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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#361

Post by Invictus0 »

tmountain wrote: post #335
pjc50 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Congratulations, you're in the top 1%. There aren't that many people above you, but 1% of the US population is still millions, and they have an outsized influence and visibility. Property also suffers from "pigeonhole" effects; a few foreign millionaires parking their money in empty properties at the top end causes everyone to move along one.

The threshold to be in the top 1% in the US is 11M. A US citizen needs 4.4M to be in the top 1% globally. More than 8% of US families fall into the millionaire category.

In my opinion, it's more meaningful to look at top X% as a function of age bracket. Any moderately successful American born in 1950 is probably a millionaire today.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#362

Post by modo_mario »

blitzar wrote: post #322
lotsofpulp wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they US government not be able to print its way out? I assume the US will be able to as long as it has the preeminent military and a stable society and court system, with relatively high levels of trust compared to other countries. If another similar size country becomes a more stable option, then I would be worried.

Recesssions and depressions cant happen because the US can print money? Tell that to the history books. While you are there take a look at what causes an economic turndown, it tends to come on the back of massive spending, printing money, juiced growth and wars.

> wars

I'd sadly say the US has (like any empire before it) used wars and similar methods to achieve the opposite. Not always effectively but still.

Check a lot of countries in the world peg to the dollar even when it doesn't seem economically sensible. Remember when Japan in the 80's was forced to do technology transfers to the US, import minimum quotas of US tech and limit it's exports whilst adjusting their monetary policy to help out the US leading to a crash that preceded the lost decade?

It's not because they loved the US so much that they did such things.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#363

Post by modo_mario »

orthoxerox wrote: post #302
DeWilde wrote: post #276

Are houses in the US solely built using lumber/wood or do they have brick walls and concrete floors like here in Europe?

Where does insulation go in a brick single-family home?

Depends. I've seen renovations with it between the double brick wall, on the outside or the inside.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#364

Post by ClumsyPilot »

wccrawford wrote: post #314
TeMPOraL wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh, so they overcommit, accept deposits, then force some of those customers out - do they return those deposits then? If not, how is this not criminal?

Because the customers are the ones quitting, they forfeit the deposit by their contract. The developers aren't held to a timeline in the contract. They just stall forever, working on the ones willing to pay the most. If they ever ran out of better customers, they would eventually get around to the cheaper customers. They've done something unethical, but they haven't broken the contract.

Systematically getting people to hand over money when you have no intention to deliver on and have no intention to return is probably fraud.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#365

Post by dhimes »

imtringued wrote: post #350
542458 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There seems to be a group of people who predict hyperinflation at the drop of a hat. I’m not sure if it’s paranoia or motivated reasoning though. Maybe a mix of both?

I think people predicted hyperinflation since QE has been introduced. What people don't get is that QE increases base money. When banks run out of reserves the central bank gives them more. The reverse relationship doesn't have to hold. Giving banks more reserves does not force them to lend the money out. The relationship between bank lending and base money has been fully decoupled. Whenever QE increases the supply o…

QE stands for "Quantitative Easing" (I think) in case anybody else doesn't know.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#366

Post by wycy »

ryanackley wrote: post #274
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

The biggest problem with being an owner builder is you don't have an ongoing relationship with sub-contractors. Which means that for any subs you hire, you will be their lowest priority and their smallest concern. Also, you don't really know what you're doing so you will think they made a mistake when they didn't and you won't always recognize real mistakes. I did this for my new house that was being built before, du…

Properly waterproofing the shower is a major one that can be easily overlooked and won't typically manifest in a major way until years down the road. Hope your contractors used appropriate waterproof Kerdi board or cement board + roll-on membrane.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#367

Post by mbostleman »

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Yes, builders will react by trying to artificially maintain the high prices. But they will ultimately be overcome by the market reality. Unless they all band together but that's impossible given the scale and illegal.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#368

Post by datavirtue »

blacktriangle wrote: post #353
orthoxerox wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One bedroom for the parents, two bedrooms for the kids. As long as all kids conform to the gender binary, two bedrooms should be enough.

You mean as long as the kids' parents aren't mentally abusing their children to score points with their woke friends.

Seeing a lot of this in private school.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#369

Post by erhk »

mbostleman wrote: post #367
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Yes, builders will react by trying to artificially maintain the high prices. But they will ultimately be overcome by the market reality. Unless they all band together but that's impossible given the scale and illegal.

There's a bit of smoothing too i would imagine

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#370

Post by m_myers »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Or build a house from a kit, as noted building expert Buster Keaton does in the short "One Week". What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xd6ddOlbKp8

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