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The next two years of software engineering

addyosmani.com

361–370 of 403 posts

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An AI-enabled developer is still a full-time job that requires SWE expertise. I think the quoted portion is correct, but it will be a gradual change as CTO/CIOs realize the arbitrage opportunity in replacing most of their crappy SaaS subscriptions with high-velocity in-house solutions. The savvy ones, at least.

This is true if you want to build professional software. But what I foresee is a lot more tasks being accomplished with task-specific tools created by the people responsible for doing those tasks. Like how people use spreadsheets to get their jobs done, but with a much broader set of use cases. Once it is easier to just make almost anything yourself than it is to go through a process of expressing your requirements t…

That works until it’s important enough to secure, monitor, operate, debug, and have people on call in case it breaks.

At that point it gets handed over to the engineers.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#363
post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I couldn't disagree more. Europe is on the verge of full-blown fascism. Europe has Reform (UK), AfD (Germany) and National Front (France) as well as Hungary. Europe created the Russia-Ukraine problem by giving their energy security to Russia. Interestingly, this is a (super) rare win for the first Trump administration: forcing Europe to build an LNG port in 2018 [1] and warning against the dangers of dependence on…

I was following you until you implied everyone who’s not a communist is a Nazi.

Yeah, they don't really teach this part in history [1]:

> At the height of the Cold War in the 1950s, law enforcement and intelligence leaders like J. Edgar Hoover at the F.B.I. and Allen Dulles at the C.I.A. aggressively recruited onetime Nazis of all ranks as secret, anti-Soviet “assets,” declassified records show. They believed the ex-Nazis’ intelligence value against the Russians outweighed what one official called “moral lapses” in their service to the Third Reich.

And NATO [2]:

> The most senior officers of the latter group were Hans Speidel and Adolf Heusinger, who on Oct. 10 and Nov. 12, 1955, respectively, were sworn in as the Bundeswehr’s first two lieutenant generals... Heusinger, a POW until 1948, ...

> That spring Heusinger succeeded Speidel as chief of Combined Forces when the latter was appointed commander in chief of Allied Land Forces in Central Europe becoming the first German officer to hold a NATO commander in chief position

And it goes on.

Nazi links are well-established to Operation Paperclip [3] under Werner von braun.

And there are many others [4].

I didn't say all the non-communists were Nazi. I said the neoliberal and imperialist projects of the US and Western Europe post-WW2 sided with and gave haven to Nazis to fight communism, which is true.

Fascism in the US didn't begin with the Nazis however. You can trace back the roots to the white supremacy the US was founded on, the slave trade, the Civil War, Reconstruction and even the Business Plot [5] that sought to overthrow FDR in 1933, probably labelling him a communist.

But the Nazis were very popular in the US, culminating with the German American Bund rally in Madison Square Gardens in 1939 [6].

Oh and let's not forget Henry Ford's contribution to all this, notably The International Jew [7], so much so that Hitler praised him in Mein Kampf.

Personally, I'm of the view that a lot of this can be traced back to simply not stringing up all the former slave owners after the Civil War.

[1]: https://archive.ph/A8HHC

[2]: https://www.historynet.com/these-nato-generals-had-unusual-b...

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Paperclip

[4]: https://www.npr.org/2014/11/05/361427276/how-thousands-of-na...

[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot

[6]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Nazi_rally_at_Madison_Squ...

[7]: https://www.thehenryford.org/collections-and-research/digita...

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#364
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making some strong assumptions about other industries which are incorrect. All of that exists elsewhere and is not so unique to software as you may think. Things are never that simple. Your argument reads more as a justification to the status quo and gatekeeping rather than being objective. I'm sure the doctors would have said something similar for their profession too but it doesn't necessarily mean it is tru…

>doctors would have said something similar for their profession Actually that applies to doctors. A doctor who is not curious and is not willing to do learn/research on their own initiative is only a marketing hand of pharma. But it is quite hard for doctors to do any real research independently. They can't really do experiments on real people... Software is really special.

So a software engineer who is not curious enough to invest 15+ hours daily over the course of years is just a marketing hand of ... what ... programming language of their choice or company they work for?

Don't get me wrong. I am that guy, who probably over-invested into the development of his skills but I don't think it's a normal thing to expect.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#365

imo, The OP has bad ai-assisted takes on almost every single "critical question". This makes me doubt if he has breadth of experience in the craft. For example. > Narrow specialists risk finding their niche automated or obsolete Exactly the opposite. Those with expertise will oversee the tool. Those without expertise will take orders from it. > Universities may struggle to keep up with an industry that changes every…

I think this is a fair take (despite the characteristic HN negativity/contrarianism), and succinctly summarizes a point that I was finding hard to articulate while reading the article.

My similar (verbose) take is that seniors will often be able to wield LLMs productively, where good-faith LLM attempts will be the first step, but will be frequently be discarded when they fail to produce the intended results (personally I find myself swearing at the LLMs when they produce trite garbage; output that gets `gco .`-ed immediately- or LLM MR/PRs that get closed in favor of manually accomplishing the prompted task).

Conversely, juniors will often wield LLMs counterproductively, accepting (unbeknown) tech debt that the neither the junior nor the LLM will be able to correct past a given complexity.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#366
post #257

TBH, it all feels like a huge gamble at this point. Neither skills, education, institutional ties, nor current employment can guarantee a stable foundation for life. This hits harder depending on how much money, social capital, or debt you accumulated before this volatility began. If you’ve paid off your debts, bought a house, and stabilized your family life, you’re gambling with how comfortable the coming years will…

I say this without hyperbole: we are (IMHO) on the verge of total systemic collapse. We've had 50+ years of deteriotating worker conditions and a massive concentration of wealth to like 10,000 people. The 1980s crushed the labor movement, to all of our detriment. The GFC destroyed the career prospects of many millenials who discovered their entry-level positions no longer existed so we created a generation that we're…

> we are (IMHO) on the verge of total systemic collapse. (...) At this point, it ends violently and sooner than many think.

This is, in a twisted way, an expression of hope. The expectation of a grand collapse is one that's shared by many, but can you explain what gives you that complete certainty that it's near or that it's coming at all?

The far bleaker possibility that I think is totally realistic is that things continue getting worse, but they never cross over the final line. Things are mismanaged, everyone is worse off, but that nine-meal gap is never allowed to happen, and any real threats are squashed at the roots. There's no singular collapse, instead of one definitive societal stab wound that's followed by long hospital recovery, we're inflicted with a thousand minor cuts to near-death.

The people who benefit from all this have been refining their knowledge and growing their power and influence. They're near-gods at this point. They may make a mistake, but what if they don't and the current situation is maintained for decades to come?

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#367
post #305
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re focusing on the US. In Europe, worker protections are great. However, Europe has been lagging behind the US for a couple of decades and the gap has been growing. All tech giants are based in the US or China. Maybe things will collapse in the US now, but very unlikely to do so in Europe unless the impact from the US is so great it propagates to Europe, despite Europe itself not having done the things that cause…

Oh I couldn't disagree more. Europe is on the verge of full-blown fascism. Europe has Reform (UK), AfD (Germany) and National Front (France) as well as Hungary. Europe created the Russia-Ukraine problem by giving their energy security to Russia. Interestingly, this is a (super) rare win for the first Trump administration: forcing Europe to build an LNG port in 2018 [1] and warning against the dangers of dependence on…

> What happens to Europe with an expansionist Russia and no US security guarantee?

While European military strength isn't in its prime right now, their capabilities without the US are often way underestimated. Not that most of the other issues aren't applicable - everyone appears to be more or less fucked in multiple ways - but losing a conventional war to Russia isn't on the table, barring unthinkable mismanagement or a world-changing event (preemptive use of nukes, etc). Russia has stalemated a war against a singular country that has a fraction of Russia's wealth, loads of antiquated equipment and a small sample of Western tech. The Russian economy has a massive hole in it largely thanks to said war, and is only propped up by existing savings - they're not in danger right now, they're rapidly approaching that point with no way of stopping. Even if the war never happened, they'd still be far weaker than the whole of Europe and likely some individual European countries.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#368
post #305
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re focusing on the US. In Europe, worker protections are great. However, Europe has been lagging behind the US for a couple of decades and the gap has been growing. All tech giants are based in the US or China. Maybe things will collapse in the US now, but very unlikely to do so in Europe unless the impact from the US is so great it propagates to Europe, despite Europe itself not having done the things that cause…

Oh I couldn't disagree more. Europe is on the verge of full-blown fascism. Europe has Reform (UK), AfD (Germany) and National Front (France) as well as Hungary. Europe created the Russia-Ukraine problem by giving their energy security to Russia. Interestingly, this is a (super) rare win for the first Trump administration: forcing Europe to build an LNG port in 2018 [1] and warning against the dangers of dependence on…

> Europe created the Russia-Ukraine problem by giving their energy security to Russia.

> This warning has been completely vindicated.

That's funny. The US warned Europe of dependence on Russia all the while promoting policies that antagonized Russia in Europe (e.g. NATO expansion). It's almost like the US wanted to push Europe and Russia against each other, so that it could sell its way more expensive natural gas in Europe!? Perhaps they did not anticipate the Russians would be bold enough to go to war on that, but they were certainly willing to accept the risk.

> It's the same 1930s economic conditions that gave rise to fascism last time.

Please. Europe may have some issues , but it's not nearly as bleak as you try to make it... I live here, I go around a lot. Europe is as affluent as ever. People are having a good time, in general. In the 1930's some countries had hyperinflation... you're comparing that to 5% yearly inflation these days?

> Europe has also outsourced their security to the US via NATO.

On that we agree. It was a really bad decision, but understandable given how much the US soft power after WWII was absorbed by Europeans. Some Europeans act like European countries are US states. They take to the streets to join movements that are 100% American, like BLM. It's bizarre.

> What happens to Europe with an expansionist Russia and no US security guarantee?

It shocks me that people like you think Russia is a serious threat to all of Europe, rather than just Ukraine (and maybe Moldova and Georgia if you push it). How can you justify that view? Russia has not drawn any red lines about anything related to the rest of Europe like it had with Ukraine and Georgia (which was thoroughly ignored by Europe, with the strong support and should I say it, advice of the USA), it has not said anything as threatening as Trump saying Greenland will be part of America the nice way or the hard way, yet you believe the US is not a threat, but Russia is. There's some serious dissonance in this line of thought.

> Oh and speaking of worker protections, what happens when the price of bailing out European energy or security issues is the privatizing of your otherwise universal healthcare?

Americans have been saying this for 50 years... they just can't accept that the system has been working well in Europe for workers for all this time (though not as much for companies, as you can clearly notice it's much harder to make behemoths like FAANG in Europe, no doubt because without exploiting workers you can't really do that).

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#369

Sometimes I wonder if I made the wrong choice with software development. Even after getting to a senior role, according to this article, you're still expected to get more education and work on side projects outside of work. Am I supposed to want to code all the time? When can I pursue hobbies, a social life, etc.

No. As junior you feel the pressure to make senior. You can't be junior for too long.

As senior, if you choose, you can coast. By coast I mean you do justice to your job and the salary you are paid. Its a perfectly acceptable choice for someone to be senior for as long as they want.

The biggest bottleneck is going to be what other seniors and higher think of you.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#370
post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also don’t forget the part where we’re told housing will never be affordable again in many areas, and don’t expect to be able to remote work to move to LCOL areas any more.

If the economy is profoundly affected by employment conditions going forward, how can housing costs not drop?

If majority of housing is owned for profit by REITs or landlords they have such a leverage over ordinary person, that they can indefinitely hold the prices/rents at a level where they extract maximum of available resources from owning land while making sure people have enough processed food and cheap internet-provided entertainment that they don't rebel.

The prices will adapt, but the equilibrium will always be elite-oriented economy where accommodation of the masses is a second-tier goal.

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