Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

pcpartpicker.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 423 posts

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#361

Post by bigbuppo »

khannn wrote: post #356
atwrk wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it very telling that both Samsung and SK Hynix already stated that they don't plan to expand capacity - officially to prevent overcapacity in the future. It would also be plausable that both doubt OpenAI will follow through with the contract.

I sincerely hope that OpenAI goes down in flames with those DRAM contracts are going to the highest bidder then so probably Google or whatever AI competitor. Honestly having problems remembering the other AI companies without googling it. I recall MS, Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Anthropic.

When OpenAI fails, all the AI projects everywhere else will also be killed. Such is the nature of bubbles. With any luck the farm land where the datacenters were built will be sold back to the farmers for half off and they get a free barn out of the deal.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#362

Post by wing-_-nuts »

jdthedisciple wrote: post #192
markbao wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people have phones that can handle webpages with 1-5MB JS bundles. Why artificially limit what you can do on the web? Why limit ourselves to 1GB RAM when more resources means tech becomes more useful? Returning to simple webpages is popular idea on HN but it’s like wanting a car with no backup camera and crank windows. If your goal is to have your car be as simple as possible, then sure, but that’s not the case…

Actually a plain car would be great I crank the window up and down 3x faster than the little button And I could adjust my damn seat before electricity is available... sigh

with you on manual seats? But crank windows? Nah man, power windows and locks are a requirement for me, as is a modern sound system, ac, and cruise control.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#363

Post by leptons »

Fokamul wrote: post #225
01HNNWZ0MV43FF wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point even if the AI bubble bursts you have a solid business as a RAM scalper

If AI bubble bursts -> global market crash. Ehm, with what you will be scalping, with bottle caps fallout money? :D

I don't really buy that AI crashing will cause "the global market" to crash. How exactly do you think that works?

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#364

Post by bigbuppo »

Bluecobra wrote: post #293
oblio wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cisco was very much not "stuff like pets.com". Most of the money lost in the dotcom crash wasn't in pets.com, it was the infrastructure companies like Cisco and Sun.

Funnily enough Cisco’s stock has recently recovered back to its dotcom peak.

Thanks to the irrational exuberance of the AI bubble...

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#365

Post by davey48016 »

paol wrote: post #280
atwrk wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it very telling that both Samsung and SK Hynix already stated that they don't plan to expand capacity - officially to prevent overcapacity in the future. It would also be plausable that both doubt OpenAI will follow through with the contract.

They don't need to expand capacity to fulfill this contract. They would want to expand capacity if they believed this increase in demand is long lasting - the implication is therefore that they don't believe it, or not enough to risk major capital expenditures. You saw the same with GPU makers not wanting to expand capacity during the Cryptocurrency boom. They don't want to be left holding the bag when the bubble pop…

Oil has been like that as well. High oil prices don't trigger nearly as much drilling as they used to.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oil-production-prices-us-compan...

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#366

Post by davey48016 »

redwood wrote: post #286
Aurornis wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big news story this cycle is that OpenAI secured two large contracts with two separate DRAM companies at the same time, carefully timing the deals so that neither DRAM company knew about the deal with other. Had either company known about the true demand from OpenAI they would have charged a lot more, but each only saw about half. In other words, there was no collusion between the DRAM manufacturers. They were bo…

I find it very hard to believe that two South Korea based Chaebol memory producers would have no wind of this from the other.. more likely is that they both agree that it is not in their or the nation's interest to take on too much of a risk profile... while also balancing the risk of appearing to be colluding.

I wonder if they caught wind, but they both thought they were competing for the same contract.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#367

Post by khannn »

bigbuppo wrote: post #361
khannn wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sincerely hope that OpenAI goes down in flames with those DRAM contracts are going to the highest bidder then so probably Google or whatever AI competitor. Honestly having problems remembering the other AI companies without googling it. I recall MS, Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Anthropic.

When OpenAI fails, all the AI projects everywhere else will also be killed. Such is the nature of bubbles. With any luck the farm land where the datacenters were built will be sold back to the farmers for half off and they get a free barn out of the deal.

The AI projects that make sense will live. Capitalism is survival of the fittest.

That farm land is dead and gone, best we can do is urban/rural decay.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#368

Post by khannn »

anakaine wrote: post #360
khannn wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sincerely hope that OpenAI goes down in flames with those DRAM contracts are going to the highest bidder then so probably Google or whatever AI competitor. Honestly having problems remembering the other AI companies without googling it. I recall MS, Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Anthropic.

They wont be going to highest bidders if they are under contract to produce at the claimed level, unless what you are referring to is the residual.

I refuse to read the AI slop that passes for journalism about the contracts OpenAI bought, but if they take physical delivery and open actual datacenters built with the RAM they'll be parted out at the minimum, if not absorbed by another AI provider or Big Tech in general.

Re: Average DRAM price in USD over last 18 months

#369

Post by kragen »

venturecruelty wrote: post #354
kragen wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Memory chips don't contain rare earths, and e-waste recyclers pay a tiny fraction of what used-hardware buyers do.

My point was not to litigate the precise method of e-waste disposal.

Your point was to post nonsense without caring about whether it was true or false in order to troll someone into responding. Please don't do that again.
Post reply on HN