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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#361

Post by prng2021 »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #210

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember the run up to the dot-com bust. I was too much of a bumpkin at the time to even know how I would trade stocks — but I listened to an acquaintance go on and on about how much he was making on the market. At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — tha…

A market crash won’t be a silver bullet. I’ve known several gambling addicts and that’s not how addiction works. They don’t just stop because they lose a bunch of money. They always hold out hope they’ll be able to win everything back “next time”.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#362

Post by xcv123 »

jarsin wrote: post #337
JKCalhoun wrote: post #210

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember the run up to the dot-com bust. I was too much of a bumpkin at the time to even know how I would trade stocks — but I listened to an acquaintance go on and on about how much he was making on the market. At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — tha…

The SPY and QQQ charts zoomed out are starting to look like the biggest parabola of all time in markets. 1999 is just a blip on this monster. Seeing all kinds of warning signs from family members who never traded or got into crypto until just this past 6 months.

Change the chart to logarithmic scaling. You need to use log scaling for long term stock market charts

The dotcom crash was huge in terms of the percentage drop

Nasdaq crashed 84%.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xm2zypvg/

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#363

Post by speakfreely »

guelo wrote: post #331
portaouflop wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Must be nice if politics is just good and bad guys for you. It should give you some pause that a 10 yo has the same level of understanding of global politics.

10 year olds can figure out that killing children for 14 months is evil . That everyone can't see that is the power of propaganda.

I suspect most parents would be prepared to risk the lives of strangers' children if it stopped their own from being killed.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#364

Post by usefulcat »

CocaKoala wrote: post #320
mordymoop wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that I have been seeing some version of the “crash imminent, sell everything” thesis for my entire life. Almost nobody who “saw the crash coming” in the case of the dotcom bubble, or covid, or the subprime crisis made any money, because almost nobody gets the timing or magnitude of the crash right. You can find YouTube channels that have been warning people that a crash is imminent for the last two yea…

I remember at one point a couple years ago, I saw a thread on the Bogleheads forum where people could basically call their shot on market crashes; they would post and timestamp when they exited the market and when they re-entered, so that people could go and calculate if the timing was correct or if they lost money by missing out on market growth. I might not have the dates correct, but I remember the general strokes…

> He buys back in at what ended up being the absolute nadir of the market in like april 2020 or something. The rare success story of timing the market, you love to see it.

The stock market usually goes down faster than it goes up, which makes it slightly easier (well, less difficult anyway) to time the bottoms than to time the tops.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#365

Post by growse »

mrguyorama wrote: post #339
hipadev23 wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I don't know how you preserve much-needed anonymity, while also binding humans to their personas and holding them accountable for their actions.

Why do you believe anonymity is "much-needed"? Human society was built for tens of thousands of years on "stay away from Ben because he has a bad habit of not paying back what you loan him" Anonymity is new and probably not something the human brain, which isn't meant to handle more than a few hundred familiar faces, can manage reasonably. If you want anonymity 200 years ago, you had to print your own pamphlets and h…

The need for anonymity is in the face of enormously concentrated organised mass surveillance and power.

So, yes, it's relatively new. But it's not the only thing that's new.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#366

Post by [deleted] »

neilv wrote: post #340
JKCalhoun wrote: post #210

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember the run up to the dot-com bust. I was too much of a bumpkin at the time to even know how I would trade stocks — but I listened to an acquaintance go on and on about how much he was making on the market. At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — tha…

> The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. Someone said something like, Everyone thinks they're a genius, when the market only goes up. Although, one thing different now is the heavy throughout-the-day manipulation of retail investors, effectively making strong social groups and identities around it. That wasn't a thing when, say, ETrade started, and lots of people dabbled, and found it was hard…

[deleted]

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#367

Post by cj »

mordymoop wrote: post #297
JKCalhoun wrote: post #210

> They expect the problem to worsen. The stock market has climbed 23% this year... The problem will resolve itself if (when?) the market crashes. I remember the run up to the dot-com bust. I was too much of a bumpkin at the time to even know how I would trade stocks — but I listened to an acquaintance go on and on about how much he was making on the market. At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — tha…

The problem is that I have been seeing some version of the “crash imminent, sell everything” thesis for my entire life. Almost nobody who “saw the crash coming” in the case of the dotcom bubble, or covid, or the subprime crisis made any money, because almost nobody gets the timing or magnitude of the crash right. You can find YouTube channels that have been warning people that a crash is imminent for the last two yea…

Agreed this sort of advice is standard - but many people don’t follow it because it’s boring.

One way to make this sort of advice “not boring” is to apply the advice to 90% of your net worth (or cash flow), but then give yourself permission to “gamble” with the other 10%.

For me, that has fulfilled my personal interest in playing around in the markets for fun while still building/growing a traditional “safe” portfolio at the same time.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#368

Post by mbrumlow »

cj wrote: post #316
kaashif wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about individual health. Regardless of what specifically makes a society healthy, a necessary condition is that it doesn't die out. A society with a 120 year life expectancy and 0 birth rate isn't healthy. A society with 20 life expectancy and 6 birth rate is unhealthy but for different reasons.

It’s pretty easy to find high birth rate countries with low life expectancy. While it’s much more difficult to find countries with high life expectancy with low birth rates (assuming we define “low” as any birth rate lower than necessary for the society to not die out) I agree with you the 2 need to be balanced, but I assume any society with high life expectancy would also have a sustainable birth rate.

Are Japan and Korea not both high life expectancy but low birth rate. Along with a by other developed countries birth rates dropping while life expectancy is increasing?

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#369

Post by ToucanLoucan »

portaouflop wrote: post #314
guelo wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don't have decades of built up propaganda it's pretty easy to see that Israel is the bad guy. The condescending "it's complicated" line is part of the propaganda telling you that you're not allowed to come to the obvious conclusion for yourself. My 10 year has figured out that Russia is the bad guy in Ukraine and that Israel is the bad guy in Gaza.

Must be nice if politics is just good and bad guys for you. It should give you some pause that a 10 yo has the same level of understanding of global politics.

> Must be nice if politics is just good and bad guys for you.

Some politics are more complicated. Other politics are treated as more complicated because people get uncomfortable when you point out that they're casually endorsing-via-silence the mass murder of one group of people by another.

There's nothing complicated there. If you as a nation state or standing army are obliterating an opponent that can't fight back in a meaningful way, with lethal force, along an ethnic or racial line, that's a genocide. That's just what that is. The past year of desperate attempts by the West to re-frame it as something else have not been successful for exactly that reason.

And before you say it, no Palestine is not innocent. But unless I missed some pretty radical court proceedings in the UN, the punishment for their crimes as a state was not ruled to be "Israel gets to ethnically cleanse you" which is what is now happening.

> It should give you some pause that a 10 yo has the same level of understanding of global politics.

Kids aren't inherently stupid either. Kids have a lot of good questions to ask about our modern world and the fact that you don't have answers beyond "that's the way it always has been" both a) does not make that complete horseshit far more often than not, and b) does not make the question somehow lesser compared to you, irrespective of how many journey's around the sun they've taken.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#370

Post by rqtwteye »

After losing my first chunk of cash during 2000 .COM crash I became be quite contrarian. Thought real estate is way too high, thought the stock market is nuts, bitcoin is a scam. Turns out the big crash never happened and everything ket going up. Three years ago for some reason I jumped into the stock market, bought a house, bought some bitcoin. Turns out so far the gains have been life changing. If I ever get laid off,I may be able to just call it quits and retire.

I still think the whole thing doesn't make sense but it seems economic fundamentals don't work anymore. Everything is a bubble.

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