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South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

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Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ICU beds require something like 7 specially trained nurses each to operate. Generally, availability of trained staff is the limiting factor (developed countries, at this point, generally have more ventilators etc than they can use), and lead time on making new doctors and nurses is pretty long.

While a nurse is hard to train in 2 years, you can start pulling doctors and nurses from adjacent specialties and cross train them for COVID ICU wards. If we are going to see constant new variants and new waves, then its the only choice we have.

At that point you have shortages elsewhere (and that _is_ happening to some extent in some places; hospitals are delaying routine procedures to keep the ICUs running at full capacity). It's not a great solution, especially if it goes on a long time; when you start delaying routine things for years, you start seeing serious problems.

Realistically, the only viable course is probably to vaccinate and boost as many people as humanly possible, and await better vaccines and therapeutics. Paxlovid should hopefully help when it's available in quantity.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#362
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Live like before The people I know who have been doing this have all contracted covid at this point, unless they are a recluse who doesn't go outside.

Pretty much everyone will contract covid at some point, just like common colds, influenza, etc. You can't expect to never get sick the rest of your life, can you?

I get the impression that a lot of people honestly believe this. It's comical to see. People wearing masks outside, or while they're locked in a tiny metal box with their family. I've resigned to keeping to myself and my small group of friends for the next few years. Just doing mainly outdoor and private activities, as I refuse to wear a shitty cloth mask for an indefinite period of time everywhere I go

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#363

I’ve been tanking some downvotes for the past few days for saying this. Disease spread is only exponential for a brief initial period. It is not a good mental or even general model for how disease spreads. We have two years of observational covid data that shows this to be true. Spread slows down rapidly long before reaching 100%. People hear “5x as infectious” and reason that due to the nature of exponential models,…

Can you back this up with some math?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_medicine:...

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#364
post #298
post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every virus infection can turn into a long recovery. There is no proof this is longer for Covid-19. The Epstein-Barr virus for example can make you tired for months or years. I am not saying long Covid isn't a thing, but it is not 'special' in any way. Virus infections can cause damage. Years ago I had an infection that damaged a nerve. So virus infections can leave marks. But most of the time, as with Covid, you wil…

Thanks! That's a fresh angle for me. But isn't COVID novel in the damage it poses to microvascular systems (importantly brain and lungs), compared to other viruses? E.g., https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7556303/ My understanding is that this is still different from other viruses. So if large swaths of a country get that damage from delta vs omicron vs some future weaker variant, that could have very diff…

> But isn't COVID novel in the damage it poses to microvascular systems (importantly brain and lungs), compared to other viruses?

Maybe. But I suspect actually the reverse is true. "Normal" viruses (virii?) are probably far more damaging than we have ever credited.

The fact that we can vaccinate against a cancer (cervical cancer) and the fact that asthma went down more than expected during lockdowns, suggests that we are significantly underestimating the risks that "normal" pathogens incur.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#365
post #147

Even ignoring deaths, "long COVID" is still a very real unknown: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/04/harvard-medic... As I understand, we don't know much about whether omicron has worse, same, or better outcomes in relation to long-term consequences and persistent symptoms. Pls do share if you've heard otherwise

From what I've seen there seems to be a growing body of evidence that "long COVID" is very much overblown. Eg. See this recent meta-analysis which found that when you actually add a control group, most of the symptoms disappear. A higher study quality was associated with lower prevalence of almost all symptoms. Original tweet: https://twitter.com/ShamezLadhani/status/1472622893154639876 Link to study: https://www.jou…

Those with severe respiratory symptoms (ARDS) sometimes have very long recoveries. But this is distinct from vague, self-diagnosed “long covid” in the absence of ARDS, which seems to mostly be hysteria.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#366

I’ve been tanking some downvotes for the past few days for saying this. Disease spread is only exponential for a brief initial period. It is not a good mental or even general model for how disease spreads. We have two years of observational covid data that shows this to be true. Spread slows down rapidly long before reaching 100%. People hear “5x as infectious” and reason that due to the nature of exponential models,…

You're wrongly assuming that all incidence data of COVID-19 accurately represents its real spread. E.g. it may just be that beyond a point of exponential growth testing ceases to be accurate. The German Robert Koch institute has pointed out many times that there's a hidden incidence number of all actual cases and the official one that represents everyone tested and recorded.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it was all in the name of flattening the curve to build supplies and increase healthcare capacity... right? No. The things that were about flattening the curve were about avoiding acute health system overload and increased mortality that would result from that (for all causes, not just COVID, since no ICU capacity kills people regardless of the reason they can't get into an ICU) to provide time for the development…

> The things that were about flattening the curve were about avoiding acute health system overload and increased mortality that would result from that So we agree it is about healthcare capacity. You know the best way to avoid healthcare collapse? Build more of it! You know the unethical, immoral way of avoiding healthcare collapse? Force hundreds of millions of people into this purgatory we are living in right now w…

> You know the best way to avoid healthcare collapse? Build more of it!

No, the best way is to not need it in the first place. Vaccinating people is vasty more efficient in terms of people's time and money.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#368
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many places where that's a perfectly rational decision. COVID was never going to be completely managed by states less than willing to take draconian measures, the purpose soft-lockdowns was instead to lighten the load on our healthcare system so that we didn't need to invest in field hospitals and a bunch of field-trained doctors and nurses. If we had done that instead not only would the optics be worse (no…

Can you show me an area where the covid+ college age population was a healthcare capacity burden? Further, if we're at such risk of overburdening our healthcare system, how come we have fewer heathcare workers today than we did back in 2018? How come our hospital bed capacity is shrinking instead of growing? These don't seem to be indicators that suggest we're lacking capacity in our healthcare systems. In the past t…

> In the past two years we've printed 80% of all US Dollars that have been printed in the history of the USD. We are not short on funding. Further it's not death or illness that is largely to blame for healthcare worker shortage as the only large drop in HCWs was on march 2020. Since then it's been growing, just hasn't recovered yet.

Yes, the issue there is sociopathic political maneuvering rather than an actual lack of national resources which could have been used to help our society in its time of need.

> Can you show me an area where the covid+ college age population was a healthcare capacity burden?

In the early days of covid it was irresponsible spring breakers spreading covid at destinations like Florida and then back home a week later. These days, look for areas with small purple cities surrounded by large red counties. As far as personal experiences go a couple Eastern states and the Pacific Northwest have issues with hospitals being literally over capacity. Many healthcare workers have been pushed past their breaking points and the national guard has been (and still is) providing manpower at the hospital next to my state's capitol (which is located next to a handful of universities). As other surrounding state's healthcare systems were overwhelmed with delta waves those states denied noncritical care and eventually sent patients out to my state. The collapse of the healthcare system is an issue for old people on vents and also a huge issue for college kids when their parents and professors up and die (caused a huge issue at one of the colleges here when a particularly irreplaceable professor passed away) and/or there are no hospital beds for them and there's a year plus waitlist on the mental health services they need now more than ever. College kids are a covid sink since they generally suffer only mildly from covid yet spread it rapidly due to their social habits and environment. The college kids are not the demographic wrecking the healthcare system, but they still spread covid and are affected by covid in their communities. Asking them to stay home to prevent spreading infections isn't that big a deal.

> Further, if we're at such risk of overburdening our healthcare system, how come we have fewer heathcare workers today than we did back in 2018?

Because we've pushed them to the breaking point rather than supporting them. Some died, some retired, some straight up left the field. Back in June of 2020 the cops had no shortage of riot gear and were always able to dig up more crowd gas, meanwhile doctors and nurses had to reuse contaminated PPE for months while a bunch of supply chain fuckery played itself out. How do you think that feels as a doctor, watching a shipment of PPE your state paid for and imported for you get confiscated by the feds and put into a big pile to get sold back to the highest bidder? How do you think it feels to notice how the police can suppress riots for months on end with endless tear gas and yet you get one N95 mask every two weeks even though you spend your entire day around people dying of covid?

> How come our hospital bed capacity is shrinking instead of growing?

See the above, we chose to stress existing resources instead of training, building, and deploying new ones. We don't have new hospitals, we don't have nationwide boot camps to get young civically minded people the skills needed to help support society.

> These don't seem to be indicators that suggest we're lacking capacity in our healthcare systems.

The indicators that we're lacking capacity are the shortage of replacement workers, the shortage of hospital beds during covid waves, the insane wait times to see specialists, and finally the countless secondary deaths caused by covid patients taking up resources that could've been used by someone close to me with once-treatable cancer whose care was delayed until it metastasized and who will now die a slow, painful, and what should have been preventable death in the next couple of years.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#369
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A place where it hit exponential levels with really bad results is here in NY at the beginning. We had no precautions, testing, or vaccines in place yet, and hospitals were overwhelmed. It was honestly a scary time. That was where we started "flattening the curve". Now with vaccines available if there are surges and they are not literally building hospitals on fields like they were near me that is something we have t…

We are currently sitting at at total of over 800,000 COVID deaths in the US and 1,500 COVID deaths per day, which is roughly where it’s been since September 1st. That’s approximately an additional half a million dead people per year. So yes the vaccine has already saved million of lives, but I sure hope that this is not the new normal this winter or we are going to cross 1 million deaths fairly soon.

No post body was provided.

Re: South Africa’s omicron coronavirus outbreak subsides as fast as it grew

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Viruses don't "want", anthropomorphizing COVID like media headlines do is a bit of a "language virus" in and of itself that makes global understanding of what's going on more difficult. AFAIK the virus mutates randomly, and we just see more of the more infectious and less deathly (in the short and mid-term) variants because those are the ones that spread faster and successfully among humans, but attributing even coll…

Classic HN response spending an entire paragraph to disect how I used the word "want" even though it's obvious that I meant "to achieve their goal of maximizing proliferation".

Yeah I like my HN in the Classic configuration or flavor. Can't say I'm sorry if you don't.
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