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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#361

Post by lesdeuxmagots »

SilasX wrote: post #345
dredmorbius wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Federal Reserve manages both the money supply and unemployment, generally against GDP growth targets. Real estate --- residential, commercial, and industrial --- is among the largest asset classes in the financial system, and it acts as collateral and backing of loans and other financial instruments. Those in turn affect banks and their own ability to generate loans, themselves much of the total money supply. Whe…

Propping up assets isn’t in their mandate though.

Their mandate requires a stable financial system with solvent institutions and sufficient liquidity moving through the system.

By definition, solvency and liquidity at the country level depend on major asset classes maintaining some amount of value.

That baseline changes based on regulations of what can or cannot be used as collateral for different measures, what ratios institutions have to maintain, etc, but there is a floor of some sort at which point the financial system implodes and the economy collapses.

Given their powers and mandate, preventing economic collapse is of the utmost importance.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#362

Post by asiachick »

Swizec wrote: post #294
asiachick wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way you feel about SF vs your 300k residents town is how I feel about Tokyo vs SF. When I'm in SF it's sad how few choices I have and how bad most of them are. And all those asian restaurants you mention are not remotely "good". You can find a few descent asian restaurants in the south bay like say Fremont but LA does them all significantly better and in far higher quantity

Correct. Both of those cities are larger than SF. Less walkable due to lower density, though. If it weren’t for SF’s high concentration of my industry (tech), I’d likely move to NYC, London, or Paris.

I find Tokyo far more walkable than SF. I don't like the public transportation in SF. It's dirty, gross, and slow and have to walk over homeless people and smell piss everywhere and even without transportation most areas in Tokyo are super walkable with access to almost everything you could need just a few minutes walk away.

I'd say Paris and London (and most > 1m people cities in Europe and many in Asia) are also more walkable than SF.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#363

Post by temp667 »

part1of2 wrote: post #325
temp667 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a family member who works at walgreens. The theft is incredible. In the bay area and particularly SF this is not one or two candy bars a week theft. In SF, if you stop a shoplifter and they are hurt, if they are in a protected class etc, it's game over for you as an employee and possibly the store. Even if you stop someone, even if police come and arrest, DA is never going to prosecute. If they do prosecute, i…

I bet prices just go up store-wide to cover, and even higher on items where the cost is more asymmetric (prescriptions)

For sure. But pharmacy is very competitive and at some point it's a losing game.

For example - Walgreen runs about about a 4% margin and profit runs about $4 billion (all very rough numbers).

The problem with theft is that its a total loss so it can really chop into margins - these are shelves that you build a supply chain and staff to stock and then get zero.

Someone walks in with a backpack and just fills it full (maybe 50 - 100 individual items). Meanwhile you have 20 customers buying a few items (1-5). So you sell 100 items at 104% of all in cost (4% positive margin) and 100 walk out the door (if only the knapsack guy steals) at 0% of cost. Your margin is negative immediately (-40%+).

Walgreens actually has budgets for theft store managers try to work with in (pretty high ones actually). But theft the way it happens in SF - you need to understand there are no consequence, the only folks to get in trouble would be employees trying to stop it.

It also drives away customers you do want (older people filing scrips will go to what are perceived as safer locations) and moves other sales to online / delivery etc.

They are robbed while TV crews are filming about robberies :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FmN4e1fNUo

SF talks a lot of crap about Amazon, but if amazon offers a safe / delivery to your garage / car / inside door pharmacy service it could be game over for a lot of players.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#364

Post by staticassertion »

sidlls wrote: post #341
staticassertion wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem that way. Technology is making it more and more possible, companies like Dropbox, which have never supported remote work, are even shifting over.

I'd bet within a year or maybe two tops that the vast majority of "permanent" remote companies will have reverted to be mostly or entirely on-premise again. One or two might last, but most won't.

Maybe. If the property values completely collapse and they can get cheaper leases, I could see it, but that's sort of an after the fact issue.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#365

Post by rsync »

dannyw wrote: post #148
pdx6 wrote: post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are.

"I don’t think everyone who lives in San Fran wants do life in San Fran. They’re here because that’s where the jobs are."

I live in San Francisco and I want to do life here. I moved here very specifically to set down roots and raise my family in the SFBA.

I have the option to live anywhere in the world and I believe that the confluence of the west marin national seashore and the city center of San Francisco is unique in all the world for contrasting landscape, and energy boundaries, all within fifteen minutes driving.

On top of it all, Squaw Valley - the set location of all my childhood ski heroes - is just three hours away.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#366

Post by smartbit »

sidlls wrote: post #341
staticassertion wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem that way. Technology is making it more and more possible, companies like Dropbox, which have never supported remote work, are even shifting over.

I'd bet within a year or maybe two tops that the vast majority of "permanent" remote companies will have reverted to be mostly or entirely on-premise again. One or two might last, but most won't.

Why do certain companies succeed as a remote company (Gitlab comes to mind) and others wouldn’t? I think you’re probably right, but I’d like to understand. Will working from home force a change in management style?

To compensate for lack of socialization in the office, I notice that companies like Gitlab organise corporate gatherings were all employees can meet in person. Open Source projects teams meet at (the fringe of) Fosdem and probably at their yearly conference a second time.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#367

Post by greesil »

tomcam wrote: post #340
scarmig wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The central component of the American Dream is that, once you're rich, the government will do everything in its power to make sure you remain rich.

Please describe that mechanism for me.

Wall Street bailouts, letting corporations exfiltrate revenue to off shore tax havens, defunding the IRS, oddly specific tax loopholes, tax cuts on the wealthy, letting lobbyists write the laws. That's just from thinking about it for ten seconds.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#368

Post by throwmea122 »

pdx6 wrote: post #143

For those that think this is the end of San Francisco, take a deep breath. The empty office space and worries about expiring leases only applies to companies that can't work remote. SF has a huge service industry, swaths of culture, and some pretty nice weather. A bunch of chair warmers and button pushers moved to Tahoe or Mazzula, so what? It is nice to have a huge house and some land, but city living is are a trade…

My bigger concern with SF is property crime and homelessness. I don't feel safe in this city. It's been getting worse every year and there is no end in sight. Major conferences already relocated because of it.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#369

Post by [deleted] »

nicktrocado wrote: post #75
InTheArena wrote: post #57

I live in a state where we are suddenly inundated with California’s refugees, fleeing the state now that they don’t have to physically live there. Reasonable taxes, a much less stressful work-life balance, bigger homes all make it very appealing to ditch the once0golden state. Our company has decided not to reopen a majority of it’s office space. Ironically, the Bay Area office is remaining open while other offices a…

Which state? I thinking of moving and would like to know good states to move into

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#370

Post by thatguy0900 »

CitrusFruits wrote: post #359
thatguy0900 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I read about them moving to states like Texas in numbers, all I can think is that they will inevitably try to take these same policies with them when they find out wherever they moved too isn't quite liberal enough

I think you're totally right in some capacity, but there's also a lot of people who are excited to get away from the hyper-liberal climate of California.

I guess it just depends on California's vs Texans definition of hyper liberal. I don't know what level of liberalism it would take to get dislike from the average Texan but I know it has to be miles away from declaring that arresting shoplifters is racist.
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