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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#361

Post by chinathrow »

nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

> Almost all of the commercially available weapons systems, ammunition, and body armor that we could find was already headed to Ukraine.

Except fighters and drones.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#362

Post by keewee7 »

dzikimarian wrote: post #315
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Ukraine aims at short-term luring them into cities (e.g. preventing humanitarian corridors I'm living relatively close to Ukrainian border, and helped moving Ukrainians further into the country. That's really weird not single one mentioned, that he has issues leaving due to other Ukrainians. Actually exact opposite. Even weirder multiple people are parroting this today on HN.

>Even weirder multiple people are parroting this today on HN.

HN is read by many influential Silicon Valley people. It's definitely the target of Russian psyops.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#363

Post by piva00 »

thiagoharry wrote: post #343
guelo wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the Russian propaganda. The Ukrainian propaganda says the Russians are the ones preventing people from leaving.

Using civilians as shield makes more sense for defenders, not for attackers. Civilians makes harder to shell and bomb places. The exception is if attackers force civilians to march in front of their troops, which is not the case apparently.

Russia mined the path they themselves had designated as a humanitarian corridor before. To target civilians. This is reported from Mariupol.

Please, don't come with conjectures about Ukrainians using civilians as a meat shield, this is either utterly bollocks or you need a pretty convincing source for that statement.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#364

Post by dTal »

manicdee wrote: post #355
thiagoharry wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using civilians as shield makes more sense for defenders, not for attackers. Civilians makes harder to shell and bomb places. The exception is if attackers force civilians to march in front of their troops, which is not the case apparently.

The (reports are that) Russians are using civilians for target practise and hostages, not human shields.

Reports? There's video all over the internet. Yesterday I saw a video of a solitary civilian car being lit up by machine gun fire before taking a couple shells. I'm told there were accompanying photos of a dead couple in their 80s, which I didn't look at because I want to sleep at night.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#365

Post by dTal »

thiagoharry wrote: post #343
guelo wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the Russian propaganda. The Ukrainian propaganda says the Russians are the ones preventing people from leaving.

Using civilians as shield makes more sense for defenders, not for attackers. Civilians makes harder to shell and bomb places. The exception is if attackers force civilians to march in front of their troops, which is not the case apparently.

>Civilians makes harder to shell and bomb places

Not if you're Russian.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#366

Post by dTal »

pmoriarty wrote: post #272
cbdumas wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think you would feel about that if you lived in Lithuania?

What price is preventing WW3 worth? I would say any price, as after WW3 civilization as we know it, if not all of humanity will perish. It is WW3 that we are edging towards in this war over NATO membership.

If the world demonstrates that possession of nuclear weapons is sufficient to ensure safety even while committing indefensible wars of conquest and aggression, then WW3 becomes more likely, not less. Our response to unacceptable behavior by nation-states should be swift and painful.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#367

Post by euroderf »

axiosgunnar wrote: post #300
kspacewalk2 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Ukrainian whose relatives are being bombed and whose friends are currently enlisted - I sure hope they won't consider that at all. The only actions performed outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine should be in aid of stopping the invasion of Ukraine. Bombing troops and launch sites - yes. Attacking Russian servicemen wherever they can be reached - yes. Occupying even an inch of Russia - hell n…

> and it won't end ASAP if Russians suddenly have a non-absurd reason to defend their land. This is an important point. This is why we should keep reiterating to the Russian people that the sanctions are not to spite them and will be revoked immediately if Putin is gone.

... and hostilities cease.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#368

Post by euroderf »

pmoriarty wrote: post #263
blaser-waffle wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye. Attackers need 3-to-1 to overpower defenders, unless you've got some serious force-multipliers -- or so goes the thinking. UA forces are doing a good job holding out and fighting defensively, but a genuine attack will require serious concentrations of troops and equipment. Outside of local counterattacks, or maybe special forces raids (blow up rail lines, etc), large scale assaults probably aren't feasible. You…

Ukraine attacking Russia would be akin to Finland attacking the USSR during the Winter War. It's like a mouse attacking a cat. The mouse might get lucky and survive an attack by a cat, but it has no chance of killing the cat. Ukraine is also likely to lose all Western support if it attacked Russia. If they survive at all (which is still very doubtful), they'll likely lick their wounds and try to rebuild their shatter…

Finland did not "attack" Russia proper as such, but there were long-range ski patrols trying to cut the Murmansk railway. Also, Mannerheim kept Finnish troops out of the assault on Leningrad; the troops' remit was only to reclaim land taken in 1940. This was a wise move.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#369

Post by euroderf »

pmoriarty wrote: post #353
NoboruWataya wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision.

"Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision." If that were true, NATO would have at least have sent troops to defend Ukraine. We know that if NATO uses n…

If Russia lobs a nuclear warning shot into the North Sea (say), what is the move by US+NATO that avoids escalation and avoids abandoning Ukraine ?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#370

Post by euroderf »

frankharv wrote: post #322
AlwaysRock wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% this. I remember the USA's "Mission Accomplished" line/speech and the years of American propaganda that followed which said we were doing great things in the middle east. In reality we blew up a lot of people (soldiers and civilians), cities, and spent a shit load of money to accomplish what? I'm very skeptical of any news coming from either side currently.

I would say we toppled a dictator. It is a role we fulfilled as world police. High strength aluminum tubes speech was just an intelligence blunder.

It was a war of aggression.
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