Very interesting. This sounds like a response to the Mighty [0] launch which Paul Graham has been defending on twitter recently after an outcry from some of the 'hardcore' developers such as Jonathan Blow [1] and Casey [2]. [0] https://www.mightyapp.com/ [1] https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Blow/status/1387101172230672389 [2] https://twitter.com/cmuratori/status/1387645578067124224
I am actually in Mighty's market if it cost ~$10usd per month, not $50. At our startup we have a small org of customer service reps. They basically live in four tools: Notion, Slack, Chrome, and Front. These four tools have one thing in common: they are all Electron apps. They SUCK. On any windows computer slower than a $1.5K lenovo, our reps can't have more than ~10 tabs open before their computer starts to stutter.…
Crazy New Ideas
361–370 of 808 posts
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#362Earlier quoted context omitted.
> First, he clearly has too much skin in the game to be credibly neutral about it. I think this is a general and important point (and sadly not at all discussed in his post). When an expert publicly says something that seems wrong, my default explanation is that they have a vested interest that consciously or unconsciously forces them to consider the implications of what they say and alter the message accordingly. Re…
>>"Recent case in point: public health authorities telling the public that masks are useless and even harmful during the pandemic (presumably to avoid shortages) and then reversing their stance when masks became abundant." I agree with your general point, but my interpretation of those events has additional axis: 1. Masks are in shortage, and may not protect you, and public doesn't know how to use them and will proba…
This was the line for a while, but since we now know that it's an airborne infection that basically accumulates when you're in close proximity to someone infected until it reaches a critical point where it can grow faster than your body can fight it off, the mask is the only thing that's slowing it down.
Masks (and good ventilation) are about the only thing that protects you - social distancing means nothing because coronavirus isn't confined to the larger droplets we thought it was. Mask-wearing seems to result in less-serious infections even when you catch it because your initial infection was likely by less virus.
edit: I think there was an official reluctance to admit that it was completely airborne because the constant attempts to reopen businesses (like restaurants) would have been completely thwarted if social distancing (and constant surface sterilization) were meaningless.
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#363>The reason is that everyone is too conservative. Everyone isn't too conservative: veterans in a field are conservative because they have earned the war wounds they carry. Which is why you tend to see "disruptive apps" targeting younger people. They don't have the life experience to understand, at first glance, why an idea may be extremely dangerous. I'm young enough to remember being that way myself: Who cares if so…
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#364HN comment section pessimism is a new metric for evaluating your odds of success. "It's too expensive" or "Nobody needs it because we have X" on a project lead by a domain expert is not constructive criticism or conservatism, it's pure envy. PG isn't defending Mighty, Dropbox or Coinbase because he has skin in the game, but because he knows what the teams have achieved and what they could potentially achieve. I don't…
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#365Even if you get an amazing idea, the chances of it being a good business are small. In fact, some of the best businesses didn’t start out with good ideas. Instead, they started out being considered stupid, wrong, childish, irrational, useless, too easy, too hard, impossible, unethical, unsustainable and we could go on.
If you get an idea that turns out to be a great business, chances are that others would have told you it’s a bad idea you might even yourself at times think it’s a bad idea and almost give up.
The difference between an idea that looks to be a complete failure and one that is wildly successful is often a matter of months. On top of that, most businesses fail even if you have a stellar team and for many not-so-obvious reasons (more about that in the next essay) It’s just hard to know if your idea is great or not or if it just sounds great. So how do you make sure your idea even has a chance of making it? Having worked with hundreds of startups, investors, and founders over the years, we decided to put together a list of principles that can be used to come up with ideas that others want to pay for.
1. There are 3 categories of ideas that potentially could be turned into a business.
Ideas for a solution to a problem
Ideas for fulfilling a need
Ideas that create new demand.
The safest business ideas are solutions to problems. The world is filled with problems. Finding the right problem to solve is often harder than the actual solution. The questions become more important than the answer. The next safest business idea category fulfills an existing need but in a better/cheaper way. Whether a dating service, an email client or a new type of insurance. Finding an underserved market is normally the way in. The riskiest, but potentially most fruitful of them all are ideas that create new demand. These are products or services no one knew they needed before they tried them. Computer games, songs, movies, fart apps, and most social networks belong to this group. Make sure you know which category you are in.
2. Questions you can ask yourself or others: “What problem in your industry would you pay for someone to solve?” “What annoys me that I would be ready to pay for?” “What in my life feels like it could be better?” “What are my friends complaining about?” “What are my friends excited about?” “What has changed over the last 3–5 years?” Ask questions that are open-ended and don’t come with an obvious solution.
3. Once you’ve found an idea to pursue ask yourself: “Are there any existing solutions out there?” “How big is the problem/need?” “Why hasn’t this been solved so far?” “What kind of problem/need is it? (i.e. Legislative, technical, financial, etc)” “Do I have the skills or knowledge or intuition or perseverance to pursue this?” Keep asking questions and don’t be afraid of the answer. The right questions asked today can save you months or years of work down a path that leads nowhere.
4. Define your competitors much more broadly. You will often be asked, “Are there other companies out there doing what you are doing?” The answer most of the time will be yes. If you don’t find anyone, you most likely aren’t defining competitors wide enough. Oftentimes competitors aren’t doing exactly what you are doing but are perceived by customers as if they were. If you define competition too narrow you risk missing what might be inhibiting your growth. If you define too wide then you might find potential market places you weren’t even thinking about.
5. Don’t be afraid of sharing your ideas with others. In the beginning, most great ideas don’t look different than bad ones. Chances are that even if your idea turns out to be a unicorn, no one will notice. In fact, if you are on to something, chances are you will often have to pay people to work on it for you. Reversely if you get an idea that sounds great and everyone loves it, chances are it most likely already exists or it just that, a great idea, not a great business. So unless you’ve found the cure for cancer and then probably instead should patent it, don’t be afraid to share ideas.
6. Fight for your ideas. Ideas are like newborn babies. Extremely fragile in the beginning but with great care and nurturing they can turn into amazing mature businesses. Make sure you give your idea enough time to grow but not enough to turn into a bad teenager.
7. Choose ideas that keep you motivated. Many early-stage startup founders make the mistake of just looking for a good idea rather than something they care about. Most ideas aren’t going to work out, so for most of us, a higher goal is needed. Something that makes you want this idea to exist and be successful. Something to keep us going when thing’s are looking the least likely to succeed. A lot can be done with perseverance and grit, make sure your idea is worth it. There is a lot more to this than what we’ve covered here but as you can see there is a lot more going into ideas than just getting them. So make sure you’ve spent enough time on your idea.
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#366In case someone missed the story, Paul Graham is indirectly talking about the feedback received by Mighty App. And in this particular case, I don't think this is a valid defense. First, he clearly has too much skin in the game to be credibly neutral about it. Second, he avoids addressing the main critique about this "new tech". People are not claiming that it is a bad idea because it is infeasible or not valuable, bu…
I wish he would say this in the post!
The Jealous Nerd:
> One reason they do it is envy
The Hipster:
> it's an easy way to seem sophisticated
The Dark Ages Inquisitor:
> Darwin's harshest critics were churchmen
The Luddites and Sheep:
> the sheer pervasiveness of the current paradigm
This replies to none of the legitimate criticism, and manages to be more dismissive by filing everything under "crabs in a bucket, extra salty".
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#367HN comment section pessimism is a new metric for evaluating your odds of success. "It's too expensive" or "Nobody needs it because we have X" on a project lead by a domain expert is not constructive criticism or conservatism, it's pure envy. PG isn't defending Mighty, Dropbox or Coinbase because he has skin in the game, but because he knows what the teams have achieved and what they could potentially achieve. I don't…
Does anyone remember Color Labs? Go read this thread and marvel at the similarities: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2364463. A stellar team backed by top VCs who invested (extraordinary at the time) $41M sets out to build a location enabled photo-sharing app. VCs tout it as "the next Google". Most of HN is pretty critical with some voices advocating caution and saying "let's not be so dismissive, maybe there is something more to it". Well, it turned out there was nothing more to it.
So no, being dismissed by HN does not automatically mean that your idea is good and you will be successful.
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#368In case someone missed the story, Paul Graham is indirectly talking about the feedback received by Mighty App. And in this particular case, I don't think this is a valid defense. First, he clearly has too much skin in the game to be credibly neutral about it. Second, he avoids addressing the main critique about this "new tech". People are not claiming that it is a bad idea because it is infeasible or not valuable, bu…
I lost a decent amount of respect for pg due to how he keeps portraying Mighty like it's gonna change how we use the Internet and computers in general. Like, really? I don't mind Mighty as a product, I don't mind their team, their pricing or their slick marketing website. But please, call it what it is: A nice and slick Remote Browsing product, one of multiple ones. Cloudflare recently launched an RBI product with mu…
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#369Earlier quoted context omitted.
> A good exercise is to back-test your rule against big ideas through their history. Everyone assumes they would always have been on the right side of history. It's basically impossible to know what you would have been like had you been born in those times. Better is to back-test your rule against paradigm shifts that have occurred in your own lifetime. What are some ideas you dismissed that turned out to work? What…
A very smart professor of mine once thought "They added pictures to hypertext, that's sort of cool I guess." Looking backwards definitely biases you to seeing things you didn't see at the time. Even memories get tinged. But memories are probably the most accurate you can do. I missed bitcoin entirely despite knowing many people who bought as I still don't understand what the appeal is. It doesn't seem efficient to me…
Re: Crazy New Ideas
#370Unrelated to PG's post... I had no clue what MightyApp is so I went to their website [0]. When I scrolled to "Work without the fan noise" section on the homepage my fan started to work pretty hard. Haven't checked if they intentionally got the fan to work, but it was a nice coincidence. [0] mightyapp.com