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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#361

Post by GlobalFrog »

starspangled wrote: post #312
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC is the only card Taiwan has, hence your argument doesn’t hold water. But, I think I see where you’re going: the US preemptively destroying Taiwan’s fab capacity…

> TSMC is the only card Taiwan has, No it isn't. > But, I think I see where you’re going: the US preemptively destroying Taiwan’s fab capacity… I'm not going anywhere. China would bomb TSMCs factories itself and spend hundreds of times more on an invasion and subsequent sanctions and costs than it spends on funding its own semiconductor development, if it meant it could control Taiwan. Taiwan's cards are that it is a…

My take is that it doesn’t even matter if Taipei has any card: this is not an economical/technological issue, it is an ideological one. China won’t blink an eye to invade if the conditions are right, because they want to unite their country, it is part of their identity. That might happen if anywhere else, there is a land grab. That won’t be Ukraine, because the US are not involved there, but if the US try to follow up on their claims about Greenland or Panama, Taipei is doomed within a month. As Trump is an adept of quid pro quo, that would mean a good deal for him, so the goal is to extract as much value from Taipei before letting them dead in the water.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#362

Post by DeathArrow »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #269
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

The U.S. frames its deteriorating relationship with China as a fight for “human rights” and “democracy,” but from China’s perspective, that’s just a cover for a larger campaign to contain its rise. The real issue? The U.S. fears losing global dominance and is using trade wars, tech bans, military encirclement, and financial pressure to slow China down. China doesn’t want direct military conflict—it prefers economic a…

If bad guys do something, it's bad. If good guys do the same thing, it's good.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#363

Post by re-thc »

throwaway290 wrote: post #282
re-thc wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I were China I wonder if China actually benefits from this drama and rather not claim Taiwan (despite what they say out loud). It's currently: - the best place to show military might (the "drills") - the best place to continue a proxy war with the US / EU - replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business

> replaces Hong Kong as the gray area to do business explain?

> explain?

Taiwan has most of its trade with China (like it or not).

There are numerous things that are e.g. illegal in China but "legal" in Taiwan and so Chinese business is conducted there e.g. online gambling sites.

Then there are plenty of Taiwanese companies that end up being a disguise for China 1 way or another e.g. to bypass sanctions (well so is Singapore as per recent news on nvidia gpu smuggling). 1 of the best examples is VIA technologies, that helped China create x86 CPUs back in the days.

A lot of Chinese gangs in Asia used to operate out of Hong Kong. When 1997 happened (i.e. return to China), most of them gave up or moved to other places like Taiwan since China has the death penalty.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#364

Post by DeathArrow »

jopsen wrote: post #246
raincole wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we give them the doubt of benefit: TSMC is just appeasing Trump and will delay the actual investment as much as possible. If we face the reality: Taiwan is a vassal state. The decision makers are simply owned by the US.

> If we face the reality: Taiwan is a vassal state. The decision makers are simply owned by the US. The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! It's a classic Russian talking point that Ukraine has no agency. You're making the same argument for Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. They could build nukes. They could opt to do nothing an…

>Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like.

Unless its leaders and ruling class are owned by US. It wouldn't be the first time US is directing some puppet governments.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#365

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

cheema33 wrote: post #333
jopsen wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subsequent president might realize that America might want allies, and if so they'll attempt to appear reliable. Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. A future president might want to stop such trends.

> Current administration is fast tracking nuclear prolifiacian. This is correct. Gone are the days when countries could count on the US to provide some protection against illegal invasions. All nations without nukes have to be considering them seriously now. Sure, they signed the NPT. But agreements no longer mean what they used to. Russia violates most of the agreements it signs. US already trashed the Budapest memo…

>US already trashed the Budapest memorandum that it signed in 1996. We were supposed to provide security to Ukraine in exchange for them giving up nukes.

This is a common misconception. If you read the memorandum (it's rather short) you'll see it isn't true. We only promised to seek UN Security Council action. We went far beyond that.

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/P...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#366

Post by aurareturn »

_t9ow wrote: post #337
aurareturn wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already lost access.

Exactly. Some comments here seem to imply that it's somehow good (or at least not bad ) for Taiwan's national security to transfer technology to the US because Taiwan can now more credibly threaten to destroy their fabs, completely missing the point that China wants to reunify with Taiwan with or without these fabs. It's a complete misreading of the situation; the US is in fact actively undermining Taiwan's national…

  It's a complete misreading of the situation; the US is in fact actively undermining Taiwan's national security, both 1) by coercing Taiwan to transfer its technology and human capital and 2) by banning chip trade between Taiwan and China.
Yep, but Taiwan was always a sacrificial lamb to contain China's economic rise. Unfortunately, I don't think a lot of Taiwanese people realize that. I feel sorry for them because in any military conflict, they will feel the most pain, by far.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#367

Post by DeathArrow »

raincole wrote: post #270
jopsen wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we face the reality: Taiwan is a vassal state. The decision makers are simply owned by the US. The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! It's a classic Russian talking point that Ukraine has no agency. You're making the same argument for Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't have to accept a US deal they don't like. They could build nukes. They could opt to do nothing an…

> The thing about US "vassel" states is they don't have to do what the US says. And sometimes won't! Yes, and then the US will force its way. It's quite funny that you even mentioned nukes. Taiwan did attempt to build nukes and the US destroyed the project. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/01/asia/taiwan-cia-informant...

>Taiwan did attempt to build nukes and the US destroyed the project.

US loves Taiwan so much, they won't allow them to build independence and rely less on US provided security.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#368

Post by UberFly »

throw84949499 wrote: post #360
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Why would China even invide Taiwan? It would destroy "their" infrastructure and kill "their" people! There are much better ways to remove US influence from Taiwan! They can just put sanctions or even blockade Taiwan. And if China puts sanctions on US, and dumps its USD reserves, it can destroy US economy. US is crazy about proxies fighting their "enemies" for them. This type of thinking needs to stop! This is not col…

Why would China even invade Taiwan? For the same reasons they invaded and took Hong Kong. Because they have their own manifest destiny to reunify their country into what it once was. They don't care about the collateral damage to achieve this in the end.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#369

Post by UberFly »

_t9ow wrote: post #347
wiseowise wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. After 3 years of war they will sell it out to China. Taiwan started the war in the first place, actually.

> After 3 years With the current administration, perhaps 3 days?

Just a reminder that the current administration just removed the "we don't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation" from the official state policy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#370

Post by JumpCrisscross »

DeathArrow wrote: post #346
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan isn't even remotely close to self sufficient on many critical things including food and energy. This means they are extremely vulnerable to a naval blockade As is China in respect of energy. Beijing knows this. But the timeline on which they become energy self sufficient unfortunately meshes poorly with their military demographics. Of course now, they have former American allies from which to recruit manpowe…

>As is China in respect of energy. Aren't they buying cheap oil and natural gas from Russia?

> Aren't they buying cheap oil and natural gas from Russia?

Most of China’s energy arrives by sea. That makes them intensely vulnerable to blockade.

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