Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#361

Post by strogonoff » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC

jbstack wrote: post #319

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

Many sports gamblers (horse racing, etc.) will say it’s about skill. They believe they shift the risk in their favor because they have the data and because they bet strategically so as to win over long term. (They can spend a while detailing it for you if you are willing to listen.)

Prediction markets in general can make anyone feel like it’s about data and skills. If they lose, then they didn’t have the good enough information, so clearly they should improve their skill, right?

From my understanding, purely natural events aside, the probability of you betting against the “house” will always approach 1. If the platform is centralised, they have a strong incentive to influence the stakes, or (this has been documented) straight up limit your ability to bet if you are winning “too much”—enough to cost them real money. If the platform is open and decentralised, “house” is another player with much more capital and personal influence in the matter than you (for example, some president can bet that he would invade a country—and then invade it; some footballer can bet that he wouldn’t score N times—then score N-1 and fake an injury at the most favourable time; of course, they would use intermediaries, and only the careless ones will get burnt).

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#362

Post by JKCalhoun » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:36 PM UTC

"…time, there was a 36 percent chance that the president would annex Greenland. “Whoa, way up there!” Enten yells, slapping his hands together. “My goodness gracious!” The ticker at the bottom of the screen speeds through other odds: Will Gavin Newsom win the next presidential election…"

Like reading some kind of Twilight Zone episode script [1] starring William Shatner…

[1] https://youtu.be/405IKLIMvJo

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#363

Post by lordgrenville » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:40 PM UTC

tantalor wrote: post #331

> MoviePass announced that it will begin testing a betting platform. Huh. That's interesting. Given futures markets on box office receipts are illegal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

Matt Levine discussed this a couple of weeks back: "It’s probably fine, though; you can bet on Netflix streaming numbers or Rotten Tomatoes scores. It is fun to think that everything is gambling except onions and movies, but it’s probably not true."

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#364

Post by trollbridge » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:41 PM UTC

_heimdall wrote: post #333

anonymous908213 wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is one of the takes I've ever read. There is a reason gambling is so tightly regulated worldwide, and it's certainly not because governments hate easy vice tax revenue. Gambling debt destroys family units, increases poverty rates (most notably for the children of gambling addicts -- the consequences are not localised only to the person making the bad decisions), and increases violent crime rates. Gambling is mas…

Do you know of any studies that can accurately show the correlation between gambling and societal costs? On the surface the link makes sense to me and seems like it should be right, though I'm not sure how we could have tested it in a controlled way to really know the link exists.

One study showed a significant increase in domestic violence after gamblers lost sports bets (based on the team for a specific city losing or winning and then comparing DV rates to cities before and after legal online sports betting).

I believe it increased it about 10%.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#365

Post by trollbridge » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:42 PM UTC

moring wrote: post #330

nl wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society. This isn't true. each 10 per cent increase in gambling expenditure in NSW results in more than 4,500 additional assaults 2,800 additional home break-ins 1,300 additional break and enter (non-dwelling) offences 1,400 additional motor vehicle thefts 2,300 additional stealing from motor vehicle thefts 3,800 additional fraud offences each year https…

Is that NSW = New South Wales? I'm asking because Wikipedia lists New South Wales as a population of only 8.5 million, and those crime numbers are insanely huge relative to that.

It is, and some policy proposals have put it forward as the single largest factor of increasing crime.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#366

Post by trollbridge » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:44 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #348

nkrisc wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gambling industry itself is a net drain on society. What is the societal benefit provided by it?

Some people want to gamble and the gambling industry provides what they want. How would you like it if people who didn't care about your hobby started questioning the social benefit of allowing you to do it?

Maybe I enjoy having an arsenal of late-model machine guns, doing research on rare nuclear isotopes, brewing cholera in my septic tank, tending a Japanese knotwood garden, raising lantern flies, and breeding new strains of cold viruses.

Perhaps society should continue to restrain such hobbies.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#367

Post by SirMaster » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:49 PM UTC

jbstack wrote: post #319

thecupisblue wrote: post #280

Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

Is it gambling if the outcome can be shifted through the application of your money and influence?

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#368

Post by Ajedi32 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:53 PM UTC

layoric wrote: post #253

Joker_vD wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Enough "Market for all the things" already.. See, there are two major flavours of pro-market attitudes. The first one is "if we allow many independent individuals to try their own approaches to a problem and let the people with "better" approach to personally profit from it handsomely and make them compete against each other in an environment with objective-ish judgement of "what is better" instead of "impress the…

Right, a market is a small tool of larger systems. That’s fine, hard to get right but can make systems better. Type two just seems to be the cargo culted everywhere..

I think it's actually not that hard to get right (or at least "right enough"), as evidenced by the fact that markets have successfully run the entire global economy for thousands of years with no central oversight and almost no regulation.

Markets failures do happen, and when they do it can be helpful to have an external force step in to nudge the market back onto the rails. But even without such interventions they work remarkably well on balance.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#369

Post by irishcoffee » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:54 PM UTC

SirMaster wrote: post #367

jbstack wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…

Is it gambling if the outcome can be shifted through the application of your money and influence?

Ask a VC.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#370

Post by pvab3 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 2:56 PM UTC

BoxFour wrote: post #349

_heimdall wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know of any studies that can accurately show the correlation between gambling and societal costs? On the surface the link makes sense to me and seems like it should be right, though I'm not sure how we could have tested it in a controlled way to really know the link exists.

There are a bunch of studies out there [0][1] (two I found immediately) showing the risks around problem gambling, but like with most vices people who’ve already picked the pro side tend to react in the same predictable ways (myself included): 1) Dismissal: Feigning or having a profound misunderstanding of how statistics work by poking at the methodology like “N=200? That’s meaningless.” 2) Apathy: “So what if some p…

There's also a version of rationalization where people project arguments from the war on drugs to illegal gambling, as though the enforcement of illegal gambling was somehow had costs greater than just letting anyone bet any amount of money from their phones.