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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#361

Post by gautamcgoel »

dartharva wrote: post #255
Dirak wrote: post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

>A Reddit competitor emerges and wins majority marketshare So many have tried and failed already. I would really wish that to happen though.

What's wrong with Reddit?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#362

Post by kkdaemas »

jamienicol wrote: post #311
kkdaemas wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that you came to this view. Boris seems to have handled COVID incredibly poorly (e.g. the death rate in the UK is higher than comparable countries) and the trade deal is considerably worse than deals he previously rejected (e.g. customs border inside the UK). I expect that once the world stabilizes again, members of his own party will want to take his job.

I agree with your assessment of Johnson, but I don't think the majority of the country (or perhaps more importantly conservative voters) do

We won't really know until the election, but for what it's worth opinion polls have Johnson down compared to when he started his term.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#363

Post by ipnon »

echelon wrote: post #181
ipnon wrote: post #176

Alphabet, Facebook and Twitter will be beat up enough from anti-trust and legislation to shake investor confidence considerably. Amazon, Apple and Microsoft will emerge unscathed. The merits of this I will leave to the reader, but there has surely been a long-lasting shift in public opinion against social media due to the unrelenting assault of Trumpism. The irony of this assault being launched from twitter.com/reald…

Swap Apple with Twitter in your list. (What sort of antitrust anything has Twitter done? Have you seen their market cap and user base?) Apple controls 50% of domestic US computing and has redefined the concept of a computer to be a highly taxed walled garden with mysterious, byzantine rules. More companies like Epic will sue them and Apple will ultimately be forced to open up iOS to 3rd party apps. Apple can't be a s…

I included Twitter because I predict an amendment to section 230 will be passed. I don't have much faith in Congress to carefully consider the effects of their technological legislation on an open and free Web.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#364

Post by gautamcgoel »

Sebb767 wrote: post #80

I predict that we'll see a sharp drop in real estate prices and rents in major cities. They are way beyond reasonable at the moment; my presumption is that the decline of small businesses will open up at lot of space. Given this and the radical shift to work from home, I presume that the cities will attract far less people (especially in high paid jobs) and therefore the apartment searching madness we see right now w…

This would be great for me (I am in my late-twenties and would like to settle down soon), but sadly I don't think this prediction will come to pass. Urban real estate prices will continue to rise in the US as more and more people move to cities, chasing economic and social opportunities.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#365

Post by mythrwy »

-One or more assassinations of prominent political figures in the United Stated.

-An uptick in private security services.

-Bitcoin corrects into summer. 2021 is not the year of 6 figure BTC. (although that is probably coming in the next few years).

-I plan to make a bunch of changes and do dramatic things but do not. I do however do some unexpected things that turn out wonderfully.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#369

Post by frankenst1 »

ben_w wrote: post #356
frankenst1 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply - something they have already been doing in 2020 at an unprecedented rate which will continue in 2021. While Bitcoin might not be the payment system some have been hoping for, it surely provides a hedge against the incoming increase in inflation rates which is why institutional investors are increasingly re…

> You can't trust the government (or the central banks) to not dilute your savings by increasing the money supply I expect the government to do so, and I also expect that it will usually be done in a controlled fashion and for broader economic benefit. Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever), this will be done by people no…

> I expect the government to do so.

I suspect many don't and many underestimate the effect inflation has on their savings.

> Conversely, I expect that when Bitcoin goes wrong and the 21 million unit limit is replaced (call it “Bitcoin Future Fork” or whatever)

Bitcoin is 10 years old, there are already numerous forks which changed several parameters of the original Bitcoin implementation. According to their market value, all of them failed in comparison. In fact, Bitcoin's hesitation to implement breaking changes (hard-forks) may be what the market finds valuable.

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