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America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

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Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#361

Post by SkyBelow »

llamaimperative wrote: post #16
markus_zhang wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI is probably going to happen I think. But I don't think it's going to achieve much. Yes it's going to give common people some foothold, but with automation and AI I really doubt we need that many jobs, and unemployment rate is going to be high anyway. The elites are going to throw UBI as a bone and then they can do whatever they want. And that's it -- A cyberpunk future where elites can pretty much ignore the comm…

UBI won't fix much for a far more trivial and mechanistic reason: adding $1,000/mo to everyone's income merely gives landlords the ability to charge ($1,000*n bedrooms)/mo more in rent.

Increasing the rent price makes it much easier for new rentals to come online, as long as the government isn't effectively stopping new competitors. Much the reason why grocery stores, car mechanics, etc. aren't going to raise their prices by an average of $1k/mo.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#362

Post by bobthepanda »

chii wrote: post #296
bobthepanda wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China to a large extent is following the Japanese and South Korean playbooks, to the point where the Chinese financial system runs under the concept of window guidance invented by the Japanese: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Window_guidance The question is whether or not this blows up in China’s face when they stop accurately picking winners. We are already seeing the property bubble collapse in a manner similar to Ja…

> the question is whether or not this blows up in China’s face Japan didn't "blow up" due to picking wrong. The US and allies negotiated the value of the yen up (the plaza accords) when the trade imbalance started to rack up against the US. This popped japan's bubble, which ultimately caused their lost decade. China, on the other hand, would be unlikely to sign any sort of similar treaty with the US. Their property b…

I think there are different ways of defining bad. In Tokyo in 1990, the ratio of median house price to median income was 15. In Shanghai when the bubble popped, that figure was above 40, and even today it is at 36.

To put this in perspective, San Fransisco, a city considered to have a housing crisis, has a ratio of 9.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#363

Post by SkyBelow »

Teever wrote: post #4
tartuffe78 wrote: post #2

Who will buy the phones when no one is paid to produce them? The cars? The food and the clothes? Wealth keeps concentrating upward, great leaps in efficiency and throughput, but I can't see how it's a sustainable model for continued consumption growth year after year.

Imagine a near term scenario where a humanoid domestic robot that can do the dishes and laundry goes on sale for about the price of a luxury car. boomers who want to stay out of the retirement home for as long as possible will snap that up. Now imagine it's been a few years and one of these robots that used to go for the price of a nice car is outdated and can be bought for a couple grand and with a couple grand for…

>Why not see if it can assemble a copy of itself -- if you find a genie in a lamp why not ask it for more wishes?

Robots that can build things already exist and can be purchased second hand, but I haven't see this level of hacking them to self replicate. The logistics of getting enough parts, and having the general purpose ability to diagnose a very wide range of issues with used components, and similar seem to prevent this from being some sort of self replicating singularity.

If such a robot did already have the power to do such self replication, why would it wait for a second hand hacker instead of the builder of the robots using them to produce copies at reduce cost?

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#364

Post by throw839399939 »

dluan wrote: post #339
downrightmike wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, cool, someone is going to use ipv6

Chinese people have an irrational amount of love for international standards.

In this case it is quite rational love. Some US universities have more IPv4 addresses than entire China! Single IPv4 address cost like $50, it is impossible possible to buy large ranges.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#366

Post by riehwvfbk »

mayama wrote: post #360
chii wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they keep detailed records of your performance in school from kindergarten and a comprehensive dossier this also means you want your record pristine. And it is also why officials cover up problems rather than report it up. But their current success to out-maneuver the US in terms of trade, as well as capacity, is testament to perhaps the success of such a system. I do recall there was a massive purge on corruption…

That massive corruption purge is mainly Xi purging rival factions like Shangai and Jiang. Sure, it also targeted corrupt officials, but main target is rival factions in consolidating Xi grip on power. There isn't lot of taboo about corruption if you align with the correct faction.

And also stay aligned with the correct faction. This also provides golden handcuffs: should one's alignment change, past misdeeds will instantly be remembered.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#367

Post by riehwvfbk »

bobthepanda wrote: post #362
chii wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the question is whether or not this blows up in China’s face Japan didn't "blow up" due to picking wrong. The US and allies negotiated the value of the yen up (the plaza accords) when the trade imbalance started to rack up against the US. This popped japan's bubble, which ultimately caused their lost decade. China, on the other hand, would be unlikely to sign any sort of similar treaty with the US. Their property b…

I think there are different ways of defining bad. In Tokyo in 1990, the ratio of median house price to median income was 15. In Shanghai when the bubble popped, that figure was above 40, and even today it is at 36. To put this in perspective, San Fransisco, a city considered to have a housing crisis, has a ratio of 9.

Yeah, but the mortgage rate in China is around 3%. Individual income taxes are under 10% [0]. And there's your multiplier for affordability comparisons.

[0] https://taxfoundation.org/blog/us-china-tax-policy/

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#368

Post by riehwvfbk »

scotty79 wrote: post #274
chii wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes these plans go so successfully, when the soviets have historically not been able to make such plans successful (despite being richer and more powerful at the time)? This video about Argentina's economic failures mentions why free market capitalism failed in argentina, and why a "similar" opening up in china didnt fail (but not so much detail that another country could follow it and replicate the success).…

Soviets might just really be bad at everything. Capitalism didn't work for them either.

The non-working capitalism just kicked the collective butt of the entirety of NATO. Previously in Vietnam the non-working communism did the same.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#369

Post by greenie_beans »

llamaimperative wrote: post #356
greenie_beans wrote: post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you googling your cherry picked facts? nice debate win! (might help to have local context) regardless, why do you think land in burlington is expensive?

No, those are real numbers spot-checked from Zillow. I was on my phone and, ya know, it's an Internet argument, so they're definitely ballparked, but they are from real actual land sales inside Burlington and then a few miles outside of Burlington. I suppose the delta is surprising to you? It's expensive because it's productive. The marginal productivity of living/working in Burlington means the market can sustain hi…

i look at zillow multiple times per day so i'm well aware of the local market, so no it's not surprising me. zillow doesn't give the full picture of what is happening locally. zillow list price for vacant land doesn't consider all the vacant lots held by people who aren't building for various reasons nor does it consider the surrounding suburbs etc. or the land uvm holds but doesn't develop (who they gonna sell to? they have more money than anybody). there are a lot more variables than just zillow!

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#370

Post by jhbadger »

fancl20 wrote: post #234
dluan wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny you invoke some trad/conservative appeal to tradition, and meanwhile China's imperial history of bureaucratic machinery is never pointed to as an example of "look, technocratic meritocracy works".

I think it's well documented that modern bureaucracy is at least inspired by China's bureaucratic machinery: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Service_(United_Kingdom) > Under Charles Grant, the East India Company established the East India Company College at Haileybury near London, to train administrators, in 1806. The college was established on recommendation of officials in China who had seen the imperial examin…

Although it is worth recognizing that although the Imperial Chinese did have an examination-based civil service, it wasn't examinations on anything actually relevant to their jobs as in modern merit-based civil services. Instead, people wanting to enter the Imperial Chinese Civil Service were tested on their ability to recall trivia from classic Chinese literature. Great if the job was Jeopardy! contestant, less so for anything practical.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Books_and_Five_Classics

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