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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

361–370 of 821 posts

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#361
post #307
post #283

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Possible explanations include: - More asymptomatic transmission of rhinovirus/enterovirus and adenoviruses than influenza. People often don't notice these illnesses, so wouldn't assume it is COVID and quarantine like they would for influenza. - More fomite spread than influenza. They may be more stable on surfaces or in food

These are reasonable theories as well. Though the second one would really have to be "SARS-CoV2 has more fomite spread than flu" to explain the observations. In general though, any sort of explanation that focuses on differences in transmission is more plausible than hand-wavy theories involving R0 and masks. People just desperately want to find evidence that the stuff we did this year made a huge difference.

> People just desperately want to find evidence that the stuff we did this year made a huge difference.

I don't think that's true at all. People have been receptive to the increased evidence that transmission on surfaces is pretty unlikely, for example, despite all the efforts we've put into sanitizing surfaces.

I think most people can appreciate that all the shit we threw at the wall throughout the pandemic eventually comes down to how much effort it is vs how much benefit we get from it. And our understanding of each measure has changed over time. We now know, generally:

Masks indoors are low-effort, medium reward. Masks outdoors are low-effort, low reward.

Cleaning surfaces is medium-effort, low reward.

Staying home is (economically, societally) high-effort, high reward.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#362

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It's conspiracy theory by definition if it falls outside the official narrative. So even science can be a conspiracy theory. In fact, real science has a tendency to be viewed (by non-scientists, it should go without saying) as conspiracy theory insofar as it challenges the official narrative, and invokes complicated explanations, rather than a nice simple answer.

No, a conspiracy theory "by definition" requires collaboration between several human agents. In this overall thread, the idea that the "disappearance" of flu is driven by political desire to label all respiratory illnesses as covid cases would be an example of a conspiracy theory. Another commenter brings up the idea of 'viral interference.' This is not an example of a conspiracy theory, but I do not give the idea gr…

No, that's just your definition.

While I may personally agree the viral interference comment is not (in my definition) a conspiracy theory, it is regarded as a conspiracy theory in many (again, non-scientific) contexts.

The conspiracy is not the collaboration, it is the belief.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#363

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up?

It sounds more like poor data reporting more than anything else and I will take that to my grave.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#364

Maybe we were too callous just allowing the ordinary flu to run rampant, and we should consider in future doing things like masking up when a flu season is expected, so as to stop the disease from killing thousands of old people. And also possibly consider going for full eradication rather than harm reduction. Can flu jabs be made more effective, and multi-strain, using mRNA vaccine technology? That's a genuinely new…

I think some minor measures - mainly just being more considerate when you think you might have the flu - could make a big difference.

Before this year people would still go to work when sick, parents would still let their kids blow out the candles on a cake, everyone at the big event would kiss the same cheeks, etc.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#365
post #336

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4) Don't have children.

... that are in kindergarten / school. But yes, the lockdown a year ago was interesting in that I wasn't sick once. But when everyone is at home and you can't see anyone, there's no one to get sick from either.

Adopting adult kids is kind of awkward, though.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#366
post #315

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> and the small difference in R0 is crude thinking. Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." If influenza has a typical R0 of about 2, reducing contacts by 50% would make its growth non-exponential. If covid has a typical R0 of about 2.5, doing the same would require a further 20% reduction of contacts, to 40% of baseline rather than 50%. Since pop…

> Given the reproduction number appears as the base of an exponent, I would not consider the difference "small." The difference in measurement is small, relative to the error in measurement. Look at the error bars on the R0 estimates in that paper. Influenza runs from 1.06 to 3.4 . You are trying to make micrometer inferences from a parameter where our best estimates are measured in libraries of congress.

Last spring COVID was managing to achieve rapid spread at the same time that the flu season naturally ended. Despite the challenges in measuring R0 for both, this is pretty direct evidence that R0 is higher for COVID than for the flu.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One time I was really sick at an airport McDonalds. Fever, sneezing, the whole thing. But you're in an airport, and you have to eat something. I had to explain almost pedantically why they should allow me to order verbally instead of using their touchscreens, for the safety of the other customers. I think today, they'd have a protocol to accommodate people who are obviously sick so they don't have to touch anything.…

You didn’t think of just washing your hands and maybe using a knuckle to touch the screen instead of going HN pedant on the $7/hr worker? Besides, I would think shooting mucus debris in their direction by talking is worse than using a cleaned knuckle on a screen far away from them.

So, in your expert medical opinion, given years after the fact without any understanding of the illness in question... You think that your advice that "you should just have washed your hands" is such amazing advice that you think it's worth writing here?

What are you hoping to gain? And even if you were right, as I said, I had a high fever. It's not like I was thinking clearly. Are you trying to feel morally superior to someone who was in gravely ill?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inventor of the PCR test himself, Kary Mullis, was very critical of Fauci and the way that PCR is being used today [1]. Are there any rebuttals or counterpoints to his statements on PCR? 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0aMow7FrZo

Kary Mullis also doubts that HIV causes AIDS, believes in astrology, and once saw a fluorescent talking raccoon. Clearly a brilliant guy, but not someone whose advice should directly determine clinical practice. https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/technology-history/man-who... See my other comment here for the reasons why I believe almost all SARS-CoV-2 PCR positives are true positives (as to whether the patient is or…

That's an ad-hominem argument. You might as well say Isaac Newton also believed in astrology, so we should throw out all his work on math and physics. As a non-religious person, astrology and religion are no different to me, so then you might as well throw out any knowledge innovated by like 99% of people who have ever lived.

I have no stake or attachment to Kary Mullis, whether he's wrong or right is irrelevant to me. I just find it interesting that the creator of PCR, which has a lot of attention these days, had opinions that don't get a lot of attention these days. I'll give your comment a look, but am also curious if anybody else has a counter to Mullis' claims.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are... are those still a thing in the first world?

I read somewhere (I think Bill Bryson's "At Home") that they were almost wiped out at one point in the 20th century, but have recently started making a comeback which seems to correlate with the rise of energy saving low temp wash cycles that aren't as effective at killing them.

Off topic, but Bill Bryson is such a fantastic author.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

On the other hand, I don't think I've ever gotten a cold/the flu, at least not since I was a young kid, and I don't take much care to do anything on your list. Sure, I'll wash my hands after using a restroom or before prepping food. But I'll definitely walk into a restaurant (pre-covid) and just start eating a burger without washing my hands first.

I feel the biggest factor is just what body and immune system you have... Some people I know just get sick constantly, multiple times a year, and they don't seem to do much of anything differently than I do. I don't think they're secretly licking doorknobs when no one is looking.

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