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Bitcoin Is Time

dergigi.com

361–370 of 1001 posts

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This[1] is an insightful article from an economist who has experienced the real world economics from very close quarters. I don't have any opinion about Bitcoin one way or another, though through these fascinating arguments I gain new insight about the money and its relationship with geopolitics, human civilisation and other aspects. [1] https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2013/04/22/bitcoin-and-the-da...

That article is from 2013 and so we must grade it on a curve. He makes several wrong assumptions about how bitcoin works because he’s thinking it is based on trust, and he is an inflationist. I have yet to have an economist explain to me why deflation us bad- computers getting cheaper is good, fixed income people being able to afford things us good. Inflation mainly allows government to hand out money yo wall street…

"I have yet to have an economist explain to me why deflation us bad"

There are a few different issues. First, volatility is universally bad for a currency, because it makes all transactions in the currency more risky. Money should always be a medium of exchange first and foremost; there should be little to no room for speculating on the value of money and people should not have to factor in unexpected changes in the value of money when determining prices. In general people will switch from more volatile to less volatile currencies because less volatile currencies make trade more efficient.

Unexpected deflation is particularly bad, because in addition to the general problems with volatility, it also triggers defaults on loans (because money becomes more difficult to obtain). Too many defaults in too short a period of time will create a "contagion" effect by reducing the collateral held by lenders (who use loans as collateral for their own debts), which triggers even more defaults. Worse, as lenders see their collateral vanish, they will try to make up the difference with money, taking money out of circulation and causing even more deflation and thus more defaults. This is the "deflationary spiral" scenario.

Inflation is not some trick to hand money over to "Wall St." Rather, a low, predictable rate of inflation is targeted so that there will be some "breathing room" during an economic crisis. It does not hurt people on a fixed income because it can be planned for and the fixed income can be adjusted for inflation (e.g. someone could hold a portfolio of TIPS). It also has nothing to do with the price of computers, which have become cheaper because of economic growth (and in fact have become cheaper over decades of inflation). Inflation also encourages investment activity by discouraging the hoarding of money, which is a good thing for the economy.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#362
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we had argued about energy requirements in late 60s we would have never reached Moon or built the LHC. This is not even close to true. The energy requirements for the Saturn program and for the LHC were calculated and understood in precise detail, and did not depend on any assumption that there would be new energy sources in the future.

The study that raised concerns regarding Bitcoin's energy usage also suggests the amount of electricity consumed every year by always-on but inactive home devices in the US alone could power the entire Bitcoin network for a year[1]. I am not trying to undermine Bitcoin's energy problem. We need more discussion and awareness on this than just labeling "Bitcoin bad" because it consumes more energy. [1]: https://www.bbc…

Two wrongs don't make a right.

No amount of whataboutisms will offset the fact that Bitcoin's energy usage is additive on top of everything else. We don't get to choose between vampire device energy use or Bitcoin. We have to deal with both.

The very nature of Bitcoin incentivizes ever-increasing competition to spend more energy on mining. As long as the price continues to rise (as Bitcoin proponents hope) then the incentive to mine continues to rise.

Meanwhile, improving energy standards and improving power conversion technology continue to push energy consumption of vampire consumer devices down.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People clearly see the flaw in PoW if they are not emotionally attached to it because they have no money at stake. You should not misinterpret that as hate because they missed the train to richness. The vitriol that Bitcoin evokes from HN commenters can really only be explained by jealousy, the environmental concern is just a cover for covetousness.

This is true, because the vitriol was there prior to anyone complaining about Bitcoin's power usage (i.e. when it was too small to matter). I remember when I first heard of Bitcoin. I quite frankly found it technically intimidating. It was a totally new concept. I didn't get it. I took my own discomfort as a sort of signal that it was really important; something totally new. So I studied it. I had to put time and eff…

The problem is that there could easily be flaws in Bitcoin that have been there all along. We’ll know the answer to this if it eventually fails.

I too wish I’d made more effort to buy it earlier. Presumably that sentiment applies to the majority of humans on earth, whether you are now a Bitcoin millionaire or not.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#364
post #69

This is the article that made things finally click with me. Thinking about the pre-WWI gold standard and the issues that existed there and the improvements that Bitcoin brings around time, consensus, etc. The baseless negative comments with no interaction with the article content confirms for me that Bitcoin is on to something. Sour grapes syndrome is a result of pride, I think.

Bitcoin is nothing like gold. Gold has inherent value. If I buy 100% of the world's gold, gold would still be valuable. If I buy 100% of the world's bitcoin, it's the same as owning no Bitcoin. Gold would be immensely valued during an extreme global crisis (WWIII, massive solar flare, etc) whereas bitcoin would be entirely useless.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#365

Bitcoin is only popular because tech workers get paid a lot and have the ability to speculate, we live in a world of massive asset bubbles created by government fiscal policies and Bitcoin is excellent for buying drugs on-line. Most people want security in their assets, which is why a majority of folks read articles about bitcoin but never touch one. All of these articles are great examples of creative writing. I do…

"we live in a world of massive asset bubbles created by government fiscal policies" Do we? Or have we lived in a world where asset prices were suppressed due to artificial intervention by central banks. Interest rate setting is a market intervention. If left to its own devices the market rate would be driven down towards zero.

Being driven down to zero I think means people would lend at 0% interest - I would think thousands of years of anecdotal evidence would speak to the contrary - how would it ever get to zero? Who would lend like that? What would their motivation be?

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be less glib, I think the article makes it clear just how inordinately difficult blockchains make their lives when they have to build, from scratch, a reliable definition of time. If you could have a trusted time source, you could at a stroke get rid of one of the most egregious flaws in bitcoin, its vast wastage of energy, because of its 'proof of work' mining. Bitcoin miners are running at full pelt 24/7, pickin…

I think you’re right on, but good luck with provable timestamps. You’re trying to coordinate and validate a measurement which in itself denies the reality of space time physics at least subtly. Time precision across space is hard enough, but adding bad actors and gravitational time dilation into the equation means... well I wouldn’t want that to keep track of my assets.

The nice thing about relativity (special and general) is that all of the weird seeming-paradoxes 'sort themselves out' eventually. In particular, whilst we lose a total ordering for events, we never lose causality; i.e. two events can only appear in a different order to different observers if those two events are independent (no information has travelled between them, and hence neither one can influence the other).

It's reasonably straightforward to build systems under such constraints; e.g. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relativistic_programming

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#367
post #272

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can you explain your point about renewable energy? I'm not sure I see how that follows

It doesn't follow. Bitcoin chases cheap energy, so wherever green is cheaper than carbon that's where Bitcoin will be mined. Eventually carbon will be more expensive everywhere.

And wherever green is not cheaper, Bitcoin prefers to use dirty and send the externalities to my grandkids.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#368
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sour grapes syndrome is a result of pride, I think. Or maybe it comes from people who have read an Econo101 textbook and who have spent a lot of time trying to explain a crowd of Bitcoin enthusiasts why their reasoning is wrong but no one has been listening to them so far so they are bored. Back in the time I used to spend my days on a forum about Economics. Every other week there was a random guy who signed up jus…

>Or maybe it comes from people who have read an Econo101 textbook and who have spent a lot of time trying to explain a crowd of Bitcoin enthusiasts why their reasoning is wrong The market decides. Not an economics "expert", nor fitting btc to an arbitrary theoretical definition of money. >It seems that tech has enabled a grand new theory about money to be implemented. Are you aware of the Austrian school of economics…

The market decided about Tulips at one point. It later changed its mind.

Re: Bitcoin Is Time

#370

Let me fix that title. Happy to be downvoted into negative territory. I only have 11 points. Go ahead. "Bitcoin Is A Waste of Time (and Resources)" What Bitcoin has done is that it taught people they can come together in a sustained flash mob (like an on-the-fly hedge fund operation) and manipulate the price of speculative assets by creating artificial short-term pump-n-dump type demand. Bitcoin has trained our colle…

> Happy to be downvoted into negative territory.

I see another comment on top doing the same. Why do people start with this? If you don't bother you should not even brought that up. Seems like an underhanded way of getting more points. Do people even fall for this?

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