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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#361

Post by danans »

ceejayoz wrote: post #323
danans wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't, but governments can.

Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do. There's no magic wand that gives you a heat pump for every European household who'd need one in any reasonably short period of time. Even something comparitively simple like toilet paper took months at the start of the pandemic.

> Governments have to wait for manufacturing capacity to spin up just like the rest of us do.

Yes, but government can provide a demand signal far more clearly and immediately than the market can. That's what the Defense Production Act is for in the US.

The lack of federal tax incentives for air source heat pumps is also an an issue. Frustratingly there is a 30% credit for ground source heat pumps, which are far less scalable because they require an expensive trench or well.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#362

Post by rmbyrro »

_ph_ wrote: post #284
rmbyrro wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts. I also hate to say, but, at that particular moment, the man was right. This is why political extremism is bad. Nobody in Europe listened to him. Had him be more respectful, polite and balanced in his communication, maybe he could have convinced Germany to anticipate what they're scrambling to do no…

A lot of bad country leaders have been right at times. I am trying to resist to invoke Godwin's law here...

No idea why you're bringing up Godwin's law here, to be honest...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#363

Post by Melting_Harps »

dragonwriter wrote: post #318
mythrwy wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's unadulterated bullshit and I think both of us know it. "mass rape, mass murder etc". Look, I don't think the Russians are innocent in this at all. Obviously they have economic incentive and don't mind killing some folks to get what they are after. They don't want to kill everyone though or they would act very differently. It's not genocide. Very simple. Even by a stretch of the word to include removing Nazi el…

> It's not genocide. Very simple. It is genocide, very simple; heck, Putin is pretty up front about the intent to destroy the Ukrainian people as a people , because he views the existence of that identity distinct from Russia as anathema. And even without Putin’s statements the piles of evidence from the acts on the ground admit no other explanation.

> And even without Putin’s statements the piles of evidence from the acts on the ground admit no other explanation.

Bucha, Irpin, Kharkiv, Mariupol etc... It's all there, anyone denying this is either utterly blind or a Russian apologist, these are all war crimes. And Putin's (convoluted) rhetoric has arrived at a single point: that Ukraine are not their own people or culture.

The latest Russian missile attack was on a civilian shopping center FFS! This isn't war conventional between militaries, this is terrorism on civilians when Ukraine attacks on Russian munition depots in Ukrainian territory or some other military target is successful.

Russia has bombed Lviv and Kyiv as well when similar successful military strikes took place with civilian casualties.

The truth is that this is really looking less like a proxy war and more like a hyper-localized World War, if Iran is really supplying UAVs to Russia and China and India is buying their energy to bypass sanctions than the BRICS alliance looks like the geo-political strata is shaking out; one cannot help but feel that if this isn't fought qnd won then Taiwan will be the CCPs next move as it is starting to crack under it's own myopic weight as the Zero COVID policy is taking it's toll and making internal civil war inevitable as the bank freezes/bail-ins are happening there.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#364

Post by kennywinker »

cpursley wrote: post #258
kennywinker wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the sanctions are obviously backfiring on Europeans and not hurting the Russians by any objective measure I’m not sure that’s an accurate summary of the situation. > "If the goal is a quick and complete collapse of the Russian economy, then no, sanctions are not working because the Russian economy is still functioning. But if the goal is to weaken Russia economically over time, then sanctions are 100% working." htt…

Except that it's not. The ruble is the best performing currency in 2022, inflation is not as bad as predicted, shelves in Russia are full and Russian state tax revenue is way up (they raised pensions and mimimum wage by 10%). Sure, there is some pain - but there's this little thing called import substitution. The Chinese and Turks are happy to oblige (machines, vehicles). The sanctions are just making Russia more ind…

You can contradict the opinions of experts all you want, but i’m still going to believe “Russian political scientist Ilya Matveev” over hacker news commenter cpursley 11 times out of ten.

I agree it’s not working as well as we’d all hoped, but to say it’s strengthening russia is not in alignment with what all expert opinions i’ve heard so far are saying.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#365

Post by moistly »

mythrwy wrote: post #198
excieve wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this. It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

I suggest that instead of using your throwaway account to post objectively untrue bullshit, you instead not post at all. HN does not benefit when you pull stupid stunts like this. Be a better person.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#366

Post by bilsbie »

londons_explore wrote: post #63
nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Fun fact: Nearly all gas turbine power stations can also run on oil. Oil is usually a backup method in case the gas supply is disrupted, but it is possible for them to run on oil continuously. The exact oil type required differs, but some can use Diesel/Petrol/Kerosene/ethanol/hydrogen or sometimes even unrefined crude oil. With gas prices so high, many are already running on oil, and that's part of the reason Diesel…

I wonder if they could run on wood gas.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#367

Post by HKH2 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #224
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's not just Ukraine - what about Sri Lanka which is collapsing by the minute? I do care about the people, but if I am completely honest, I could care less about the government. If the current government can fend off Russia, great, but maybe (I don't know for sure) it would be better for the people for some sort of diplomatic solution to be created (perhaps surrender a part of Ukraine but allow anyone interested…

Sri Lanka hasn't spent the last decade invading multiple nations. Ukraine's not facing internal strife, they're facing an external threat.

When Ukrainians shell civilian targets in the Donbas, is that not internal strife?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#368

Post by wsc981 »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #269
bonzini wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Russia had poisoned a West-friendly candidate even before and generally meddled with Ukrainian elections. Let's not make this look like it was started by Ukraine...

Democracy in Ukraine is fucked, with many politicians being backed by outside powers and very little representations. There have been tons of parliamentary MPs expelled in the last 6 months and complete bans on opposition parties. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/ukraine-suspen...

Very much true. In this leaked audio-fragment Biden is quite literally threatening Poroshenko (a very corrupt individual himself and previous Ukraine president) because he doesn’t want Trump looking into situation in Ukraine during Trumps presidency.

https://twitter.com/JustFollowingP3/status/15472268766320721...

Maybe Joe Biden doesn’t want Trump to know about Hunter Biden’s business dealings there, but I can only guess …

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#369

Post by HKH2 »

_ph_ wrote: post #275
mythrwy wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different. Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

The Russians pretty much killed a lot of the population of the occupied territories, which hadn't fled in time. A lot of the rest has been abducted to Russia, possibly Siberia.

In the Donbas? Proof?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#370

Post by ceejayoz »

HKH2 wrote: post #367
ceejayoz wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sri Lanka hasn't spent the last decade invading multiple nations. Ukraine's not facing internal strife, they're facing an external threat.

When Ukrainians shell civilian targets in the Donbas, is that not internal strife?

I'm not inclined to see Russian-backed separatist movements as entirely "internal".
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