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Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

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Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#361

Post by teractiveodular »

kilroy123 wrote: post #334
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a lot going for it. The right investments in green energy and EVs is maturing now, allowing them dominate basically 75% of the world market for energy production and vehicles (without local competitors). They are also making investments right now in AI and robotics that are already beginning to pay off. The US as a market doesn’t mean much to China anymore, and Trump’s aggressive treatment of enemies and al…

I don't buy this. They badly want into the US market for their EVs. As well as their solar panels.

They wouldn't mind it, but Chinese EV & solar panel production volumes are already completely mind-boggling, they'll keep doing just fine without the US.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#362

Post by Foobar8568 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #242
vaccineai wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

China has a lot going for it. The right investments in green energy and EVs is maturing now, allowing them dominate basically 75% of the world market for energy production and vehicles (without local competitors). They are also making investments right now in AI and robotics that are already beginning to pay off. The US as a market doesn’t mean much to China anymore, and Trump’s aggressive treatment of enemies and al…

From a French point of view, I feel that Trump is going for self-reliance of the "USA", Panama, Greenland, Canada would lower greatly in external reliance and control better several trading routes.

Add that https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-elon-musk-grandfathe... and you see who is actually leading today USA.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#363

Post by bayindirh »

openplatypus wrote: post #358
bayindirh wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> complete with nets so they don't leap to their deaths. These nets are everywhere here. In the our other building's (which is an R&D facility where nobody is a modern day slave by your definition) stair well, construction sites, bridges, etc. I saw it all over Europe in buildings, bridges, etc.

Which Europe? I live in Germany and travel frequently around most of the Western, Central and Northern Europe. No nets.

I think I saw one in Freiburg, in University. I vaguely remember seeing some nets in The Netherlands. Probably inside Science Park buildings.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#364

Post by Foobar8568 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #116
hpone91 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It says until further notice. So unlikely to be Lunar New Year since it just ended today.

CNY goes for two weeks and just started last Tuesday night. The golden week holiday however just ended. Most people take extra time off so things are usually slow until the whole holiday is over.

In HK it's just a few days...

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#365

Post by inetknght »

Evil_Saint wrote: post #359
ben_w wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You left out the part about dormitories full of modern-day slaves, complete with nets so they don't leap to their deaths. Generally this is frowned upon in the West. Frowned upon, but you (the US) do have them: https://www.goldengate.org/district/district-projects/suicid... Seen them here in Germany, too: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vDSL4HeQrLLfYU2m7

That's not the same at all.

That's funny because I've thought it is the same for years and I'm happy to see someone else post a comment about it instead.

Perhaps you'd like to elaborate on why you think it's not the same.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#366

Post by dwaite »

catherd wrote: post #307
reaperman wrote: post #72

This is going to utterly fuck so many R&D projects at my company. We actually do large-scale manufacturing of industrial valves in the USA. But a lot of our prototyping involves working with Chinese suppliers and getting small batches of samples / prototypes / revisions sent in packages on airplanes. I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages…

Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight likely aren't routed through USPS at all unless it's the last leg of a consolidated shipment that's broken apart once it reaches the US. Those would be using some other carrier to get them from China to the US and then USPS only inside the US. USPS all the way f…

This USPS announcement is most likely a reaction to just how far backlogged US customs is about to get. DHL won't save you.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#367

Post by ZaoLahma »

stonogo wrote: post #268
VagabundoP wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be cheaper to temp relocate a bunch of teams to the EU at this point, than completely stop all R&D.

The only team you need in the EU is someone to peel shipping labels off inbound parcels and ship them on to the US.

That's a fantastic way to get the attention of and end up getting the stick from the US, so I think (hope) the EU would have mechanisms in place to quickly shut down tariff evasion strategies that would involve just relabeling goods.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#368

Post by nottorp »

catherd wrote: post #307
reaperman wrote: post #72

This is going to utterly fuck so many R&D projects at my company. We actually do large-scale manufacturing of industrial valves in the USA. But a lot of our prototyping involves working with Chinese suppliers and getting small batches of samples / prototypes / revisions sent in packages on airplanes. I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages…

Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight likely aren't routed through USPS at all unless it's the last leg of a consolidated shipment that's broken apart once it reaches the US. Those would be using some other carrier to get them from China to the US and then USPS only inside the US. USPS all the way f…

> Paying ~$30 for express shipping through DHL (plus whatever the new tariffs end up being) will still get you those parts in 3-5 days to most major shipping hubs in the US, your suppliers will just need to start filing the export paperwork correctly.

In my european experience, DHL is anything but fast when customs are involved. And I doubt they have the manpower to handle it for the new US rules.

> These changes will likely have bigger impacts on cheap off the shelf parts from e-commerce places like Temu or AliExpress, who were previously taking advantage of both the de minimis rule and inequal international rates through USPS.

Again in my european experience, the likes of Temu have solved the problem. You just order and a courier shows up with the taxes already handled. You paid Temu for them when you ordered and they paid the taxes for you at the point of entry to the EU.

Unfortunately they probably don't have a similar setup in the US, but they're likely to solve it much faster than DHL.

And of course prices will increase. Will that make them less competitive? Time will tell.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#369

Post by relistan »

catherd wrote: post #340
relistan wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d deem it extremely unlikely that US customs processing or the express carriers will be able to handle that overflow in anything like a reasonable timeframe.

Could be. The carriers do already have practice ramping up and down for Christmas and Chinese New Year so it seems plausible they could absorb significant extra volume in whatever time it would take to negotiate the leases on the extra flights they use during those times. For that matter customs processing also has experience managing the same surges. I'd believe we might have some sort of own-goal planned for custom…

Yes, they do. But my understanding is that we’re talking about almost the entire US-bound volume from China of all of Aliexpress, Temu, eBay, Amazon, and all the other retailers shipping from China. USPS carries a massive amount of load there. And almost none of that was dutied in customs because of the high de minimis value in the US.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#370

Post by LinXitoW »

likeabatterycar wrote: post #270
PeterStuer wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Because the West has to actually follow environmental and safety regulations" ... that can only exist because they can circumvent them by offshoring all their production to the East and South. If they actually wanted to comply rather than bypass said regulations they would have to curb consumption for which there would not be support.

Next you're going to tell me that the cobalt used to make batteries for the electric vehicles literally saving the environment right now in the West is being mined by enslaved children in the Congo with archaic hand tools and no PPE under inconceivable conditions.

No, I'd tell you that the cobalt for electric cars is only a tiny fraction of the total cobalt used, and that combustion engines also need a lot, AND that there's less un-ethical sources of cobalt that many manufacturers use.

But that's the nitpicker in me. The general point that our over-consumption drives like 80% of the bad things in the world still stands. The only real solution is to consume less.

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