Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith • Hacker News Board

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#361

Post by finnthehuman » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 6:54 PM UTC

copyleftdj wrote: post #201

dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

>be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of people who are here because they are generically interested in tech topics and not specifically startups. For me what hn use to be an interaction between art and tech in the theme of hackers & painters. Tech along is not so interesting IMHO unless it's in the context of art and/or humanity.

Maciej wrote "Dabblers and Blowhards" in 2005 (that was an eyeopening date to go check). Hackers and Painters was always for the fresh and easily impressionable to feel a sense of specialness.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#362

Post by fxtentacle » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 6:54 PM UTC

dsugarman wrote: post #218

dcminter wrote: post #10

> What's changed? Largely, the make up of the audience in HN. I sincerely doubt that the hard core of people doing startups, thinking of doing a startup, or just very interested in the topic has gone away or changed attitude very much. But the profile of HN has grown. It's a miracle that it's still an interesting and curious group, but from comments I'd be astounded if there were not a far greater proportion of peopl…

Everyone is so negative, cynical, and bitter on HN now, it's really sad to me. I went through YC in 2012 and I feel like the community here is unrecognizable, the quality of discourse is so low it feels hard to participate.

I'm not cynical, but my relationship with technology has surely become adversarial.

I still remember the days when self-driving cars seemed just around the corner and inevitable. When Google was organizing the world's information and ethically pure. When I trusted software to do the right thing.

But nowadays... Good luck finding any trustworthy megacorp. We've commoditized trust for profits (e.g. from Couchsurfing to AirBnB) and the result is that people became less trusting.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#363

Post by Traubenfuchs » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 6:59 PM UTC

troupo wrote: post #83

Traubenfuchs wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible. Until then, naturally, it's all paper money. A bet. Maybe an investment, of your time and effort. The majority of startups fail and the majority of startups having an IPO will not make anyone rich via stock grants. It's definitely a safer bet to find a high paying job in a stable company.

> If you join early, got plenty of stock options and the startup turns into a unicorn, those millions are totally possible That's the thing: there's literally no business idea in most startups beyond "sell to the highest bidder at 1B+ valuation". And the rest are hoping to coast on unlimited investor money. That's it. There are no business plans of, you know, building a sustainably profitable company.

For me the better question is: Why is anyone with enough money to invest in startups not just investing that money in a safe index fund or real estate instead?

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#364

Post by blindriver » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

georgemcbay wrote: post #300

blindriver wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was the ~15th engineer at a YC startup that had a very big exit. Over 4 years I made less than $80k total (20k/yr) from my options while the founders made high 8 figures. Had I joined BigTech I would have made over $1 M just from stock and I would have worked less. Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich but nowadays YC teaches their founders to kee…

> Back during the dot com days, everyone from the secretaries to the chefs to the founders were getting rich As someone who is old enough to have been working in tech since the 1990s... not really. I mean, it happened on occasion but it wasn't actually a common occurrence even during the heyday of large dot com exits. The idea of this was massively propped up by overhyping the vanishingly few cases in which it did ha…

I also worked during the dotcom days and worked for a recently ipo'ed startup. Everyone made money from it, so this is from experience. One of the assistants made enough money to buy a vineyard and this was from a company that IPO'ed for less than $1 billion.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#365

Post by fxtentacle » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

jschveibinz wrote: post #261

Here are a few anecdotes from the U.S. that can hopefully add substance to this conversation: 1) I am an investor in startups, and I have slowed my investments to a trickle since the beginning of Covid. I have noted that this has been generally true of other investors like myself. 2) There are still tons of problems to solve through technology applications; but there needs to be a moat between your solution and what…

My bet would be on material science to become the new software. Thanks to 3D printing, we now have lots of ideas of things that people would like to make. So the demand is there and quantifiable. But we lack the technology to produce it.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#366

Post by mhh__ » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:15 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #5

IMHO building startup became a status symbol which means that the payment in respect for making a courageous adventure is lost and commoditized. We are slowly seeing the same for academia. Point 2 resonates with me. Risk adjusted it is very unlikely that one will make a reasonable salary doing startups. So it is conviction and heart that needs to drive it. For me, the main issue is that every time I voice the idea ab…

A big trend in science now, at least for those less fortunate researchers, is basically only being allowed to do research that you already know the outcome of.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

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Post by snowstormsun » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:16 PM UTC

zer0tonin wrote: post #305

For me, I think one of the biggest issue is how incredibly boring the startup landscape has become. Who here is seriously passionate about doing SaaS #9001 which will contain a chatgpt wrapper and yet another series of buzzword to attract VC funding instead of actual users? There's a ton of big, real problems with our world at the moment, and I don't see the startup scene attacking any of those.

Very well said.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#368

Post by edanm » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:35 PM UTC

yason wrote: post #43

I'd say starting a company to make something people want in order to sell it for money is still relevant. It's just that you're looking at working quietly, humbly, but perseverantly for the next 25 years, slowly growing the business and balancing the risks and opportunities along the way. You won't be looking for an "exit" because you want to take care of the company you built. That's a very different story from what…

> That never was sustainable, I think

What makes you think that? Still plenty of startups being founded, many achieving success. It's long odds, of course, but what exactly is "unsustainable" about this? (And unsustainable to whom, exactly?)

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#369

Post by edanm » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:38 PM UTC

I think the second point in the article is the main reason - compensation from Big Tech changes the financial equation considerably. There's still a lot of upsides to starting a startup (as well as plenty of downsides), but the financial upsides are lessened compared to working in tech, and the opportunity cost of giving up a Big Tech salary is huge.

Re: Startup Winter: Hacker News Lost Its Faith

#370

Post by bluGill » Tue, Jan 21, 2025, 7:42 PM UTC

kridsdale1 wrote: post #320

bluGill wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the time the wage is not up for negotiation. Forget about it, you can't change it. HR and your future boss are tied up with company policy which says you start at X and you can't change that. Spend your time instead on getting more vacation from the start. If instead you ask for 25 days of vacation per year instead of the default 10 you have a deal (or maybe they bring you down to 20 days). You can't get 50 d…

I haven’t experienced what you claim. I’ve succeeded to the 99th percentile with wage negotiation the last 2 times I job hopped (both FAANG). The trick is you really do need to do the work to collect a poker-hand of competing offers with which to have leverage. You can then say “I won’t take your offer unless you make it (top of band, L+1, remote)” etc. This has not backfired on me. It just takes 8 times more effort…

Every company is different. Congratulations for pulling that off. It won't work everywhere though. The real trick is figuring out where they can negotiate - there is always something.