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Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

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Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#361

Post by mellavora »

habitue wrote: post #152
actually_a_dog wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That narrative makes sense, except for one thing: why wouldn't the Fed have taken their foot off the gas once inflation hit, say, 4%? Why wait until we're at 6.8%?

The other mandate of the Fed is getting full employment. Pumping money into the economy helps increase employment and there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels on that metric. They believed the inflation was transitory, and were going to wait it out. Now it's very clearly not transitory, so they are taking action

Ah, the Phillips curve. I recommend you make some charts for yourself comparing US unemployment figures with CPI inflation and see if you can spot the curve.

hint: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110404.htm

spoiler: " there is in fact no strong "tradeoff" between unemployment and general price inflation, and almost certainly not an exploitable one. The Phillips Curve is essentially a statement that lower unemployment is associated with higher inflation in real wages. The strategy of accepting higher inflation in hopes of achieving lower unemployment (which is the basis of Bernanke's policy efforts) not only drops the phrase "real wages" but reverses the direction of cause and effect. "

Also, it has clearly not been transitory for most of 2021. The "transitory" claim was backed partly by the pandemic, but relied on a 1-year lag. If, however, you used a 2-year lag (thus eliminating pandemic effects...

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#362

Post by oblio »

nickpp wrote: post #348
oblio wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're completely right. Yet in 99% of your peers, OECD countries, those regulated domains are generally more regulated, not less. And we're talking about 40 countries or so, many as diverse as the US, big enough to be comparable. How do these data point for into your narrative?

I believe that those regulated domains are generally much more expensive in all those countries, no?

You don't need to believe anything, you can check for yourself. The numbers are easily available online.

Healthcare is 2-3-4 times >.

Education is generally >.

Housing is expensive outside the US, too, a bit less so.

I feel the problem is not regulation in the US, it's that you half ass it. Americans are all about "rugged individualism" and "small government" when advanced societies are advanced because large groups of people work well together, which is the opposite of individualism. I've been in places where there is an extreme emphasis on individualism and they generally they don't look good (for example Eastern Europe does it due to a huge negative legacy of forced collectivism).

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#363

Post by pydry »

chimprich wrote: post #356
Jenk wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, as a result of what I said above. Farage and goons were unchecked. They rarely, if ever, had their bullshit fact checked by anyone that interviewed them. Dominic Cummings, an extreme libertarian[0], was in bed with various far-right (and also libertarian) people from the west, took office as the Special Advisor to the Prime Minister after riding the Brexit wave to success. A role that meant he had the power, wit…

I disagree with Cummings on a lot of issues (e.g. Brexit, the importance of international law, etc.), but I don't recognise that description of him. He's certainly not an extreme libertarian. By all accounts, during the pandemic response, he was very much in favour of government intervention. Johnson was far more laissez-faire, even to a ridiculous degree. I actually think Cummings is an interesting guy and worth lis…

He's got the mindset of a junior developer. He idolizes valley culture and wants to tear everything down and rebuild from scratch.

His ideas are kind of staid and recycled. He's smarter than Boris or most of the cabinet for sure but that isnt saying much.

Ultimately he rode a wave of mass discontent and somehow managed to fuck it up and achieve nothing while at the peak of his career when even the prime minister thought thought the sun shone out of his arse. He wasnt some genius mastermind.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#364

Post by tsimionescu »

dan-robertson wrote: post #276
Gareth321 wrote: post #250

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

> most Americans are significantly worse off since the 1970s I think this is obviously false and hurts the credibility of the rest of this comment. There are many pitfalls with measuring long-term inflation. How much did an internet connection cost in the 1970s? What about a computer? What about a smartphone? These modern technologies make peoples lives much better and were somewhere between impossible and impossibly…

> Compared to the 70s, a new car is faster, safer, more comfortable, and more fuel efficient. Similarly, most houses are bigger and better in America today.

What good does this do to someone with nowhere to live and that can't drive to work?

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#365

Post by cblconfederate »

Gareth321 wrote: post #250

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

So , the frog has been boiling slowly for the past 40 years, but this year it burnt quite a bit, right? Either way the frog has been boiled

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#366

Post by cblconfederate »

throwawaycities wrote: post #262
Gareth321 wrote: post #250

Real wages have been flat since the 1970s ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us... ). "Okay, so people's living standards are about the same since 1970?" Not even close. The problem with inflation is that its calculation is fraught with all kinds of selective weighting, bias, and politics. Take a look at the relative differences between the things which have decreased and increased in cost in…

Glad this was the top comment. Wages have not kept up with cost of living for 50 years in the US. We need to stop pretending flat wages are some modern problem of inflation, and we need to stop pretending inflation is some problem caused by the pandemic.

We also need to stop pretending that flat (i.e. depreciating) wages are normal

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#367

Post by nickpp »

oblio wrote: post #362
nickpp wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that those regulated domains are generally much more expensive in all those countries, no?

You don't need to believe anything, you can check for yourself. The numbers are easily available online. Healthcare is 2-3-4 times >. Education is generally >. Housing is expensive outside the US, too, a bit less so. I feel the problem is not regulation in the US, it's that you half ass it. Americans are all about "rugged individualism" and "small government" when advanced societies are advanced because large groups…

Nothing is "free" anywhere - it's just paid from a different pocket. From people's taxes in those "other" countries.

And the quality of state-provided healthcare is significantly worse than in US. Most people with means get private medical insurance skipping the one purchased by their taxes entirely.

Eastern Europe has two huge problem completely overshadowing their advantage from less regulation: a strong culture of corruption instilled by the years of communism and a gigantic brain drain to a west more than happy to lower their own costs (in health care as well) with the best of the cheap, highly educated Eastern workforce.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#368

Post by nickpp »

thinknboutstuff wrote: post #308
nickpp wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For example, it lets you live in a less expensive city and work remotely wherever you want. Also it allows you to learn and raise your earning potential. Finally modern transportation options less expensive than cars like e-bikes and e-scooters allow you to commute easier.

Genuinely curious, are you or were you lower class in America? Sure, some people can benefit from remote work. But remote work is also not typically minimum wage. And to access those higher wage jobs, you’ll certainly need access to capital to invest in education. Have you considered using an e-bike in the US? This could only be feasible in a minority of situations… It sounds like a techie meme of what life could be,…

I am not American. I come from zero money but lucked out with a stable family that highly valued education. They sacrificed a lot for it but they strongly believed that you can improve your lot in life through hard work and perseverance.

I share those believes and am living proof they work.

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#369

Post by oblio »

nickpp wrote: post #357
rocgf wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gonna leave out housing and education, but for healthcare, you are painfully incorrect. European countries has vastly more regulated healthcare and yet pay about an order of magnitude less for it.

You have a good point, USA healthcare has the worst kind of regulation: it did lots of damage and helped very little. But Western European countries (which you probably compare to) had an immense, unspoken advantage: an incredible supply of highly educated, unexpensive health care work force - the Eastern Europe. If you want to truly compare the healthcare of USA with Europe's please include countries like Bulgaria,…

You can't compare Eastern Europe like that, though. Romania has a GDP per capita of 1/6th the US one and it spends a pitiful percentage of its GDP on healthcare, about 5%. The US spends 18%. So the US has 18 times more money (!) for healthcare.

The other ones are even worse, Moldova's GDP per capita is 1/20th the US one. So probably 30 times more money spent by the US on healthcare.

It's like comparing a maglev train to the original steam locomotive :-)

Re: Worker pay isn’t keeping up with inflation

#370

Post by oblio »

nickpp wrote: post #367
oblio wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to believe anything, you can check for yourself. The numbers are easily available online. Healthcare is 2-3-4 times >. Education is generally >. Housing is expensive outside the US, too, a bit less so. I feel the problem is not regulation in the US, it's that you half ass it. Americans are all about "rugged individualism" and "small government" when advanced societies are advanced because large groups…

Nothing is "free" anywhere - it's just paid from a different pocket. From people's taxes in those "other" countries. And the quality of state-provided healthcare is significantly worse than in US. Most people with means get private medical insurance skipping the one purchased by their taxes entirely. Eastern Europe has two huge problem completely overshadowing their advantage from less regulation: a strong culture of…

If the tax burden is 10% more but you pay 2-3-4-10x less, your point is moot.

And countries with comparable stats like waiting times pay less overall.

Don't die on this hill, it's not worth it.

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