Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution' • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#361

Post by severino » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:27 PM UTC

ralfn wrote: post #197

xgb84j wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ethical issue is that the people dying from COVID and the people who might have an adverse reaction from the vaccination are not the same people. If mostly old people die from COVID but the adverse reaction of the vaccine is independent of age, then for very young people the risk of an adverse reaction of the vaccination might outweigh the risk of permanent damage from COVID.

Yeah. As someone not in any risk group I will prefer the Pfizer or Moderna one. I'll be happy to get the Janssen one or even the Sputnik, but if the vaccine they offer me is AZ then I will refuse. And not just because of the obviously higher risk associated, but also because it appears not to be effective against the new strains. (Especially the new South Africa strain). Unlike for example the Janssen vaccine (goes b…

> Yeah. As someone not in any risk group I will prefer the Pfizer or Moderna one. I'll be happy to get the Janssen one or even the Sputnik, but if the vaccine they offer me is AZ then I will refuse.

Maybe they won't let you know, to avoid people refusing to get the AZ "vaccine".

How long until you can buy it? This way it's not a (possibly corrupt) politician deciding which corporation will make the stuff that gets into your body.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#362

Post by yladiz » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:28 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #352

andrewon wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several considerations here: 1. If holding off AstraZeneca vaccine does not affect vaccination rate during the investigation period, it is a prudent thing to do. 2. If vaccine rate is expected to drop, number of expected increase in death per day due to covid vs blood clog should be compared, if we were to minimize short term death. 3. More concerning is unknown effect that could take a long time to materialize. This…

Vaccination rate in Germany will drop considerably while the hold is in place, at least 20%, if not more. I don't know the exact numbers, but vaccination is quite blocked on vaccine supply at the moment.

This isn't really true for the AstraZeneca vaccine, though. There's supply, but people don't seem to trust it and it's just sitting on the shelves because even when people book an appointment they don't show up. I'm sure the number of vaccinations _will_ drop, because it's one of the only few vaccines being distributed, but I doubt it will be as high as you mention here.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#363

Post by GhostVII » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:30 PM UTC

Sounds like a real world case of the trolly problem. Either take no action (by giving out no vaccine) and let hundreds die each day, or give out the vaccine and kill a few people each day (assuming the vaccine is causing the deaths, which likely isn't the case anyways).

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#364

Post by severino » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:31 PM UTC

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #166

xgb84j wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ethical issue is that the people dying from COVID and the people who might have an adverse reaction from the vaccination are not the same people. If mostly old people die from COVID but the adverse reaction of the vaccine is independent of age, then for very young people the risk of an adverse reaction of the vaccination might outweigh the risk of permanent damage from COVID.

But if these reactions are a result of the vaccine, it has to be at an extremely low rate of people vaccinated. Even the small rate of death from COVID for young people is going to be higher than that risk.

> Even the small rate of death from COVID for young people is going to be higher than that risk.

But it doesn't mean that you will surely get COVID if you refuse to get a shot. Also, some people claim the vaccines are not very effective against some variants such as the South African one. So it means you can get vaccinated, suffer some serious side effects, and once you are recovered, get COVID.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#365

Post by polytely » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:36 PM UTC

andrewon wrote: post #280

sradman wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The EMA has said that as of March 10, a total of 30 cases of blood clotting had been reported among close to 5 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca shot in the European Economic Area, which links 30 European countries. "The decision today is purely precautionary..." given this level of signal. We don't have details on the age groups involved and the normal rates expected but I can hazard a Fermi Estimate…

Several considerations here: 1. If holding off AstraZeneca vaccine does not affect vaccination rate during the investigation period, it is a prudent thing to do. 2. If vaccine rate is expected to drop, number of expected increase in death per day due to covid vs blood clog should be compared, if we were to minimize short term death. 3. More concerning is unknown effect that could take a long time to materialize. This…

don't discount trust in the vaccination process, it might be better to visible respond to anomalies to signal that the system that makes sure vaccinations are safe actually works.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#366

Post by agd » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:40 PM UTC

libertine wrote: post #265

agd wrote: post #248

Let’s see if any new data comes out, but from what’s public right now I can only see this pause costing many lives across Europe. We’ve had millions of doses in the UK without serious side effects, so unless there were faulty batches I think any risk must be minuscule, and certainly lower than the known risks of covid deaths for unvaccinated people. This is a case where a cautious ‘first do no harm’ approach will lik…

These cases are 4x greater then the ones in the UK, so either UK isn't reporting some cases, or something isn't right with AZ production. Also, I'm pretty sure each regulator knows the pros and cons of this decision, and they know well the consequences of stopping the vaccination - it's not like they are all incompetent. I mean, imagine the odds of the amount of ignorance to have reached this level of decision making…

The European regulator and the WHO have said that countries should continue to vaccinate with the AZ vaccine, but the national governments are ignoring this.

With this many countries pausing vaccinations, we know that there will potentially be thousands of extra deaths.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#367

Post by azinman2 » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:42 PM UTC

GhostVII wrote: post #363

Sounds like a real world case of the trolly problem. Either take no action (by giving out no vaccine) and let hundreds die each day, or give out the vaccine and kill a few people each day (assuming the vaccine is causing the deaths, which likely isn't the case anyways).

That trolly problem is a one off. Having a major vaccine lead to serious issues puts all of vaccines into question, creating a far larger problem spanning time. It's already the case that various sub-communities are hesitant to get the vaccine based upon previous experimentation on their populations long ago, such as the Tuskegee Study.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#368

Post by Dma54rhs » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:43 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #228

patrickmcnamara wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where does it say that AstraZeneca are delivering less because of Italy's interception of vaccines?

> AstraZeneca on Friday said unspecified export restrictions now rendered plans to bring in large amounts of doses made outside Europe unlikely. It said it now expects to provide 100 million doses to the EU in the first half of this year, down from earlier commitments of around 270 million.

Export restrictions by other countries, from vaccines themselves to substances needed. Pretty sure you got it wrong.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#369

Post by _ph_ » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:45 PM UTC

yladiz wrote: post #362

_ph_ wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccination rate in Germany will drop considerably while the hold is in place, at least 20%, if not more. I don't know the exact numbers, but vaccination is quite blocked on vaccine supply at the moment.

This isn't really true for the AstraZeneca vaccine, though. There's supply, but people don't seem to trust it and it's just sitting on the shelves because even when people book an appointment they don't show up. I'm sure the number of vaccinations _will_ drop, because it's one of the only few vaccines being distributed, but I doubt it will be as high as you mention here.

There have been some delays due to the fact that initially it was only used for people under 65 and only medical personal was qualified to be vaccinated with it - all other vaccinations were limited to 80 and above. But by now the AZ vaccine is used for all age groups and the vaccination has been offered to wider groups. Now, vaccination is mostly limited by availability.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#370

Post by mytailorisrich » Mon, Mar 15, 2021, 11:45 PM UTC

libertine wrote: post #243

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely more people will die from COVID than from blood clotting, due to this delay? Or perhaps not, given that 2020 deaths in Germany were 985,145, only 4.85% higher than 2019, and only 3.2% higher than 2018 (and so basically in line with what we would expect from an aging society). https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoel...

You're missing the point. This is an anomaly. It's not about the "oh it's worth the risk compared to COVID 19". If it's a side effect it wasn't spotted in the trials, why was that? It's not a side effect? It was a problem in production? What problem? Was is tampered with or was an accident? What failed in QA to let that batch come to the public? Was is a storage problem that compromised the batch quality? Was it whil…

> This is an anomaly.

This is not established at all.

Overall the number of blood clots observed is actually less than expected, with an incidence lower than in the general population (i.e. without vaccine at all). My source is BBC News this evening.