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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#361

Post by mk89 »

christophilus wrote: post #151
eastof wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any other way to see it than just we are too divided and 50% of our own people just think we are the bad guys? What you describe is so obvious but one political side in the US at least pretends this isn't happening and actively does anything they can to hamper any response to it. I would love to be convinced otherwise because I am also part of the division, I truly don't understand the other side at all.

I think there was a time when the other side truly believed globalization and economic progress would turn the CCP into a democratic ally. Maybe both sides believed that for a while. What you see now is just the fragmented and incoherent remains of a failed philosophy that hasn’t yet come up with a coherent replacement, so we’re left adrift with no rational foreign policy from either side (in my opinion).

Well, they first saw the opportunity of cheap manufacturing. Then they saw the democratic ally. But let's say...at the very bottom of the top 1000 reasons to do what they did.

For me many Western politicians don't see past 5-10 years. Short-term China was Heaven (for big corp), so they used all the resources they had to justify what they did. Many called BS on that, but were treated like right wing, populists, old conservatives, naive, fear-mongering, etc. Almost a dejavu.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#362

Post by NooneAtAll3 »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #323

Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent proj…

I wonder how much scam there is on US side...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#363

Post by vkou »

monero-xmr wrote: post #279
GolfPopper wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up "Forgetting to look up" implies a desire or intent to do so. The United States - former leader of the collective West - made the choice decades ago to sacrifice everything on the altar of quarterly profits. All that remains are the consequences of that decision.

I would just be careful to discount the capitalist West. You’d have to be blind to ignore the massive overbuilding of property in China, which they are now demolishing. All of that wasted capital. Authoritarian regimes with controlled media always seem successful… until it doesn’t. Up until the USSR collapsed there were many prominent people in the West saying it was the superior system. The market test - meaning flo…

> You’d have to be blind to ignore the massive overbuilding of property in China, which they are now demolishing.

Is it all being demolished, or is 95% of it being moved into?

Because all those ghost cities that China was building that the news kept bitching about... Are now all full.

Meanwhile, in the West, we have a housing shortage. Who looks the fool now...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#364

Post by sekai »

TheRoque wrote: post #338
magic_hamster wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China, Russia, Iran, have shared interests and are known to help each other out, in some cases finding ways to go around sanctions. It's wrong to look at it as one country "vs the west". It's two sets of countries. Even if you don't fully agree with the US, a western country will have much more disagreement with countries from the other group.

Even that is true, it still doesn't make the west one block, and such title makes it believe so. There are no chip makers in Europe, so why even include it on the title ?

Because ASML exists, and it's based in Europe.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#365

Post by vkou »

mullingitover wrote: post #212
chii wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> immense supply chain options. so this begs the question - why isn't the west's own supply chain options as immense? My unresearched answer is that the gov't policies of the west doesn't induce it, while china's gov't does (which includes targeted subsidies, tax incentives and state driven finances). The "hidden" cost is that the workers in this supply chain isn't as well paid and isn't as powerful as the workers fr…

> why isn't the west's own supply chain options as immense? The US explicitly chose to be a service economy. China explicitly chose to be a mercantile economy. The US can absolutely switch paths, it will just take a long time and will require pushing millions into poverty. But we're on track to do it.

> But we're on track to do it.

The only thing that the US is on track to is getting a taste of what real corruption feels like, enriching Trump's friends, and hollowing out its middle class.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#366

Post by Betelgeux »

csomar wrote: post #314
monero-xmr wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would just be careful to discount the capitalist West. You’d have to be blind to ignore the massive overbuilding of property in China, which they are now demolishing. All of that wasted capital. Authoritarian regimes with controlled media always seem successful… until it doesn’t. Up until the USSR collapsed there were many prominent people in the West saying it was the superior system. The market test - meaning flo…

> You’d have to be blind to ignore the massive overbuilding of property in China Isn't the same now happening with the US with the massive overbuilding of AI capacity? Seems like a tightly centralized capitalist system is not that different from a communist one.

Or rather thinking one step forward the question arises, whether we use the right words for the right things? Does the capitalist West has any defining economics characteristics of a liberal free-market capitalism at all?

Private ownership of means of production: On an atomic, legal level of course. But if point at an NVIDIA based compute rack at a US based random datacenter, can someone tell me actually who owns it? I am interested in the actual natural person who has an ownership share of this capital asset, not the myriads of layers of corporate and financial networks of equity delegations through investment banks, but the actual owner?

Profit oriented: Of course, it is said so. But do really companies, entrepreneurs do things to maximize the profits of the actual owners, shareholders? Are the executives and boards really that keen on putting forward the interest - of the previously referenced unknown - actual owner of the capital assets?

Free market based: This has also multiple sub-characteristics, but most importantly something about competition, or rather the lack of collusion and that economic actors (including consumers, (natural person) investors) are all fully informed. How much is this true in the West?

I think we are very much lost in labels.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#367

Post by yanhangyhy »

vasco wrote: post #354
yanhangyhy wrote: post #323

Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent proj…

> since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. This implies copying what someone else did. Rather than inventing something new. I know it's not what you meant but if it wasn't made by God it's because it's already made by someone else. The sentence says to me more about copying than some relentless pursuit. The people who invented the thing to copy, those were more relentless presumably. And then…

You’re not wrong to think that way. But now there’s less and less left for China to “copy,” and it’s hard to argue that many things aren’t being invented by China itself.

Perhaps the real question is this: why is it that places that used to be technologically advanced no longer produce new, original inventions? Is it fear of China copying them? Did the U.S. decide not to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet because it was afraid China would copy it? Did it stop working on battery technology because it feared China would copy that too?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#368

Post by literallywho »

monero-xmr wrote: post #279
GolfPopper wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> pursuing quarterly profits and forgetting to look up "Forgetting to look up" implies a desire or intent to do so. The United States - former leader of the collective West - made the choice decades ago to sacrifice everything on the altar of quarterly profits. All that remains are the consequences of that decision.

I would just be careful to discount the capitalist West. You’d have to be blind to ignore the massive overbuilding of property in China, which they are now demolishing. All of that wasted capital. Authoritarian regimes with controlled media always seem successful… until it doesn’t. Up until the USSR collapsed there were many prominent people in the West saying it was the superior system. The market test - meaning flo…

I swear I've been reading about overbuilding in China since, like, 2012. And I've definitely used it in arguments myself. Not only China hasn't collapsed, but it has improved massively since then, as far as I can tell.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#369

Post by vkou »

trollbridge wrote: post #280
smallmancontrov wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> same problem as the past administration Did you miss the Infrastructure act that spent $500B on roads, ports, and water projects? The CHIPS act that spent $50B on decoupling and R&D?! The Climate & Energy act ("IRA") that spent $400B on clean energy subsidies??!! I can understand the perspective of wanting more, but the forward-looking policies of the last administration were in a different galaxy compared to those…

I’ve met one person whose job was funded via the CHIPS act - she was a lawyer. I bet China’s first priority when building semiconductors isn’t hiring lawyers.

I've never met a corn farmer, but somehow the corn ends up on my plate.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#370

Post by prussia »

bean469 wrote: post #359
barrenko wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The final outcome is affected by the final 10%, you can even call it 1%, for which the semi-corrupt or "communistiquesque" countries never (seemingly) have the will or sheer talent for.

> "communistiquesque" countries never (seemingly) have the will or sheer talent for. I don't have the data to back it up, but I think that there is actually the same amount of will and talent in China as in the West

Based on the population size and school system, I'd conjecture there's more... though there is brain drain and emigration to consider.
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