Fraud and deception are common. Just consider Tesla for instance.
It seems to me that you have no idea what the word fraud means. It’s a legal term. It has nothing to do with whether you like or agree with something.
I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
361–370 of 430 posts
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#362I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…
> The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. In business, politics, everything. It almost seems like everyone is quietly agreeing that "if we pretend the pesky truth doesn't exist for long enough, we can literally change reality to be what we want". I feel like I'm going crazy. There's no way that's how things can work for long, right?
By all accounts it was like this at the end in the USSR too: infinite nepotism, no accountability, crashing standard of living near the median, deaths of despair attached to crazy levels of dangerous substance use.
This is what happens when bad people capture the levers of power.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#363Did he... link the wrong URL at the end of the post? I thought for sure it was going to be some sort of heartfelt speech, or motivational message, or something. But it's an instrumental DJ set which seems totally out of left field
It's funny, because your comment made me go back and click the link. If it was some motivational speech, I wasn't interested (that's why I didn't click initially). But I actually listen to instrumental DJ sets and Cercle is one of my favorite YouTube channels. So thanks! :)
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#364Earlier quoted context omitted.
Right, but the price of the put is much less than the price of the stock, and the price of the put is the denominator. Right now, Walmart is at $91.34, and you can buy a put at $88 expiring on 24th January for $0.18 [1]. If you buy one, and the stock goes to zero by then, you spent $0.18 and gained $88, a 488x return. January 2026 at $86.67 is $5.35 - a mere 16x return. [1] https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stoc…
You'd spend $0.18 per share, yes, but the option's price is $18, not $0.18. So your return would be roughly 4.1x, not 488x. Remember options contracts are counted in hundreds, so $0.18 is the price per share, not per contract.
If you're going to work it out per options contract, then you spend $18, and get to sell 100 shares at $88. 100 * $88 / $18 is still 488x.
(This number is large because Walmart is not going to go bust in the next few days! It serves to illustrate the arithmetic, but maybe it's not the most realistic example.)
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#365Wow, this made me really emotional. And even though I definitely did not expect a chill Bali DJ set as the motivational link, it also resonated with me in some way. I can't think of a more honorable way to move through life. I liken the act of closing shop at this point for Hindenburg to the legend I know of Cincinnatus, the Roman emperor who did the job of emperoring and went back to his fields when it was done. It…
Being pedantic here, but Cincinnatus was never Emperor. He was, though, twice given "Dictator" powers by the Roman Senate during the Republican era.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#366The impact this organization had was incredible. I doubt they would have been able to do this work if they were based out of any other country, which makes me wonder how the US legal system, regulators and law enforcement in general are not extremely corrupt. What reasons or incentives make the system work in the US? Of course there are many instances of corruption and injustice, but in comparison to almost any other…
> I doubt they would have been able to do this work if they were based out of any other country Here's a British one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viceroy_Research There were a _number_ of British and German ones involved in the whole Wirecard mess. Hindenburg's probably the world's most prominent, but there's nothing about the model that inherently requires being in the US.
And those German short-sellers (and to a lesser extent their British counterparts) were aggressively bullied by their local government market regulators
https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/germanys-long-lon...
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#367"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…
> In May 2022, Hindenburg took a short position in Twitter, Inc. following the announcement of its acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk. After Musk's attempted termination of the deal, Hindenburg took a significant long position on Twitter, betting against Musk on the acquisition to close. Something about that individual coming to power along with the other oligarchs? The coming political climate looks to be one where…
The statement by Nate Anderson does not contain any explicit or implicit connection to Elon Musk, Donald Trump, or the political climate. It's disappointing that you believe "money in power" is a new phenomenon uniquely exemplified by Elon's burgeoning interest in politics. Cuomo's monologue during the DNC about the falseness of "grass roots political power" in the United States is right on the mark. Biden's warning about "oligarchs" was awkward and insincere.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doing nothing saves trading costs which are a major drag. The standard advice for equities investors (at least in the UK) has been to invest in tracker funds for a very long time. it is possible to beat the market. Many years ago I double my money in approx an year - but I invested heavily in I had been covering as a analyst (one of my previous careers) until immediately before. I am more cautious now.
Trading fees are at or near zero in the US now unless you mean capital gains.
The explicit fees are near zero, but if you watch your trade you always get an adverse price.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#369I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…
> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Without insider knowlege market investments are pure gamble. The best you can do is to bet randomly. Once you deviate from random bets because you are mistakenly think you know something then your investments will underperform.
That isn't guaranteed, because if so you can always do the opposite of what you think and you will overperform. Even if you think you know something, you are, at best, still being random. Anything perceived decrease in return from taking actions is itself just chance (and confirmation bias), because otherwise you could inverse it.
Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research
#370Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Rebalancing is just selling the high performers and buying the low performers. Guaranteeing mediocre performance. Not my cup a tea.
Mediocre performance is better than your top performers dropping 30% or 60%. I can point couple companies that suddenly dropped from $90 a share to below $10 and then they never got up “Just eat takeaway.com” between 2018 and 2022 it was looking like they would go to the moon. In 2022 you can see hell of a drop and it is not going back. If you would sell parts of it before 2022 you would lock at least some of the gai…
Oh, I've had my portfolio drop 90% once. And drop 50% at other times, and 30% drops.
It's not easy to suppress the panic.