361–370 of 1001 posts
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Depends on the definition, I might take that bet because under some definitions were already here. Example: better than average human across many thinking tasks is done.
Calculator can do arithmetic better than a human. Does this mean we have so called AI for half a century now?
I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.
Should probably just short nvidia
- The length of tasks AI can complete doubles every ~7 months
- In 2-4 years, AIs could autonomously complete week-long projects.
- In under 10 years, they might handle month-long software or knowledge work.
[1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...
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> Your brain is doing computation with neurotransmitters instead of transistors If it is, sure. But this isn't a given. We don't actually understand how the brain computes, as evidenced by our inability to simulate it. > Evolution didn't discover some mystical process that imbues meat with special properties Sure. But the complexity remains beyond our comprehension. Against the (nearly) binary action potential of a t…
Jonas & Kording showed that neuroscience methods couldn't reverse-engineer a simple 6502 processor [0]. If the tools can't crack a system we built and fully documented, our inability to simulate brains just means we're ignorant, not that substrate is magic. It also doesn't necessarily say great things for neuroscience! And "who said this?"... come on. Searle, Dreyfus, thirty years of "syntax isn't semantics," all the…
Nobody said the substrate is magic. Just that it isn't understood. Plenty of CS folks have also been trying to simulate a brain. We haven't figured it out. The same logic that tells you the neuroscientific model is broken at some level should inform that the brains-as-computers model is similarly deficient.
> Pointing at "multidimensional electrochemical complexity" is just phlogiston with better vocabulary
Sorry, have you figured out how to simulate a brain?
Multidimensional because you have more than one signalling chemical. Electrochemical because you can't just watch what the electrons are doing.
> Name something specific transformers can't do?
That what can't do. A neuron? A neurotransmitter-receptor system? We literally can't simulate these systems beyond toy models. We don't even know what the essential parts are--can you safely lump together N neutransmitter molecules? What's N? We're still discovering new ion channels?!
I knew this once I heard OpenAI was going to get into the porn bot business. If you have AGI you don't need porn bots.
> The models have so many cognitive deficits. One example, they kept misunderstanding the code because they have too much memory from all the typical ways of doing things on the Internet that I just wasn’t adopting.
> I also feel like it’s annoying to have to type out what I want in English because it’s too much typing. If I just navigate to the part of the code that I want, and I go where I know the code has to appear and I start typing out the first few letters, autocomplete gets it and just gives you the code.
> They keep trying to make a production code base, and I have a bunch of assumptions in my code, and it’s okay. I don’t need all this extra stuff in there. So I feel like they’re bloating the code base, bloating the complexity, they keep misunderstanding, they’re using deprecated APIs a bunch of times. It’s a total mess. It’s just not net useful. I can go in, I can clean it up, but it’s not net useful.
I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.