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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#361

Post by tsimionescu »

maxlin wrote: post #354
tsimionescu wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, FSD is just not doing anything that interesting. It only handles the easy scenarios, and punts to a driver for everything else, at a moment's notice. And it still constantly fails, per everyone who tries it, in even very simple situations. Look at what this article author found: that's just not something that happens with Waymo or Mercedes.

You're pretty much exactly 180 degrees in the wrong in that one. Due to the deep NN-based approach, FSD can react to the minutest of changes like seeing ahead of the car in front, or even hand signals by pedestrians to decide how to drive. Again, even mentioning Waymo here proves you don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about. Might as well compare FSD to trains, trains also "steer themselves" lol

The hardest parts of self driving are related to interacting with others on the road - other cars, pedestrians, cyclists, animals, debris etc. Waymo has mostly solved these problems, in a real environment, with only some simple limitations in top speed (and a major limitation for climate - they don't work in heavy rain, fog, snow, etc). Sure, the environment is fully mapped out, so it's not easy to scale their solution. But they've solved an extremely difficult problem extremely well, with some well defined constraints.

FSD has no defined constraints, sure. But it is FAR from solving the problems that Waymo has solved, and far from solving the problems that the CEO has promised to solve. If you hacked a Tesla to run with FSD without a driver in the car and let it roam in real traffic, even in Phoenix, it will crash within the first 100km. It's very, very far from being able to safely work without human intervention.

And NNs are inherently very noisy, so they are not a promising approach for a safety critical system. Combining that with pure camera vision, which is very limited even in animals that have literally had billions of years of training, is a fool's errand. FSD as it exists right now does not work, and will never work. Time will show this: Tesla will either give FSD up, or will switch to camera+LIDAR.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#363

Post by tsimionescu »

maxlin wrote: post #358
tsimionescu wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm looking at actual results, not the tech stack. They are the only company that is only attempting Level 2, all the others are targeting or have achieved Level 3, or above. And Tesla isn't even doing Level 2 well, from the limited data that we have (since they of course refuse to release more). Look at any video about FSD on the internet and you'll see very frequent, inexplicable errors, in common simple scenar…

A train can also run entirely automated but it is as valid a competitor to FSD as anything you have mentioned because FSD is general and works like a human. Video to inputs

Trains most certainly do not run automated, not on any long distance route anyway (there are some city trains/trams that do). And again, I'm comparing results. Waymo works autonomously quite well, even though geolocked to a city. Its going to be far easier for Waymo to take their existing mastery of traffic and extend that to less well mapped areas than it is going to be for Tesla to take their lack of mastery of any aspect of self driving tech and extend it to actually working.

What exactly do you think geolocking does to simplify the problem of self-driving so much?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#364

Post by MrSkelter »

The author makes a mistake early on “hoping” when he buys a new car there are alternatives with adaptive cruise control as “good” as Tesla. This is the problem with Musk’s hype. There are many, many better systems. Including Mercedes level-3 self driving which is far beyond anything Tesla have. Simpler systems like autopilot which perform better are in Audi’s Hondas and more. People really need to understand that Musks pitch is simply a lie and there are independent tests proving how far behind Tesla are.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#365

Post by jmpman »

jmpman wrote: post #360
jmpman wrote: post #341

I’ve been using FSD for the last 6 weeks. Paid for the monthly subscription, and running v12.3.6 It’s almost killed me once, when it was about to blow through a red light at ~70mph, while a car was about to turn left in front of me. There was no indication that it was going to stop, so I slammed on the brakes. Then, after about three weeks, it stopped tracking the lanes properly, and would drive straddling the lane d…

I just figured out what’s broken. The front facing cameras are obscured due to what appears to be glue outgassing from the glue holding the flocked material surrounding the front camera enclosure. This is the second time this has happened. The Tesla allows you to drive, and gives no warnings that it can’t resolve properly. I reported it to the NTSB before, with no resolution. Time to do it again.

The front facing cameras were fogged. Just fixed that, but it’s still driving right justified all the way into the adjacent lane. Something is broken. NTSB time.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#366

Post by ac29 »

rayiner wrote: post #248
pas wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

as GME, that trump social thing, et al. already showed it a couple of times fundamentals don't matter. Tesla is held by folks who either don't care (ETFs, institutions, hedge funds, blablabla) or Elondong lovers.

You can’t half a half trillion market cap with a fanboy stock.

Bitcoin begs to differ

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#367

Post by ac29 »

quonn wrote: post #179
xyst wrote: post #146

Self driving cars in general are a useless technology demo. Not just TSLA (although more so because of the repeated false claims). It’s a way for the car industry to fight against their extinction. In the beginning the argument was: “it’s not the cars killing people, it’s the damn ‘jay walkers’ (term invented by auto industry, btw). Get those people off the road and cram them into the sides of the streets so my fat c…

Nonsense. I will only reply to your last paragraph: - EVs need to hardly ever break, so no brake dust and certainly not more than for ICEs. - Tires only wear faster if you accelerate like crazy. - Batteries likely last 20 years and afterwards another 30 years as energy storage devices. And then they can be recycled with 95% of the materials being reused. - And pollution is not the same as CO2 emissions which is what…

>Batteries likely last 20 years and afterwards another 30 years as energy storage devices.

Out of curiosity, do you have a citation for 20 year old EV batteries being able to be repurposed for another 30 years? Assuming they are used for gridscale storage, 30 years could very easily be 10,000 charge-discharge cycles (thats slightly less than one per day).

LFP batteries have a much longer lifespan that lithium ion, but in a brief search I cant find any claim that they will last a half century. For example, this article [1] says LFP batteries have a "calendar aging" rate (capacity loss independent of active charge cycling loss) of "ca. 0.2 percentage points of capacity fade per month at 25°C and to ca. 0.5 percentage points per month at 50°C". So, in ideal conditions a battery that is kept in storage would take 20 years to reach half capacity and 40 years to reach zero capacity. Presumably daily charge-discharge cycles would reduce that lifespan significantly.

[1] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1149/2.0411609jes

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#368

Post by tverbeure »

MrSkelter wrote: post #364

The author makes a mistake early on “hoping” when he buys a new car there are alternatives with adaptive cruise control as “good” as Tesla. This is the problem with Musk’s hype. There are many, many better systems. Including Mercedes level-3 self driving which is far beyond anything Tesla have. Simpler systems like autopilot which perform better are in Audi’s Hondas and more. People really need to understand that Mus…

Author here: I’m well aware that there are similar autopilot systems. There’s a reason why my requirements list has “extensive charger network” before “autopilot just as good”.

(Also, the autopilot of my wife’s Audi is a huge regression compared to the one of my Tesla. Though that’s the 2019 model, so who knows…)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#369

Post by tverbeure »

throwaway7ahgb wrote: post #271
penjelly wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

author pointed out that either way drivers behind him would've been very confused, so even if it DID correct, it still made mistakes that disrupted the flow of traffic.

So is FSD by the author and others being compared to perfect? Or is it compared to the worst drivers, average or best drivers? If we wait for perfect it will never happen.

I expected it not make the most trivial mistakes. Literally no one would confuse that first exit lane to be the right one.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#370

Post by tverbeure »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #306
drcode wrote: post #131

I have FSD v12 and for my drives, in my part of the country, I have to do a mild safety intervention maybe once a week (like, getting closer to another car than I'm comfortable with) sorry other people are having different experiences, but FSD is a significant quality of life improvement for me. Nothing is nicer than getting in the car after a long day and letting it chauffeur me home. (yes I still pay attention)

Most people criticizing FSD here have never tried it, never even driven a Tesla. It's just pure derangement. The latest FSD is pretty damn good.

Except for the cases where it takes the wrong exit, the wrong lane, starts oscillating, and ignores a don’t-turn-on-right.

And that was in the first 3 of 3 tests.

As the author of this blog post: I drive a Tesla, I tried FSD, and it failed miserably in near perfect conditions. How exactly is that derangement?

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