Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 671 posts

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#361

Post by AlexCoventry »

tlogan wrote: post #116
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

> you need sell all these products to somebody.

I've heard that the US mostly sells stuff to itself, i.e., trade is a relatively small component of its GDP. I haven't looked into it, yet, though.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#363

Post by kyralis »

magduf wrote: post #188
roymurdock wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've heard that argument but it's wrecking parts of the ag sector, hurting manufacturing (big parts of his base), and will probably push all consumer prices up. I guess if his base can't put 2 and 2 together that prices are rising due to his tariffs it almost makes sense. But I don't think it's that simple, he's clearly a coin operated guy so which coin is operating him to escalate this trade war?

>I guess if his base can't put 2 and 2 together that prices are rising due to his tariffs it almost makes sense. His base really can't put 2 and 2 together. You seem to think it's obvious that tariffs will cause prices to rise, but you seriously underestimate just how stupid these people are.

They're not stupid, for the most part. They just have a different set of priorities.

Many of the individuals supporting the trade war and tariffs know that it's causing them problems, but as far as they're concerned it's worth it to stop China from "screwing them over" or "taking advantage of them". This is not, in fact, an unusual thing- people are are frequently willing to take some personal pain to punish what they believe is wrongdoing or failure to adhere to social norms.

I happen to be on the side that believes the tariffs and trade war are doing more harm than good, but labeling those who disagree as stupid is exactly the sort of thing that leads to resentment, failure to communicate, and polarization, none of which are valuable.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#364

Post by noelsusman »

ummonk wrote: post #260
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade I expect the US to lose the trade war simply because China will have the fortitude to outlast it, but why would the direction of trade favor China in the trade war? Shouldn't China have more to lose due to being a net exporter?

Yeah China definitely has more to lose. The US will win if it goes on for long enough, but it's like chopping off your hand in order to chop off another guy's arm. You're technically winning, but you're also inflicting enormous pain on yourself.

I also agree that in reality China has more ability to withstand pain and the US will blink first if it comes down to it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#365

Post by refurb »

torstenvl wrote: post #5

Time to get more conservative with your investments. Just moved my retirement accounts from 100% in a 2050 lifecycle fund to 75% in a 2030 lifecycle fund and 25% in just government bonds. Not all investment vehicles have a "lifecycle" fund but its intent is to be appropriately conservative for a target date. As the date grows closer, the fund gets more conservative in order to lessen the risk of sudden swings right b…

I'd disagree with this approach. If your target retirement date really is 2050, you have more than enough time to weather a downturn in the market.

The key problem with timing the market is it's easy to miss out on the recovery. Most people get back in once the recovery is obvious and the big gains have already happened.

During 2008 I tried to put my money where my mouth was and not touch my investments. My portfolio went down by 35% (several hundreds of thousands). But I was in at the bottom. However, it recovered in less than 2 years and is now up about 250%, mainly because I was fully invested during all the big gains.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#366

Post by jacobolus »

SkyBelow wrote: post #234
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

If a career grifter manages to skate free while leaving a heap of rubble behind, we should surely praise them for their ingenuity at extracting money from their workers, suppliers, investors, or customers. What mastery!

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#367

Post by refurb »

tunesmith wrote: post #343
refurb wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

Philosophical question - why is that important to know? What added value is discovered by realizing your opponent's conclusion is not based off of bad facts or faulty reasoning, but different values?

How can you fully defend/understand your own beliefs if you don't fully understand your opponents beliefs?

It's pretty arrogant to assume there is only one way to look at things - your way.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#368

Post by refurb »

yourbandsucks wrote: post #332
refurb wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

OP is talking about a public figure, not an ideology or policy.

WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#369

Post by prewett »

radiorental wrote: post #126
frankbreetz wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this, also will we try to pass another tax cut to try to stimulate the economy. It seems to me should use tax cuts, large increases in government spending, and rate cuts to stimulate the economy on a "rainy days". Doing these things during a good economy seems foolish to me.

And Mitch McConnell recently argued the exact opposite. When asked he said (paraphrising) "Why would we increase taxes when the economy is doing well, why would we want to hurt that growth?" The mind boggles.

Mitch McConnell and the Republicans have a non-nuanced view that taxes == bad. It seems to lead to a lot of motivated cognition.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#370

Post by starlust2 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #234
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

Citation needed, and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements.

The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything.

Post reply on HN