361–370 of 514 posts
if anyone else is curious, beyond all the political football stuff happening with the bureau of labor stats, Odd Lots did a good episode recently on the challenges with monthly jobs reports
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I think it's likely that if there was a rapid reversal, with Congress taking away the power to mess with tariffs and making it clear that it was permanently gone, there'd be some damage, but things would largely go back to normal. Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much; many of the tariffs aren't _actually_ in place yet.
> if there was a rapid reversal I have some bad news. It's already some 8 months too late for "rapid". > Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much Here in Brazil we are in a mini economic boom because every single country is willing to pay a premium on anything that didn't come from the US. The EU is shutting up internal racist and protectionist dissidents (strong on their 2 largest economies…
I'm European, not American. I think that if given strong guarantees that Trump had been declawed, the EC would be happy enough to return to prior arrangements (though probably move ahead with the Mercosur deal and other trade treaties at an accelerated pace, granted).
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I think it's likely that if there was a rapid reversal, with Congress taking away the power to mess with tariffs and making it clear that it was permanently gone, there'd be some damage, but things would largely go back to normal. Not enough time has really passed for things to change _that_ much; many of the tariffs aren't _actually_ in place yet.
The world has seen how unreliable the US is. Its not even just the tarrifs, its the tarrifs applied at random, based on how happy the Don is. The world has seen the "checks and balances" don't exist, a populist leader can do whatever they want for any reason and has no accountability. The horse has bolted, you can't ctrl-z this.
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Incentivize our basic necessities and come down hard on fraud. If a bridge needs to be rebuilt pay to have it done. If shipping infrastructure needs to be modernized pay to have it done. If we need more mining get it done. Get it done and get it done fast. If bids are won but they go and fuck all the money away send them to jail. This is how stuff worked before people became obsessed with metrics.
> If a bridge needs to be rebuilt pay to have it done. If shipping infrastructure needs to be modernized pay to have it done This is what they did in Weimar Germany, Erdogan’s Turkey and Argentina. You’re describing massive deficit spending and inflation. > If bids are won but they go and fuck all the money away send them to jail Add in Ba’athist Iraq. Also, guess what you do to fuck over your competitors in this sys…
Is jailing fraudsters really the equivalent of some failed Iragi regime? I think you could make a better argument.
What do you think should be done about the state of the USA economy? Do you even see any problems that need addressing? I have a feeling venture capitalists see wildly different incentives from the laborers.
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Luckily, fiscally responsible Trump is coming in to stop all this deficit spending... oh wait.
I was going to make a glib comment that Trump is plugging the "deficit spending" of billionaire's having to pay taxes. But given Trump policies in toto, I am having trouble coming up with what a winner looks like here. Big oil I suppose. But that's a damn narrow demographic if everything else is hurting. And overall economic malaise won't juice oil demand. If anyone can characterize the class of economic winners ...…
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If a new face can reverse policy on a dime, then that reversal can be reversed a couple of years later. It's amazing how few people seem to understand this. Countries are oil tankers, they take years to turn even a little - and that's a good thing. In 2000 the world broadly knew what was going to happen, Gore and BushII would implement pretty much the same policies. Same thing in 2008 when it was McCain and Obama. Su…
> The US does not elect a monarch. It is a constitutional monarchy with an elected, time-limited king. Monarchies generally have (and had) lots of checks on the king's power. Not necessarily the kinds of checks we would like, of course. The rights of the nobility were well-protected, the rights of landless commoners were not.
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> The US does not elect a monarch. It is a constitutional monarchy with an elected, time-limited king. Monarchies generally have (and had) lots of checks on the king's power. Not necessarily the kinds of checks we would like, of course. The rights of the nobility were well-protected, the rights of landless commoners were not.
No, it's really not. The Executive does not have these powers in the constitution. They made it up and assigned it to themselves by loosely interpreting things how they wanted. Executive orders are memos, not laws. The President has no power for legislation or budget or tariffing. We're supposed to require legislative review of any emergency actions, like using the military.
* Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty – Elevated tariffs and rapidly shifting trade policies are raising costs for manufacturers and discouraging hiring and investment (Investopedia; Atlanta Fed survey; CBO analyses).
* Automation and AI Displacement – Automation and AI, especially in low-skill occupations, are reducing new job creation and wages for some workers (academic studies in arXiv and PMC).
* Restrictive Immigration Policies – Tightened immigration and visa processes are straining labor supply, particularly in sectors that rely on immigrant workers (Axios, 2025 labor coverage).
* Small Business Strain from Economic Pressure – Tariff-related uncertainty is leading small businesses to slow hiring or lay off employees (Joint Economic Committee report, 2025).
* Offshoring and Outsourcing Trends – Technological advances are enabling offshoring and automation, substituting domestic labor with remote or machine-based alternatives (academic research in World Development, 2024).
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Firing thousands of skilled and qualified federal employees, gutting research grants and funding, spitting in our allies faces.
Those are bad things. It doesn't mean there aren't other contributors to our economic challenges.
Amazing how many here are so quick to lay the job numbers from last year at Trump's feet.
It would be quite easy to say "Added 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025" or "the year starting in March 2024", but they are clearly aiming to deflect from the Biden admin by implying last year's revisions are the fault of the administration inaugurated in January 2025.
Judging by the comments here, it worked marvelously.