commentators are not saying that ELIZA will change the world, they’re saying that one of the big companies is moments away from an AGI. Sam Altman called a recent ChatGPT model a “PhD level expert”; wouldn’t infinite PhDs for $20/month or $200/month be transformative? That is, your objection isn’t the usual “LLMs ar…

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