Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

tsmc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 438 posts

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#361

Post by magicsmoke »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #281
riffraff wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what about submarines? It seems likely one of the first moves the US could do is disrupt china's economy by simply blocking their sea routes.

The question is, who would that harm more? March 2020 has shown us that disrupting sea routes between two continents hurts everyone .

Certainly not the US. One of the US's greatest geopolitical advantages is that it actually does have all the natural resources it needs in the America's. That's why calls for isolationist policies can be so enticing, because unlike for most countries dependent on oil or metals from international trade, there's no physical barrier to the US taking the option of turtling up. China would suffocate on its lack of oil as it tries to sip what it can through the straws it has to Russian oil fields on the other end of Eurasia if it ever had international oil shipping barred from it.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#362

Post by magicsmoke »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #279
threatofrain wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way the future will only be robot vs robot in some sterile symbolic chess game. The endgame is robots getting past robots to kill people.

Indeed. A proxy robot war is just a very expensive game. And if you can settle your differences this way, you may as well do that in Quake 3 Arena for cheaper. And if you can settle your differences with Q3A, you may as well do that over the negotiating table. All of these depend on mutual cooperation; both parties agreeing to respect the outcome of the game. Real war starts when one party is unhappy about the outcom…

Also when the two parties misjudge their relative military strength. If both parties were in relative agreement about what the outcome of their war would be they wouldn't have to fight one in order to negotiate changes to the status quo. That's why espionage can be a stabilizing force and the US and USSR had treaties during the latter parts of the cold war allowing each side to fly spy planes into the others territory to count missile sites.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#363

Post by thu2111 »

derefr wrote: post #19
pascoej wrote: post #15

This is interesting. Right now TSMC seems to provide Taiwan with guaranteed US protection because they are so far ahead technologically. Apple, AMD, and the defense industry have little alternative if they want a cutting edge node. It's unclear how long they will maintain this dominance. Maybe the long term US-Taiwan ties of factories in the US will make this worth it strategically. I assume that all R&D will remain…

What does the defense industry need a cutting-edge node for? Better drone battery life?

Robots that use AI autonomously in the battlefield. Better chips = better and faster inferencing, which means faster reaction times. If both sides have such robots and both robots have similar kinetic weapons then who wins may boil down to how fast a neural network can identify the target and decide what to do.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#364

Post by xxs »

Kirby64 wrote: post #360
xxs wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like the most of the discussion here totally missed that part - that would be no consumer grade chips and likely the prime client would be US military. 20k wafers (perhaps 450mm ones?) with unknown yield (likely 80ish) is quite low. For reference AMD 5700 has die area of ~250mm.

It'll be 300mm wafers. No one is doing 450mm wafers because cost-benefit doesn't make sense. Given it's low volume, they're going to reuse tooling that's already available, which means 300mm.

Indeed, 450mm was supposed to be a joke - kind of failed one as there are two responses about it.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#365

Post by Ericson2314 »

AgloeDreams wrote: post #351
Nokinside wrote: post #269

Important detail: This is not GIGAFAB facility. Only 20,000 wafers per month is between mini- and megafab for TSMC. I suspect the production goes to US defense applications. Pompeo tweeting about it seems to confirm it. https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1261143980634509318 ? >Secretary Pompeo >@SecPompeo >The U.S. welcomes TSMC’s intention to invest $12B in the most advanced 5-nanometer semiconductor fabrication f…

This seems like something China might treat as an act of aggression by Taiwan..right? Like, now they are giving China good reason to see Taiwan as hostile, esp. with all their efforts to snuff out Taiwan.

I am sure China likes this. If TSCM is scared of a PRC takeover and trying to move investment out of the country, Well China's messaging is working.

Maybe before Taiwan was sufficiently richer per capita that taking it over had something to do with its wealth, but now it's a almost exclusively a matter of pride and nationalism. If they get control of a deindustrialized husk, they can say "Look at all the US boot-lickers we chased out".

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#366

Post by MR4D »

type-2 wrote: post #257
_fq4v wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Never mind the civil unrest, the entire world would bail out of China. That is not clear.. at all. Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand -- the non-US western allies -- have all known exactly what China's end goal is and have down jack diddly squat to put pressure on them. The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. Europe and the rest of the world is too cowardly to even do anythi…

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

China is working on taking Hong Kong first, before moving onto Taiwan.

I give it between 1-5 years before they move in some way on Taiwan.

One thing I would not bet on is a direct military incursion - that would cause too many foreign headaches. Something messy that's hard to pull apart is better. The current events with social unrest in HK are a good example of creating ambiguity.

The one interesting thing to me is that China normally has a very long time horizon, but now they don't. Trump has effectively made sure that Cold War 2.0 has started, and China is the enemy. The problem for the Chinese in this situation is that a substantial amount of manufacturing will move out of China, weakening their economy. And a weak economy is usually not a good thing for leadership.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#367

Post by mensetmanusman »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #334
101404 wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they didn't wait for the right president. The past 40 years, they developed economically and technologically. It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy.

>It is only since Xi became president, that China feels confident to have a more assertive foreign policy. How so? There hasn't been a sharp rise in military spending, they haven't invaded anywhere, and they've largely maintained their same course on most of the disputed territories.

South China Sea

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#368

Post by tw04 »

type-2 wrote: post #257
_fq4v wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Never mind the civil unrest, the entire world would bail out of China. That is not clear.. at all. Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand -- the non-US western allies -- have all known exactly what China's end goal is and have down jack diddly squat to put pressure on them. The only thing preventing China from taking out Taiwan is the United States. Europe and the rest of the world is too cowardly to even do anythi…

Russia took crimea without any issue. Do you really think anything will happen if china took taiwan by force? It's a matter of time before china takes taiwan.

>Russia took crimea without any issue.

You mean other than the crippling sanctions that were actually working until Trump took office? I think you fail to realize how close Putin was to the precipice on that one - when the oligarchs lose faith, it's tough to keep your hold on power.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#369

Post by andy_ppp »

esmi wrote: post #358
Nokinside wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how that big investment for relative low volume production would make sense for consumer products. If the fab is located inside the US, AMD and NVIDIA can bid for many US government contracts that would go for Intel. After GlobalFoundries quit the race, US defense contractors have only Intel as supplier for many components.

> I don't see how that big investment for relative low volume production would make sense for consumer products. If the consumer product is a toy then sure. If it’s a medical device then it could make sense. It’s all about margin. > After GlobalFoundries quit the race, US defense contractors have only Intel as supplier for many components. Maybe. If you want millions of chips a quarter then sure. But if you want 1000…

You can seriously get small run chips made on 7nm in the US? I just don't believe it.

Re: TSMC Announces Intention to Build and Operate Advanced Semiconductor Fab in U.S.

#370

Post by rrss »

lliamander wrote: post #223
gok wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, TSMC has operated a fab in Camas, Washington for many years.

Oh, interesting! Thanks for the correction.

Note that the wafertech/TSMC fab11 only does processes down to 0.16 um.

https://www.wafertech.com/en/foundry/technology.html

Post reply on HN