Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 408 posts

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#361

Post by mjevans »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #157
AlexCoventry wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean Matt Levine? If not, could you give a link, please?

Yes, Matt, and I get the newsletter so I don't know where the link is, but here is an excerpt: EDIT found the link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-21/evergr... From Matt Levine: It seems to me that what is interesting about Evergrande is not so much the magnitude of its debt problems but their variety. Evergrande owes money to Chinese banks. It owes money to foreign hedge funds, and foreign invest…

Housing should be a human right, not an investment.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#362

Post by drumhead »

randomsearch wrote: post #358
drumhead wrote: post #268

Time for China to learn all about financial restructuring. I'm thinking a Debt for equity swap, a haircut for investors and jail time for the directors. Property is a religion in Asia, there's an unshakeable belief in its robustness as an investment, this may help to shake that a bit.

Not just Asia, as we shall see when interest rates begin to rise in the west.

Yes, that is not going to be pretty

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#363

Post by Gatsky »

JamisonM wrote: post #280
pezzana wrote: post #103

> Shares of developer Fantasia Holdings (1777.HK) plunged 50% on Wednesday after it said there was no guarantee it would be able to meet its other financial obligations following a missed payment of $205.7 million due on Oct. 4. Watch the US bond market closely. Today saw a sharp selloff on the 10-year maturity, a favorite "asset" of foreign governments and companies. When those organizations get into trouble, they s…

Absolutely crazy that the top comment on this story is a "USD short squeeze" idea after 5 hours. These amounts, 200 million, 150 million USD.. this is peanuts, a fart in the wind. PROTIP: Anyone like Lyn Alden that is offering premium stock tips is by definition a fraud, if you can beat the markets you just beat the markets and Scrooge McDuck-it, you don't run a damn newsletter.

This ‘protip’ is quite wrong on many levels. Observe the behaviour of the most successful investors, and you will notice they write books, go on podcasts, talk about their strategies etc all the time. In fact you can’t shut them up. The world’s most successful investor, the biggest ‘Scrooge McDuck’ of them all, has completely public disclosures.

On the contrary, the worst advice comes from people who have no accountability or reputation to worry about.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#364

Post by urthor »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #327
Specie33 wrote: post #26

Interesting about this is that Evergrande is defaulting only on foreign held debt. Not internal debt after a ccp mandate. If their economy continues its downturn then this precedent would hold for all debt. I would really watch personal funds and investments and insure they dont hold any chinese debt as an asset.

> Interesting about this is that Evergrande is defaulting only on foreign held debt. Not internal debt after a ccp mandate. This will put a huge hamper on China's FDI: if foreign investors are given a worse place in line in case of insolvency, they will either shy away from investing at all or demand higher returns for the extra risk.

Chinese FDI inflows and outflows are actually almost equivalent in USD terms. Furthermore, China is well known for placing huge restrictions on capital outflow in its economy.

I think it's safe to say that even if every last dollar of FDI dried up, China would be more than fine with its domestic capital supply.

Furthermore, the identities of the big FDI investors are dominated by physical manufacturers investing in onshore operations. Not so much liquid global securities trading.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#365

Post by baq »

HFguy wrote: post #215
baq wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the fed are clowns. inflation data should have been priced in as anybody worth their salt (or indeed anybody doing any kind of shopping, which is everyone) knew that inflation would print above expectations, especially fed's. today's reaction was... panic of uninformed volume?

It wasn’t priced in or the market would not have moved. “everyone knew that Inflation would be above expectations” you should think about this more. Regardless, why does any of this make the feds clowns?

Because I’ve been positioned in the market for inflation since February. If I could figure that out, what were they doing?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#366

Post by sumedh »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #200
rossdavidh wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it doesn't _have_ to, ask Zimbabweans. But there are real reasons they would not want to print forever.

QE and printing are different though

What is the difference?

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#367

Post by legulere »

riggins wrote: post #175
beambot wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GP agrees with you: They're saying the currency crisis starting in Asia is USD-denominated (the international bonds in particular), which is creating a positive feedback loop when USD-RMB exchange rates spike. They're saying you might see this manifest as big movements in bond redemptions or sales as people scramble to secure USD.

I assume you mean OP? > The entire world (including the US federal government) has taken a short position on the US dollar I read this as a prediction of some type of crisis. Anyway, wrt the US Federal Government, having government debt is not that same as having a short position. For one, the US Fed govt's revenue (i.e. tax collection) is denominated in the same USD as the debt. So if USD goes up, tax collection go…

> So if USD goes up, tax collection go up

Currencies going up usually leads to a reduction of exports which subsequently leads to an economic downturn, which leads to less taxes.

Apart from that, mass sell offs of government debt leads to increasing interest rates. You can buy that off with quantitative easing but probably that has limits too.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#368

Post by dash2 »

mjevans wrote: post #361
ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Matt, and I get the newsletter so I don't know where the link is, but here is an excerpt: EDIT found the link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-21/evergr... From Matt Levine: It seems to me that what is interesting about Evergrande is not so much the magnitude of its debt problems but their variety. Evergrande owes money to Chinese banks. It owes money to foreign hedge funds, and foreign invest…

Housing should be a human right, not an investment.

The guy down the road from me got his flat as a human right. He throws his empty bottles on to the street where I have to walk my dog. The rumour is his sister is also in there and is on the game. His behaviour is making the guy who lives beneath him not sleep at night. The housing association has given up "trying to support him to change his behaviour" and is now taking him to court. By the end of the year, we all hope, he will be out of his flat. Then he will be given another flat, next to some even unluckier people, as a human right.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#369

Post by chalst »

stickfigure wrote: post #181
whimsicalism wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CCP has a long way to fall - it is much more popular among its populace than our government is and we aren't seeing substantial armed rebellion here yet. The dynamic in China is that the central government is overwhelmingly popular and the local governments are more derided.

Eh? We just voted the guys in charge out last year. No need for armed rebellion, but same results. What happens in China when public sentiment shifts is anyone's guess.

It used to be the case that the CCP was decentralised: the regions had their own parties that were not ideologically answerable to the central party. Then, popular unrest could lead to the leader losing support of the regions, which could lead to the leader being deposed. Mao liked it this way, because his popularity in the regions strengthened him against his enemies in the central party.

I don't really follow the minutia of today's politics in China, but my impression is that Xi has taken away power from the regions. If so, then this former route for change may have been blocked.

Re: Evergrande teeters on edge of default as $148M payment falls due

#370

Post by baybal2 »

loeg wrote: post #296
baybal2 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the financial press just afraid of upsetting China here? BlackRock is the biggest foreign owner of Evergrande bonds. Next there are Vanguard, and a few other equally big Western funds. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-hsbc-amon...

Source on Vanguard's ownership of Evergrande bonds? The linked article mentions some other companies (Fidelity, etc) but not Vanguard.

It was in the headlines recently. I can't recall where.
Post reply on HN