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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#361

Post by urxvtcd »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #229
throwaway2037 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I completely agree. This guy is way outside his area of expertise. For those unaware, Howard Marks is a legendary investment manager with a decades-long impressive track record. Additionally, these "insights" letters are also legendary in the money management business. Personally, I would say his wisdom is one notch below Warren Buffett. I am sure he is regularly asked (badgered?) by investors what he thinks about th…

Follow-up: This letter feels like a "jump the shark" moment. Ref: https://blog.codinghorror.com/has-joel-spolsky-jumped-the-sh...

First time reading this. It's actually funny how disliking exceptions seemed crazy then but it's pretty normal now. And writing a new programming language for a certain product, well, it could turn out to be pretty cool, right? It's how we get all those Elms and so on.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#362

Post by obruchez »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#363

Post by fhd2 »

macrolime wrote: post #125
fhd2 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be considered a derivative work of the C code, therefore copyright protected, I believe. Can you replay all of your prompts exactly the way you wrote them and get the same behaviour out of the LLM generated code? In that case, the situation might be similar. If you're prodding an LLM to give you a variety of resu But significantly editing LLM generated code _should_ make it your copyright again, I believe.…

"Can you replay all of your prompts exactly the way you wrote them and get the same behaviour out of the LLM generated code? In that case, the situation might be similar. If that's not the case, probably not." Yes and no. It's possible in theory, but in practice it requires control over the seed, which you typically don't have in the AI coding tools. At least if you're using local models, you can control the seed and…

That would be interesting. I don't believe getting 100% the same bytes every time a derivative work is created in the same way is legally relevant. Take filters applied to copyright protected photos - might not be the exact same bytes every time you run it, but it looks the same, it's clearly a derivative work.

So in my understanding (not as a lawyer, but someone who's had to deal with legal issues around software a lot), if you _save_ all the inputs that will lead to the LLM creating pretty much the same system with the same behaviour, you could probably argue that it's a derivative work of your input (which is creative work done by a human), and therefore copyright protected.

If you don't keep your input, it's harder to argue because you can't prove your authorship.

It probably comes down to the details. Is your prompt "make me some kind of blog", that's probably too trivial and unspecific to benefit from copyright protection. If you specify requirements to the degree where they resemble code in natural language (minus boilerplate), different story, I think.

(I meant to include more concrete logic in my post above, but it appears I'm not too good with the edit function, I garbled it :P)

Re: Is it a bubble?

#364

Post by danybittel »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

From the article:

...AI is currently the subject of great enthusiasm. If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#365

Post by paganel »

lm28469 wrote: post #346
dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

"My technosolutionist bubble says it's not a bubble, trust me bro"

> technosolutionist

I'm going to steal this for my arrr rspod conversations.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#366

Post by fedeb95 »

about AI replacing coders, the question is not if it is doing so, but if the companies where it does so extensively will be more profitable then the others.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#367

Post by dust42 »

The question is, can SV extract several trillion dollars out of the global economy over the next few years with the help of LLMs and GPUs? And the follow-up question: will LLMs help grow the global economy by this amount - because if not, then extracting the money will lead to problems in other parts of the world. And last not least, will LLMs -given enough money to train them on ever bigger data sets- magically turn into AGI?

IMHO for now LLMs are just clever text generators with excellent natural language comprehension. Certainly a change of many paradigms in SWE. Is it also a $10T extra for the valley?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#368

Post by Zafira »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #333
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #7

> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?

I just did a review and 16% of our committed production code was generated by an LLM. Almost 80% of our code comments are LLM This is mission critical robotics software

What is the approach here? LLM generated; human validated?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#370

Post by lawn »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

That AI have the potential to be extremely disruptive does not prevent the current speculative boom to be a bubble.

People seem to have forgotten about the dotcom bubble.

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