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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#361

Post by sdkaufman »

easytiger wrote: post #354
sdkaufman wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Young People at the lowest risk from this virus are going to be much worse off than just catching a fucking bad cold. It's not a "fucking bad cold" for young people. - Over 50% of ICU patients in Netherlands from COVID-19 are under 50. [1] - Over 50% of ICU patients in France are under 60. [2] - Over 40% of patients requiring hospitalization in China were under 50. [3] Young people are not invincible. The fact that…

Well if you triage patients and ventilate people much more likely to survive, that's what the numbers might end up being

No, triage based on likelihood of survival has not been happening widely yet in France and the Netherlands (thankfully).

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#362

Post by dmix »

mistersquid wrote: post #339
dmix wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the "UK's answer" that's different than every other country with similar rates has done? Authorities have already denied the whole "herd immunity" meme is any sort of active policy in the UK. https://politicshome.com/news/uk/health-and-care/illnesstrea...

Now that there is a growing backlash, the UK authorities are rejecting that they ever were trying to achieve "herd immunity” by allowing 60-80% of the “low-risk” population to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2. However, the article you link to does not differ in its details from what authorities such John Edmunds a professor Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said 2 day…

That still doesn’t answer what they are doing differently than everyone else. Seems like a whole lot of politics I’m not invested in.

I guess people want far more aggressive policies but the same could be said of the majority of places. Italy and Spain are very much the exception in western countries and they are facing a higher scale. Here in Canada the federal gov has done absolutely nothing besides increased spending and repeating critiques of other countries for being too aggressive, meanwhile our prime minister is in isolation and Quebec just announced major bans of restaurants and bars, while also critiquing the prime minister for doing nothing. The current policy sounds more in line with WHO and the wider health system recommendations.

Even the US has faced significant backlash for their border policies from these same countries (our health minister has repeatedly claimed it has no scientific basis to close borders to places like China).

It’s hard to tell what people want vs just opportunistically critiquing politicians. I’m more curious from a practical healthcare perspective what they are expecting vs what’s actually being done. Border bans (can they do that w/o parliament)? Shutting down gatherings? Directly influence the health administration to test more? Better airport screening?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#363

Post by listenallyall »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #319
listenallyall wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they need to work, but they -- and front-of-house staff -- would be far better off with restaurants that are open and functioning. Perhaps not at 100%, but they could certainly allow half-capacity or "shift seating". I'm sorry but it's simply a very bad look, when it is mandated by the government. Nearly everyone else has the luxury of remaining isolated and avoiding exposure, except for this small segment of vu…

There may be a misunderstanding here. The shutdowns we're seeing in the US aren't full lockdowns - under current plans, most businesses will remain open and most people will continue to go to work. I'd agree with what you're saying if there were a full lockdown happening that arbitrarily excluded to-go restaurants, but we're just doing targeted shutdowns of the biggest transmission vectors.

> most people will continue to go to work

Virtually all white collar workers, tech, administrative, managerial - work from home. Teachers, school admins & university workers - home. Entertainment (shows, sports, movies, concerts) - home. Apple - home.

Shitty jobs that nobody cares about except during a crisis: janitorial/sanitation - work despite the risks. Cooks/food prep - work despite the risks. Grocery store/Walmart - work despite the risks. Truckers - work despite the risks.

(Trucking isn't necessarily a shitty job but a lot of people seem gleeful that technology may render them obsolete in the near future.)

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#364

Post by easytiger »

seieste wrote: post #65
reedx8 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.

Italy is recording a death every four minutes. The annual flu doesn't even come close to that.

That's not true necessarily. Italy has had this outlier before

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

Highlights

- In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%. - More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#365

Post by diebeforei485 »

na85 wrote: post #242
pbourke wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Alaska cruise season will likely not happen this year. The Canadian government has banned cruise ships from Canadian ports until 1 July. Legally, the foreign-flagged ships of major cruise lines must call at a foreign port between calls at US ports. All Alaska cruises call at Vancouver on their way from Seattle to Alaska. https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/canada-suspends-cr...

Maybe they'll sail under the US flag?

Then they'd have to pay U.S. wages and working conditions. Avoiding that is the whole reason they are foreign flagged.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#366

Post by foota »

briandear wrote: post #296
pinot wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China nipped this before they spent much time in the exponential phase: http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#g8 US is tracking highly with Italy, but 12 days behind.

How is the US 12 days behind? Where does that number come from? The first Italian case was a month after the first US case.

Iirc the first us case was isolated, what really matters is the first community spread. The 12 days comes from lining up the curves. Our current # of cases is where Italy was 12 days ago.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#367

Post by iso947 »

remarkEon wrote: post #248
hartator wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

China shut down their entire economy for about 6 weeks. That's what we're debating here, whether we should do that in the US.

China is still locked down. It can’t unlockdown until they have a way to stop it, they’ve basically managed to reset the clock to early January.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#368

Post by tasssko »

tathougies wrote: post #313
jader201 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is stocks continue to fall — hard — and nobody knows where the floor is. It’s also unclear how long it will take everything to recover, if they do continue to fall.

Stock prices don't really matter in the short-term, and we are lucky that the underlying financials are good, and that -- at the end of the largest bull run in history -- many of the largest companies have lots of cold hard cash. Apples hundreds of billions don't look so silly now, do they? Oh, BTW, the floor is hard-set at zero, which they'll never get to, since -- given there is no underlying financial issue, and t…

No issue? Corporate debt ...

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/03/12/c...

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#369

Post by saithound »

listsfrin wrote: post #297
Taek wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU. All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people…

I've never seen studies that say anything about "permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients". Where did you read this? "young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%." Any links?

Even the very first COVID-19 study [1] showed that 42% of the survivors (and _all_ of the deceased) treated in the Wuhan pulmonary hospitals experienced sepsis. Sepsis [3] causes tissue death all around the body, leading to permanent decrease in the function of the affected organs. Our ways of mitigating sepsis work only for bacterial infections, which COVID-19 isn't [2].

Sepsis aside, just plain pneumonia in adults is no laughing matter: pneumonia survivors are twice as likely to die as others in their demographic, be they rich, poor, old or young [4]. See the long term effects of SARS: if you survive, your health status and exercise capacity will be impaired for a long time, potentially for the rest of your life [5].

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

[2] https://www.epmmagazine.com/news/new-drug-could-stop-sepsis-...

[3] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/sepsis

[4] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4066634/

[5] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20337995

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#370

Post by murraybhenson »

briandear wrote: post #283
anigbrowl wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Creditors can experience some of the pain that they normally inflict on others. They are not sacrosanct and are the least important parties in economic relations during an emergency. As normality is restored, they will have new opportunities during the ensuing large scale financial restructuring.

Bob’s Drywall Supply has net 60 for a delivery of drywall. Constructor Bill now can’t pay. Bob’s Drywall is a creditor and is on the hook for a product he already shipped. Now Bob’s Drywall Supply can’t pay the company that provided him with Net 90 terms. So Bob and Bill are now insolvent. And they fire their employees. Suggesting that creditors somehow deserve “pain,” is just cruel. Creditors don’t “inflict pain” on…

The company, Construction Materials Inc, that supplied Bob's Drywall Supply should accept a delay in payment. In order to ensure payment comes as quickly as possible, an order block (no new orders are accepted from Bob's) or a shipping block (orders are accepted but not shipped) or both are placed on Bob's account.

Now, of course, what of Construction Materials, Inc? Surely they buy the raw materials from someone and ...so on. Everyone does - or should do - the same: don't adjust the terms, simply accept that the past due items are past due and will be paid a bit later than normal.

Eventually it will hit a bank or large financial institution, and they ought to do the same: accept the situation and wait. It's costly when businesses go bankrupt and everyone knows that this situation is affecting everyone else and will blow over in about six weeks.

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